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Expires:201501162100;;296112
FPUS51 KBTV 161133
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015

VTZ006-162100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
630 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SATURDAY...
.TODAY...SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY THIS MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. TEMPERATURE FALLING TO
AROUND 5 ABOVE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS
AROUND 14 BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS
30 BELOW. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 9 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE
MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS
30 BELOW IN THE MORNING. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS
AROUND 8 ABOVE. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID
30S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW OR SLEET LIKELY. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...SNOW LIKELY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGHS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND ZERO. 
.WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. LOWS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE ZERO.
$$

Expires:201501161200;;296124
ASUS41 KBTV 161130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-161200-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    25  12  58 S15G24    29.61F WCI  13          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    25  14  63 SW9       29.61S                  
MORRISVILLE    FLURRIES  25  16  68 S8        29.59S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     15  10  80 MISG      29.59F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   MIX PCPN  15   9  75 CALM      29.58S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    PTSUNNY   25  13  60 S9        29.64S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    27  14  59 SE5       29.65F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    12   9  87 CALM      29.67F FOG              
HIGHGATE*      LGT SNOW  25  16  67 S7        29.59S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    20  13  75 S7        29.55F                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    25  14  63 SW5       29.69S                  
SUTTON*          N/A     16 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     14 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     12 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     12 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     27  19  74 S17         N/A  WCI  14          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     28  21  74 SW25        N/A  WCI  14          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     25  18  74 S9          N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;291795
FXUS61 KBTV 160937
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
437 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BRING SNOW SQUALLS THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE MID MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT
TEMPERATURE WILL RAPIDLY DROP WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
RESULTING. TEMPERATURE WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS TO THE AREA
SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 343 AM EST FRIDAY...CURRENT COMPOSITE RADAR ALREADY IS
SHOWING THE BEGINNING OF SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF ENHANCED CAPE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND GOOD
FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SQUALLS TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN
GUSTY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS THE SQUALLS
ARE PASSING THROUGH. WHITE OUT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. TIMING
LOOKS TO BE PRE DAWN HOURS FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BY 14-15Z
WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BEFORE EXITING THE
REGION BY 16-17Z THIS MORNING. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL AID IN THE
COLD AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL CAUSE A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATE PATTERN
TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TEMPS WILL BE
FALLING ALL DAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THOSE WINDS WILL CAUSE WIND
CHILLS TO DROP DRAMATICALLY AND WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD THIS
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 343 AM EST FRIDAY... 
HEADLINES:A WIND CHILL WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ESSEX COUNTY
VERMONT IN EFFECT FROM 8PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 11AM SATURDAY. A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
NORTH AND CENTRAL VERMONT EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE GREEN
MOUNTAINS. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME
DURATION AS THE WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 8PM THIS EVENING THROUGH
11AM SATURDAY.
THIS EVENING BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING A
SURGE OF COLD AIR TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. 850 TEMPS WILL DROP FROM
AROUND -8 CURRENTLY TO -24 AROUND 7 PM THIS EVENING. THE
COMBINATION OF THE SUB ZERO TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT REACHING -20 TO -30 IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK, -15 TO -20 IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EAST OF
THE GREENS EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO DROP TO -20 TO -35 WITH THE
COLDEST WIND CHILLS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. ON THE SUMMITS WIND
THE STRONGER WINDS WILL DROP THE WIND CHILL EVEN MORE AND ACROSS
WHITEFACE AND MT MARCY WIND CHILLS WILL BE AROUND -40 TO -50 WITH
SIMILAR WIND CHILLS EXPECTED OVER MT MANSFIELD IN VT.
JUST AS QUICKLY AS THE TEMPS DROP THEY WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF SHORE AND A WARMER RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
COMBINING WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGING WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM
TO THE MID TEENS ON SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
WHICH WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THEN OVERNIGHT ON
SATURDAY THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE LEADING TO TEMPS
ONLY DROPPING A FEW DEGREES TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS OVERNIGHT. IN
THE 36 HOUR SPAN... FROM NOW THROUGH SUNDAY AT 00Z 850 TEMPS WILL
DROP FROM -6 TO -24 AND THEN RISE UP TO -2. UNDER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE AND WARM RETURN FLOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
DRAMATICALLY AND THE REGION WILL SEE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS. MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL
BE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.
AS WE FINALLY START TO SEE SOME ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THE
500MB TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING EAST AND EVENTUALLY PICK UP A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. THAT WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AND AS THE LOW APPROACHES DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
SUNDAY EXPECT SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WHILE THE VALLEYS WILL SEE THE BIGGEST CHANCE FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. 
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM EST FRIDAY...GENERALLY FAVORED THE 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTION WITH THIS FORECAST...WHICH HAS DISPLAYED BETTER RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY IN COMPARISON TO THE GFS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER DURING THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES WITH A SCENARIO DEPICTING SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AT 00Z MONDAY...WITH
SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MA AND INTO WESTERN
MAINE BY 12Z MONDAY. IT/S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE 18Z AND 00Z
GFS HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER EAST WITH THIS
CYCLOGENESIS...TO THE POINT WHERE THE SYSTEM WOULD NOT HAVE A
DIRECT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. THE 00Z ECMWF SCENARIO BRINGS THE
PROSPECT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SLEET
CENTRAL/ERN VT...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH SOME
CONTINUED OROGRAPHIC SNOWFALL CONTINUING MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT IN
MOIST NW FLOW AS LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. SHOWED A BIT STRONGER W-E GRADIENT IN POPS WITH THIS
CYCLE...RANGING FROM 35-75% (LOWEST IN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY AND
HIGHEST OVER THE CT RIVER VALLEY). TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO
SNOWCOVERED ROADS ARE POSSIBLE...AND LIKELY TO BE GREATEST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. WE/LL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
ACROSS NRN NY TO THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT.
HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST 
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. SHOULD SEE SOME 
MODERATION CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 20S 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE 
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW-MID 
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING FROM SERN ONTARIO
WILL BRING A LINE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW SQUALLS ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY BETWEEN 11-15Z. SHOULD IMPACT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
RUT WITH 20-30 MINUTE PERIOD OF 1/4-1/2SM SNOW AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS TO 25 KTS FROM THE W-NW. IT APPEARS SQUALLS WILL MOVE
THROUGH BTV 14-15Z. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFIC TIMING AS FRONT MOVES
FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE...GETTING SOME LIGHTER SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL BRING MVFR AND
BRIEF IFR VSBY TO MSS/SLK EARLY THIS MORNING. PRIMARILY VFR AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES WITH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GENERALLY S-SW 5-10
KTS. AFTER 15Z TODAY...GENERALLY W-NW WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
20-25 KTS. GENERALLY IMPROVING BACK TO VFR BUT WILL SEE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS LINGER AT SLK/MPV AND AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES FORECAST AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY. 
OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z SATURDAY - 18Z SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL. 
18Z SUNDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGS MVFR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTH COUNTRY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY DEPENDING ON
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
00Z TUESDAY - 00Z WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST 
     SATURDAY FOR VTZ004.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST 
     SATURDAY FOR VTZ003-006>008-010-016.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST 
     SATURDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

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