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Expires:201501152100;;250813
FPUS51 KBTV 151133
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015

VTZ006-152100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
630 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015
.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 13. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF
SNOW 50 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY. A
50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 19. TEMPERATURE
FALLING TO AROUND 9 ABOVE IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND
11 BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WIND
CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 25 BELOW. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 8 ABOVE. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 27 BELOW. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW
70 PERCENT. 
.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...SNOW OR SLEET LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 30.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 5 ABOVE. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS 15 TO 20. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS AROUND 20. 
$$

Expires:201501151200;;250830
ASUS41 KBTV 151130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-151200-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   -1  -5  82 CALM      30.18S FOG              
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    -4  -7  87 CALM      30.15S FOG              
MORRISVILLE    PTSUNNY  -14 -21  71 CALM      30.17S HAZE             
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     -9 -14  78 MISG      30.16S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    PTSUNNY   -1  -4  85 CALM      30.15S                  
RUTLAND*       MOSUNNY    3   0  85 CALM      30.12S                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOSUNNY   -8 -13  78 NE3       30.17S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      -5  -9  82 CALM      30.19S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      -9 -14  80 SW3       30.13S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    13  10  88 CALM      30.11S                  
SUTTON*          N/A      0 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A    -13 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     -6 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      7 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A      1  -2  85 NE1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A      9   5  85 NE9         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     12  10  92 E5          N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;250951
FXUS61 KBTV 151147
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
647 AM EST THU JAN 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
STARTING AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EARLY NEXT WEEK A COASTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 632 AM EST THURSDAY... SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED
WITH HOW COLD THE TEMPS ARE... ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM
AND ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER BASIN. STARTED WITH GFS LAMP AND
THEN HAD TO SERP IN OBS MOVING FORWARD. ADDITIONALLY COMPOSITE
RADAR IS SHOWING SOME LIGHT ECHOS JUST SOUTH OF ST LAWRENCE SO
ADDED A SILENT 14 POP TO JUST SOUTHWESTERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND TEMPS
WILL EVENTUALLY WARM UP TO THE MID TO LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY LOOKS TO CONTINUE THE THEME OF QUIET
WEATHER UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THERE HAS BEEN A LOW
LEVEL STRATUS CLOUD DECK MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK THAT HAS
BEEN TRAPPED UNDER A MILD SURFACE TEMPERATURE INVERSION. DUE TO
THAT TEMPERATURE INVERSION TEMPS ACROSS THE SUMMITS HAVE BEEN
RUNNING SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN SURROUNDING LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THE CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE INCREASING DURING THE DAY
AS WE WILL SEE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. MAX TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S SO JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EST THURSDAY...THURSDAY EVENING AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. AS THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF
THE SNOWFALL WITH ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE. NORTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTS SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POTENTIAL SO THE
HIGHER ELEVATION SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. LOOKING AT SOME
OF THE SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY
PRODUCING LOCALIZED WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. THE TIMING OF THE
SQUALLS LOOKS TO BE AROUND THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. BEST IDEA ON
TIMING WILL PUT THE SNOW SQUALLS BEGINNING 09-12Z ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK THEN BECOMING ENHANCED WITH SOME LAKE INDUCED CAPE OVER
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BETWEEN 12 TO 15Z THEN PUSHING INTO EASTERN
VERMONT BY MID MORNING ON FRIDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WINDS WILL PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY AND OVERNIGHT THE HIGHER TERRAIN
CAN EXPECT SOUTHERLY 25-35KT WINDS ESPECIALLY ON THE SUMMITS WHERE
40-50KTS IS POSSIBLE.
AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH... TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW
ZERO FOR NEARLY ALL AREAS EXCEPT RIGHT NEXT TO THE BROAD LAKE THAT
HASN'T ICED YET. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND FROM SOUTHWEST TO
THE NORTHWEST RAPIDLY BRINGING COLD AIR ADVECTION TO MUCH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THE ARCTIC FRONT EXITS THE
FORECAST AREA AN ARCTIC AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN ON SATURDAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY SO EXPECT TEMPS TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
SATURDAY BARELY GETTING INTO THE MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND MUCH OF VERMONT. THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL LIKELY STAY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AS THE WARMER RETURN FLOW WILL BE BLOCKED BY
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 346 AM EST THURSDAY...AN ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL 
SIGNIFICANT MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. OVERALL...GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWN BETWEEN
THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS...AND MOST RECENT FORECAST CYCLE ALSO
DISPLAYING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
TRANQUIL WITH LARGE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE MOVING EWD OFF THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD SET UP A
S-SWLY RETURN FLOW...AND SOUTHERLY TO SWLY WINDS (ESPECIALLY IN
THE CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS) SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A
BIT COMPARED TO EXPECTED LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT. SAT NIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...BUT MAY SEE A FEW
BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NERN VT.
DEEP MERIDIONAL TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY BECOMES 
THE PRIMARY FOCUS LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND 
GFS INDICATE THE 500MB TROUGH WILL ACQUIRE A NEGATIVE TILT AND RESULT 
IN CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE NC/VA COASTLINES SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO 
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS LOW SPINS UP QUICKLY AND PUSHES NNEWD. THE 
ECMWF IS A BIT QUICKER AND FURTHER INLAND WITH THE LOW 
TRACK...SUGGESTING EARLIER ONSET OF SNOW SUNDAY AFTN...FOLLOWED BY 
MORE OF A WINTRY MIX AND EVEN SOME RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY 
MORNING. THE 00Z ECMWF INDICATES A 986MB LOW NEAR ALB AT 12Z 
MONDAY...WHEREAS THE 00Z GFS HAS A 991MB SURFACE LOW OVER ERN CT AT 
12Z MONDAY. THE GFS SUGGESTS A SOMEWHAT COLDER SOLUTION WITH MAINLY 
SNOW FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD ACROSS NRN NY...AND A MIX OF SNOW 
WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES FOR CENTRAL/ERN VT. THESE DETAILS 
WILL BECOME IMPORTANT BUT ARE DIFFICULT TO FULLY RESOLVE AT THIS 
TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES LIKELY POPS (60-70%) SUNDAY 
NIGHT THRU MONDAY MORNING AND IS BASED ON THE COLDER GFS THERMAL 
PROFILES AT THIS POINT. SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES 
TAP SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SERN 
ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN QPF VALUES OF 1-1.5" (LIQUID EQUIVALENT). 
QUESTION WILL BE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THAT AXIS AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL 
PROFILES. THERE IS THE PROSPECT OF SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM 
SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH BEST 
POTENTIAL FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS NRN NY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS 
DETAILS BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED. 
DEEP...VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW PULLS SLOWLY AWAY THROUGH SRN 
QUEBEC/ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY DURING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AFTER A 
LULL WITH THE POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL DRYSLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON... BROAD 
REGION OF 90+% 1000-500MB RH REMAINS WITHIN NWLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER 
THE REGION...SUGGESTING POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF OROGRAPHIC/UPSLOPE 
SNOWFALL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL 
ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SNOW IN UPSLOPE AREAS INCLUDING THE NRN 
ADIRONDACKS....AND CENTRAL/NRN GREENS (AND WESTERN SLOPE 
COMMUNITIES). TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE GENERALLY 
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. SOME DRYING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO 
WEDNESDAY WITH TRANSITION FROM CYCLONIC FLOW TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW 
REGIME. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE 
PERIOD...WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND 
BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 20S FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...LOCALIZED AREAS OF 3-4SM BR (MPV/BTV) AND
MVFR STRATUS (OVC015-020 AT SLK) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14-15Z
BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGHER TERRAIN MAY BE OBSCURED AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN GREEN MTNS AND WITHIN THE
ADIRONDACK REGION. OTHERWISE...VFR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS INITIALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT WILL SEE LIGHT
S-SW FLOW DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING 180-190DEG AT
5-10 KTS THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD VFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS WELL...AS REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SEWD
FROM ONTARIO AND SWRN QUEBEC. IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BRING IFR
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS WITH BRIEF 1/4-1/2SM VSBY
10-14Z FRIDAY ACROSS NRN NY INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TAF
LOCATIONS. WILL ALSO SEE A SHARP NWLY WIND SHIFT 09-12Z FRIDAY
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY GUSTY IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KMSS WHERE VALLEY CHANNELED SWLY
FLOW MAY REACH 15G25KTS LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRIDAY - 00Z SATURDAY...ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS FRIDAY MORNING. NWLY WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
TRENDING VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.
00Z SATURDAY - 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z MONDAY - 00Z TUESDAY...DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL BRING
PROSPECT FOR IFR CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH SNOW AND MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. IMPACT TO
AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS DUE TO SNOW/ICY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. HIR TRRN OBSCD.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

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