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Expires:201501272100;;790576
FPUS51 KBTV 271132
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
629 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

VTZ006-272100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
629 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015
.TODAY...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS AROUND 12.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 6 ABOVE. NORTH WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...
THEN PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 15. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLDER WITH LOWS 1 BELOW TO 7 BELOW
ZERO. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SNOW LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW
70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. MUCH
COLDER WITH LOWS 5 BELOW TO 10 BELOW ZERO. 
.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 5 TO 10 ABOVE.
LOWS AROUND 10 BELOW. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 10 BELOW. HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 
$$

Expires:201501271200;;790717
ASUS41 KBTV 271130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-271200-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY     8  -2  63 N10       29.96F WCI  -6          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY     9  -1  64 N8        29.87F                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    11  -2  56 N8        29.92F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     14  -2  49 MISG      29.85F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY     6   0  74 N16G23    29.88F WCI -12          
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY     7   0  72 N5        29.80F                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT SNOW  12   7  80 N8G20     29.80F VSB 3/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR       8  -3  61 N10       30.00S WCI  -7          
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY     6  -4  63 N17       29.92S WCI -13          
BENNINGTON     FLURRIES  12   6  77 NW6       29.74F                  
SUTTON*          N/A      9 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     10 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     14 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      1 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     10   1  67 N6          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     10   5  79 N24         N/A  WCI -10          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     10   1  67 NW25        N/A  WCI -10          
$$

Expires:No;;790716
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER. MORE LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 635 AM EST TUESDAY...FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK
AND ONLY CHANGES AT 630 AM WERE TO MATCH CURRENT T/TD TRENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. I AM GROWING A BIT CONCERNED ON OUR SNOWFALL
TOTALS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD WITH LATEST
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST DRY LOWER LEVELS WILL TEND TO
OVERCOME MID LEVEL DYNAMICS FOSTERING A GENERAL EROSION OF THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD ACROSS OUR AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE NORTHWEST IS
APPEARING TO BE BLOCKED BY THE INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND ACROSS EC/SE
NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS NOT AN UNCOMMON OCCURRENCE...BUT DIFFICULT TO
PREDICT UNTIL IT DEVELOPS. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE
OVER THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS BUT NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 321 AM EST TUESDAY...
INTENSE STORM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST NEAR NANTUCKET EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE
3-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 8 MB JUST NORTH OF THE 40N/-70W
BENCHMARK PER MOST RECENT MSAS ANALYSIS. A CLASSIC MILLER-B
EVOLUTION WITH INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL BANDING FEATURES PIVOTING
SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST ACROSS ERN MA/CT/LI. THE DEVIL IS IN THE
DETAILS HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO TOTAL QPF/SNOWFALL
ACROSS OUR AREA. LATEST CAM OUTPUT INCLUDING THE RAP AND HRRR ALL
COMING ON BOARD WITH FAIRLY REALISTIC SOLUTIONS SHOWING WESTERN
EDGE OF STEADIER SNOWS WILL SLOWLY PIVOT NORTH AND WEST INTO VT
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RATHER
SHARP CUTOFF IN PCPN THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST ONE PROGRESSES.
MOST PROBLEMATIC IS THE VERY COLD AND DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS OUR AREA. INDEED...LOW TO MID LEVEL DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE
LOW THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS OF MOISTENING
BEFORE STEADIER SNOWS REACH THE CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
REMAING DRY IN NRN NY UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF CLINTON/ESSEX COUNTIES.
OLD RULE OF THUMB THAT USUALLY WORKS WELL HERE IS NOT TO GO TOO
EXTREME ON SNOWFALL TOTALS IF SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND IS BEARING
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM. RARELY TO WE SEE HEAVY SNOW SWATHS IN
EXCESS OF 200 MI AND THIS STORM WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. PAST
HISTORY ALSO SUGGESTS CLIPPER BOMBS GENERALLY UNDERPERFORM UP HERE
IN LIEU OF THE MORE CLASSIC GULF COAST/SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
SYSTEMS AS LONGITUDINAL DEVELOPMENT TYPICALLY OCCURS A BIT TOO FAR
EAST FOR US. IN ANY REGARD FELT THIS MORNINGS NAM HAD THE BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AND USED ITS SOLUTION IN TANDEM WITH
BLENDED CAM QPF OUTPUT TO ARRIVE AT POP/SNOWFALL GRADIENTS ACROSS
OUR AREA. GFS IDEA BIASED ABOUT 50 MI TOO FAR SOUTH AND EAST AND
EURO QPF TOO SPREAD OUT WITH ITS COARSER RESOLUTION DESPITE A
FAIRLY ACCURATE DEPICTION OF LOW TO MID LEVEL FEATURES.
WHAT THIS ALL SPELLS IS A STEADY 5-10/6-12 INCH SNOWFALL FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES...WITH A FAIRLY QUICK DROP OFF IN SNOW
TOTALS NORTH AND WEST. A SW-NE ORIENTED BAND OF 3-7 INCHES STILL
PROGGED FROM ABOUT MIDDLEBURY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MONTPELIER AND
ST JOHNSBURY...AND A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL FROM ESSEX COUNTY
NY NORTHEAST INTO THE BURLINGTON/PLATTSBURGH VICINITY AND ST
ALBANS/FRANKLIN COUNTY. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FROM A SARANAC
LAKE TO MALONE LINE WEST. THIS IS MORE OR LESS STAYING THE COURSE
AND WE'RE NOW INTO THE WAIT AND SEE TIMEFRAME TO SEE HOW THIS ALL
PANS OUT. ALL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NO CHANGES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
BY TONIGHT OCCLUDED CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK SLOWLY NORTHEAST 
TOWARD YARMOUTH, NS WITH WESTERN EDGE OF PCPN GRADUALLY FADING AWAY 
ACROSS OUR AREA AS DEEPER LIFT AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PCPN WANE. 
SOME LIGHT TAIL-END ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE NORTH AND 
EAST...OTHERWISE TRENDING DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES 
A TAD MILDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS GIVEN CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES 
AND NEAR NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTIVE PROCESSES...MAINLY POSITIVE 
SINGLE DIGITS...LOCALLY A BIT COLDER FAR WEST WHERE SOME PARTIAL 
CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 321 AM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS EAST INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SKIES TRENDING CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH BLENDED MOS NUMBERS SUPPORTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...PERHAPS LOWER 20S FAR SOUTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 314 AM EST TUESDAY...DRY WEATHER TO START THE PERIOD AS
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. EARLY THURSDAY, THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION, INCREASING MOISTURE AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, THERE AREA DIFFERENCE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC
LOW AND THE PROGRESSION OF THE ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
LOW LOOKS TO BRING SNOW TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACCORDING TO
BOTH MODELS, THEREFORE AM FAVORING A SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF.
EXPECTING SOME LINGERING POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR.
SO EXPECT SATURDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT. AT THIS POINT,
EXPECT POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES.
ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES MODERATING IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAXES IN THE 20S AND
MINS IN THE TEENS TO L20S. BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW, COLD AIR WILL
RETURN WITH MINS OF -15F TO ZERO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MAXES
WILL REACH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SNOW. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM NORTHERLY
ARCTIC AIR HAS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF SNOW AND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO KRUT BETWEEN 09Z-
11Z...KMPV 11Z- 14Z...KBTV/KPBG 15Z-17Z...AND KSLK 16Z-18Z. KMSS
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND WEST TO REMAIN VFR.
HEAVIER SNOW WITH IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION...FOLLOWING THE SAME TRENDS AS ONSET OF SNOW APPROXIMATELY
2-4 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOW. EXPECT THIS BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO WEAKEN IN THE MID AFTERNOON, AROUND 20-22Z. AS
SNOWFALL LIGHTENS, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR.
WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 6-12 KTS THIS MORNING,
INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY (UP TO 25 KTS) INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
AT RUT AND MPV WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE SNOW WILL BE LONGEST.
EXPECT GUSTS TO SUBSIDE HEADING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY MVFR IN SNOW FROM DEEPENING
STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...ESPECIALLY VERMONT TERMINALS AND
KPBG. KMSS LIKELY TO REMAIN PCPN FREE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KPBG/KBTV WHERE NORTHERLY CHANNELING
EFFECTS MAY OCCUR.
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...TRENDING IFR/MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
STATES.
00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTING AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 122 PM EST MONDAY...THE KTYX 88D DOPPLER RADAR LOCATED NEAR
WATERTOWN NEW YORK WILL BE DOWN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS IS
DUE TO A PEDESTAL DYNAMIC FAULT. ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS HAVE
ORDERED NEW PARTS TO FIX THIS PROBLEM. HOWEVER...THE NEW PARTS
HAVE NOT ARRIVED AS OF THIS TIME AND THE KTYX RADAR WILL LIKELY
NOT BE RESTORED TO SERVICE UNTIL SOMETIME THIS WEEK.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ010>012-
     019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ004-
     007>009-018.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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