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Expires:201501282100;;834867
FPUS51 KBTV 281129
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
626 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

VTZ006-282100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
626 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015
.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING...THEN
PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 13. NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...CLEAR. COLD WITH LOWS 4 BELOW TO 10 BELOW ZERO. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER
20S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID
20S. TEMPERATURE FALLING TO AROUND 15 IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. MUCH
COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 10 BELOW. 
.SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND ZERO.
LOWS AROUND 10 BELOW. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS
AROUND ZERO. 
.MONDAY...SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS 10 TO 15. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 10 BELOW. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND ZERO. 
$$

Expires:201501281200;;835293
ASUS41 KBTV 281130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-281200-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY     7   1  76 N15       30.05R WCI -10          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY     4  -2  76 N12       29.92R WCI -12          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY     5  -3  69 N10G23    29.97R WCI -10          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A      8   0  69 MISG      29.89R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY     7  -1  70 N7        30.00R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY     3  -2  78 NW6       29.95R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    11  -2  56 N10G17    29.89R WCI  -3          
HIGHGATE*      FLURRIES   7   0  72 NW5       30.07R                  
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW   4  -2  78 NW10      29.94R WCI -12          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY     8   0  69 NW9G18    29.93R                  
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A      3 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A      9 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      1 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     10   5  79 NW6         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     12   9  85 N23         N/A  WCI  -7          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     12   5  73 NW20        N/A  WCI  -6          
$$

Expires:No;;835122
FXUS61 KBTV 281133
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
633 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING FLURRIES WILL END THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 
SKIES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST INTO 
THE REGION. CLEAR AND COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH 
OVERHEAD. BY LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD LIGHT 
SNOWS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE 
TRACKS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MUCH COLDER AIR 
RETURNS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOWS 
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 633 AM EST WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE VT SIDE OF THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AS CONVERGENT FLOW IS ACTING ON REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME CONTINUED VERY LIGHT SNOWS/FLURRIES. LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AND ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY LATE
MORNING IF NOT EARLIER. ALSO ADJUSTED T/TD DATASETS TO BLEND INTO
CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...ESSENTIALLY NOISE-LEVEL TWEAKS.
REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. HAVE A GREAT DAY. PRIOR
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY... 
THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PULL SLOWLY AWAY INTO
THE MARITIMES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH THE LOW GRADUALLY LOSING INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER
CONDITIONS...BEING GRADUALLY REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THUS WINDS SLOWLY ABATE AND ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES/LIGHT SHSN WILL COME TO AN END BY AFTERNOON.
CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WILL TREND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BY
DAYS END AS HIGHS TOP OUT GENERALLY IN THE TEENS PER BLENDED MODEL
OUTPUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EST WEDNESDAY...NARROW RIDGE AXIS THEN BUILDS ATOP
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH A
FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT WINDS IDEAL RADIATIONAL EFFECTS ARE
EXPECTED AND I TRENDED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
OFFERING MINIMUMS GENERALLY IN THE -5 TO -15F RANGE. CUSTOMARY
VARIABILITY WILL EXIST HOWEVER AND I IMAGINE OUR TYPICAL COLDER
LOCALES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS INTO NC/NE VT MAY APPROACH -20F BY
MORNING. MILDEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...AROUND ZERO GIVE OR
TAKE A FEW DEGREES.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXITS EAST DURING THURSDAY AND IS QUICKLY 
REPLACED BY QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ADVANCING FROM THE 
OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES STATES. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FURTHER 
NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM...TAKING A MEAN SLV TRACK ALONG THE INTL 
BORDER BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AMPLE WARM THERMAL/MOISTURE 
ADVECTION ON THE NOSE OF ROBUST LOW TO MID LEVEL JET ENERGY SHOULD 
ALLOW WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR REGION TOWARD 
EVENING AND CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY 
BEFORE TAPERING BACK. 
HARD TO PINPOINT EXACT SNOW TOTALS...BUT CURRENT FORECAST TRACK
WOULD FAVOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH/NRN MTS WHERE A
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE TYPES
OF CLIPPER-LOW TRACKS GENERALLY FAVOR THE FAR NRN SLV INTO THE
MONTREAL AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST TOTALS HOWEVER. IN THIS AREA STRONG
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL OCCUR AS MEAN NORTHEASTERLY PBL FLOW
IS INTERSECTED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTH. TIME WILL TELL...BUT EARLY MODEL OUTPUT USING MEAN 15:1
SNOW RATIOS (16-17:1 MTS) WOULD SUGGEST AS MUCH SHOWING A GENERAL
3-6 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR AREA WITH HIGHER TOTALS (FROM 6 TO 8
INCHES OR SO) IN A SW-NE STRIPE ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER FROM
MASSENA THROUGH MONTREAL TOWARD SHERBROOKE. SOME SHADOWING ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IF LOW TRACK VERIFIES.
INDEED...CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT SHOWING A ROBUST LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
JET OF 45 KTS IN THE VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BRIDGED ALOFT
BY A 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET...CLASSIC SHADOWING
SIGNATURES. AGAIN...TIME WILL TELL. AT THIS POINT I'VE LEANED
TOWARD CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE WITH HIGHEST
TOTALS TOWARD THE INTL BORDER.
IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE OFFERED
WITH HIGH THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...AND HOLDING NEAR
STEADY THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS SYSTEM PASSES
DURING FRIDAY...ASSOCIATED ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWING INTO
THE REGION. THUS HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH READINGS FALLING STEADILY IN THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG
POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION BEGINS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 302 AM EST WEDNESDAY...DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AS WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST RESULTING IN UPSLOPE SNOW. EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
END SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS DRY
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEMS
TRACK AND STRENGTH. SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS LAGGING BEHIND ECMWF TRACK AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MORE POSITIVELY TILTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. GFS
BEGINS NEGATIVE TILTING EARLIER, HENCE THE SLOWER TRACK. BY MONDAY
EVENING, AS BOTH MODELS BRING THE SURFACE LOW OVER/NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS, RAPID STRENGTHENING IS DEPICTED. THROUGHOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW, BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT MOISTURE FEED FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST WITH 250MB JET EXCEEDING 125KTS
STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES UP TO THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. SO WHILE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE WILL HAVE A VERY COLD START TO THE PERIOD
AS 925MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -20C TO -15C. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO AS LOW AS -18F. SATURDAY WILL
REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE DAY. GFS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AHEAD OF NEXT WEEKS STORM, WHILE THE FASTER MOVING ECMWF
BRINGS IN REINFORCING COLD AIR BY LATE MONDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT
WARMEST DAY TO BE SUNDAY WITH MAXES IN THE TEENS. DEPENDING ON
TRACK AND PROGRESSION OF STORM, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY BEFORE MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR WITH A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS CREATING
MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...MAINLY AFFECTING KBTV
BRIEFLY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 14Z/15Z AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL SITES. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH SCT 030-060. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
ON NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW, LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THE
AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY FOR ALL BUT KSLK/KMSS
WHICH WILL SEE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. SOME GUSTINESS EXPECTED AT
KBTV AND KRUT AT 15-25KTS. KPBG/KSLK AND KMPV MAY ALSO SEE A FEW
GUSTS.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
12Z SATURDAY ONWARD...VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...KGM

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