Expires:201503142000;;877038 FPUS51 KBTV 140730 ZFPBTV ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 327 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 VTZ006-142000- LAMOILLE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE 327 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 .TODAY...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. .TONIGHT...RAIN LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SNOW OR RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. .SUNDAY...SNOW. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. .SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 14. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE. .WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 20. LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE. .THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE. $$ Expires:201503141100;;884057 ASUS41 KBTV 141030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-141100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON CLOUDY 36 14 40 S5 30.13F MONTPELIER CLOUDY 26 21 81 CALM 30.17F MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 28 22 78 CALM 30.15F ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 29 21 72 MISG 30.16F LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 28 15 57 SE3 30.15F MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 31 21 66 CALM 30.14F RUTLAND* CLOUDY 28 12 50 SE13 30.14F WCI 18 SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 27 19 72 CALM 30.20S HIGHGATE* N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A NEWPORT* CLOUDY 25 18 74 CALM 30.14F BENNINGTON CLOUDY 35 21 56 W3 30.15F SUTTON* N/A 27 N/A N/A MISG N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 25 N/A N/A MISG N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 30 N/A N/A CALM N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 32 23 69 S10 N/A COLCHESTER RF* N/A 32 23 69 S17 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 32 19 59 S8 N/A $$ Expires:No;;879348 FXUS61 KBTV 140821 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 421 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL DRAG A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY, AND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A MIX OF DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. ANY RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 420 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. TREND TOWARDS LESS PRECIPITATION AMONGST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED WITH THE 00Z RUNS WITH THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING GENERALLY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA AND A STRONG MID- LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING IN BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. THUS, OUTSIDE OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WE WON'T SEE ALL THAT MUCH PRECIP TODAY. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THIS MORNING THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP, BUT ANY FZDZ SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO PLAIN DZ BY MID-DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 420 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNSET WITH PRECIPITATION FILLING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST FORCING LIES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VERMONT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE. A GENERAL 1-3" OF SNOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE VALLEYS, WITH 4-7" LIKELY IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT, AND 6-12" ATOP THE HIGHEST SUMMITS OF NORTHERN VERMONT FROM MT. MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE GENERALLY ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER SO SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AND WET AND COULD CAUSE SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. SNOW TAPERS OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS EASES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. SKIES WILL TREND TOWARDS CLEAR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH WE'LL SEE AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER AGAIN AS HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCE FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING. BULK OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT SO READ ON FURTHER BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THAT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 342 AM EDT SATURDAY...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AND LARGELY FOLLOWED A BLENDED GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THIS PACKAGE. UNFORTUNATELY, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW THAT YET ANOTHER SHARP AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHSN AND LOCALIZED SQUALLS. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE, BUT BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUESDAY INTO THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AS ANONYMOUSLY DEEP POLAR LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. HEMISPHERIC ANALYSIS SHOWS SOURCE OF THIS AIR IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN ALASKA WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS RANGED IN THE -10 TO -20F RANGE ON FRIDAY. OF COURSE THIS WILL MODIFY CONSIDERABLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR LATITUDES, BUT SAFE TO SAY DAILY DEPARTURES AS LOW AS 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WED/THU OF NEXT WEEK AND HAVE LEANED ON THE LOWER END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN REGARD TO MAX TEMPERATURES. SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...BKN/OVC VFR CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD MVFR/IFR FROM 15Z ONWARD AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT PCPN MOVE INTO THE AREA. PCPN SHOULD BE GENERALLY SPOTTY THROUGH 00Z, TRENDING STEADIER THEREAFTER AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LOW PIVOT INTO THE AREA. SOME CONCERN THAT WHILE SPOTTY, THERMAL PROFILES MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA AT KMSS TERMINAL THIS MORNING, AND POSSIBLY AT KMPV TERMINAL LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. CONFIDENCE OF -FZRA OCCURRENCE HIGHEST AT KMSS. AFTER 00Z -RA/-RASN TREND STEADIER WITH UPPER LOW APPROACH. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 21Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN -SN/-SHSN TAPERING OFF WITH LESS COVERAGE AFTER 15Z. 21Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE. 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR SHSN WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. 12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-007. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...LAHIFF LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...JMG - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html