Expires:201503142000;;877038
FPUS51 KBTV 140730
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
327 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
VTZ006-142000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
327 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.TODAY...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
THIS MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN OR DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS AROUND 40. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
40 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...RAIN LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SNOW OR RAIN LIKELY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
90 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...SNOW. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 14. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE.
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 20.
LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE.
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S.
LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE.
$$
Expires:201503141100;;884057
ASUS41 KBTV 141030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-141100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON CLOUDY 36 14 40 S5 30.13F
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 26 21 81 CALM 30.17F
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 28 22 78 CALM 30.15F
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 29 21 72 MISG 30.16F
LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 28 15 57 SE3 30.15F
MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 31 21 66 CALM 30.14F
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 28 12 50 SE13 30.14F WCI 18
SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 27 19 72 CALM 30.20S
HIGHGATE* N/A N/A N/A N/A MISG N/A
NEWPORT* CLOUDY 25 18 74 CALM 30.14F
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 35 21 56 W3 30.15F
SUTTON* N/A 27 N/A N/A MISG N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 25 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 30 N/A N/A CALM N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 32 23 69 S10 N/A
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 32 23 69 S17 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 32 19 59 S8 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;879348
FXUS61 KBTV 140821
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
421 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL DRAG A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY, AND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. A MIX OF DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS
THE WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
TRANSITION TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. ANY RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW TONIGHT
WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. TREND TOWARDS LESS PRECIPITATION AMONGST HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUED WITH THE 00Z RUNS WITH THE BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING GENERALLY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE BTV CWA AND A STRONG MID-
LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVING IN BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. THUS, OUTSIDE
OF THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY WE WON'T SEE ALL THAT MUCH PRECIP TODAY. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS THROUGH THIS MORNING THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT DRIZZLE AND/OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH ANY PRECIP THAT DOES DEVELOP, BUT ANY FZDZ
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO PLAIN DZ BY MID-DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EDT SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ATTENDING COLD FRONT SHIFTS INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNSET WITH
PRECIPITATION FILLING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST FORCING LIES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
LIKELY THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN VERMONT AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST
AND PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE OROGRAPHIC IN NATURE. A GENERAL
1-3" OF SNOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE VALLEYS, WITH 4-7" LIKELY IN
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT, AND 6-12" ATOP THE HIGHEST
SUMMITS OF NORTHERN VERMONT FROM MT. MANSFIELD TO JAY PEAK. SNOW
TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE GENERALLY ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO THE WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER SO SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AND WET AND COULD CAUSE SOME
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
SNOW TAPERS OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
EASES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. SKIES WILL
TREND TOWARDS CLEAR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH WE'LL SEE AN INCREASE IN SKY COVER AGAIN AS
HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCE FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY EVENING. BULK OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT SO READ ON FURTHER BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 342 AM EDT SATURDAY...GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AND LARGELY
FOLLOWED A BLENDED GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THIS PACKAGE.
UNFORTUNATELY, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW THAT YET ANOTHER SHARP
AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHSN AND LOCALIZED SQUALLS. SOME MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE, BUT BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS
AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT BY TUESDAY INTO
THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME AS ANONYMOUSLY DEEP POLAR LONGWAVE TROUGH
BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. HEMISPHERIC
ANALYSIS SHOWS SOURCE OF THIS AIR IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS
CENTRAL/NRN ALASKA WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS RANGED IN THE -10 TO -20F
RANGE ON FRIDAY. OF COURSE THIS WILL MODIFY CONSIDERABLY BY THE
TIME IT REACHES OUR LATITUDES, BUT SAFE TO SAY DAILY DEPARTURES AS
LOW AS 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL BE POSSIBLE BY WED/THU OF NEXT
WEEK AND HAVE LEANED ON THE LOWER END OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN
REGARD TO MAX TEMPERATURES. SOME SLIGHT MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS
IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY BUT VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...BKN/OVC VFR CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD
MVFR/IFR FROM 15Z ONWARD AS LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT PCPN
MOVE INTO THE AREA. PCPN SHOULD BE GENERALLY SPOTTY THROUGH 00Z,
TRENDING STEADIER THEREAFTER AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LOW
PIVOT INTO THE AREA. SOME CONCERN THAT WHILE SPOTTY, THERMAL
PROFILES MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF -FZRA AT KMSS TERMINAL THIS
MORNING, AND POSSIBLY AT KMPV TERMINAL LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. CONFIDENCE OF
-FZRA OCCURRENCE HIGHEST AT KMSS. AFTER 00Z -RA/-RASN TREND
STEADIER WITH UPPER LOW APPROACH. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND LESS
THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 21Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR IN -SN/-SHSN
TAPERING OFF WITH LESS COVERAGE AFTER 15Z.
21Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR SHSN
WITH ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE.
12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...TRENDING VFR WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
VTZ003-004-007.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.
To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html
