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Expires:201504282000;;922308
FPUS51 KBTV 280749
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
345 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

VTZ006-282000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
346 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN CLEARING. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. 
$$

Expires:201504281100;;928893
ASUS41 KBTV 281030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-281100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   42  35  76 N9        29.85R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    41  33  73 MISG      29.83R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    42  33  70 N6        29.84R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     42  34  73 MISG      29.78R                  
LYNDONVILLE*     N/A     39  30  69 NW16      29.81R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    39  39 100 NW7       29.84R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    39  36  87 N5        29.81R                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOSUNNY   44  32  62 N13G21    29.77R                  
HIGHGATE*      PTSUNNY   40  37  89 N6        29.87R                  
NEWPORT*         N/A     37  33  85 N10       29.84R                  
BENNINGTON     SUNNY     43  36  76 N7        29.78R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     37 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     30 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     43  37  81 N3          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     41  37  87 N16         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     45  37  76 NW20        N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;922643
FXUS61 KBTV 280757
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BROUGHT COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER TO THE REGION 
OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO LOSE INFLUENCE ON THE AREA 
TODAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. 
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE 
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES 
INTO THE REGION. EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY INTO 
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...PESKY LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKE A CONCERTED EFFORT TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC TODAY, GRADUALLY LOSING IT'S
INFLUENCE ON OUR AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE MECHANISM FOR LIFT MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS
NC/NE VT. WE WILL HOWEVER REMAIN UNDER WEAKLY SHEARED CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT SO A FORECAST OF VARIABLE CLOUDS WITH OCCASIONAL BREAKS
IN THE OVERCAST/PARTIAL SUNSHINE APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TODAY.
AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW A MORE DEEPLY MIXED PBL BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS SO USING STANDARD DRY ADIABATIC
MIXING RATES FROM 925 MB YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S EAST TO WEST. WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY THIS MORNING,
TRENDING A TAD GUSTY BY THIS AFTERNOON AS PBL DEEPENS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 357 AM EDT TUESDAY...WITH LOSS OF HEATING VARIABLE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD TREND CLR/PC OVERNIGHT AS WINDS ABATE AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. BLENDED MOS LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S APPEAR ON TRACK.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE 
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO OUR AREA. 
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN DOES REMAIN SOMEWHAT BLOCKED TO OUR NORTH AND 
EAST HOWEVER, SO THE COMBINATION OF RETROGRADING, THOUGH THINNING 
MARITIME MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM AN EVOLVING CLOSED 
LOW TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME VARIABLE 
CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR REGION. REGARDLESS, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (COOLEST NC/NE 
VT) AND OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S THE FEEL 
OF SPRING WILL CERTAINLY HAVE RETURNED.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 337 AM EDT TUESDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DIG IN JUST SOUTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND BEGIN TO
PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE. THE
NET RESULT FOR US LOCALLY IS THAT DEPENDING ON THE MODEL YOU
BELIEVE, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
COULD GENERATE SOME UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. I
TRENDED THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARDS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH A SLIGHT ECMWF INFLUENCE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHADOWING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE
RESULTING POP GRIDS SHOW 10-15 PERCENT FOR POPS.
AS THE SYSTEM PHASES IS DEVELOPS A PRETTY GOOD MIDLATITUDE
CYCLONE HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS IS THAT THE WHOLE
SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND THEN AS IT MOVES NORTH OFFSHORE
IT WILL HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR AREA OTHER THAN TO BRING NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
WITH THE SURFACE CYCLONE OFFSHORE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL AND
CORRESPONDING SURFACE RIDGE BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WHICH
WILL LEAD TO PLEASANT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND.
"SPRING" LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE A WELCOMED CHANGE IN PATTERN
NEXT WEEKEND. GONE WILL BE THE OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND WELCOME TO
WARMER TEMPS WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THE PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR IN HOW WARM WE
GET BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE 925MB TEMPS IN THE 9-11C RANGE
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MONDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE MORE FIRMLY IN PLACE AND 925MB AND 850MB
TEMPS UNDER DRY AIR WILL SUPPORT TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION LOWER THAN 2000 FEET. 925 TEMPS ON
MONDAY ARE APPROACHING 13 DEGREES C WITH WARMER TEMPS TO NORTHWEST
OVER ONTARIO AS HIGH AS 15. THE WARM 850/925MB TEMPS COMBINED WITH
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW THE AREA TO WARM UP SLIGHTLY
MORE THAN OVER THE WEEKEND. I'VE CURRENTLY GOT MAX TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND OVER THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.
LOW TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WILL SEE A SIMILAR WARMING
TREND AS THE MAX TEMPS. EXPECT OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING TO SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA
AND BY THE MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF MVFR CEILINGS AT SLK AND MPV OVERNIGHT.
THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS VFR TOMORROW AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN
LEADING TO LIKELY A MIX OF BKN/SCT VFR CLOUD COVER TRENDING
TOWARDS IMPROVING SKY CONDITIONS. NO EXPECTED VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS TOMORROW WE WILL BECOME WELL MIXED DOWN TO THE
SURFACE. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL MIXED EXPECT THE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS TO PICK UP GUSTING 15-20KTS. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY AS THE NORTHERN NEW YORK SITES ARE SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING NORTHEASTERLY 05-07KTS WHEREAS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS KEEPING WINDS STRONGER ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 9-11KTS GUSTING TO 17KTS AT PBG AND MPV AS OF THE
LATEST OBS. UPSTREAM OBS ALL POINT TO VFR CONDITIONS SO THE MVFR
AT SLK AND MPV WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT SCT/BKN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS 
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 124 PM EDT MONDAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAS BEEN
SPORADICALLY MISSING AT TIMES FROM THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER
OBSERVING SYSTEM) AT RUTLAND (KRUT) SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL
AIRPORT. THE FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS PROBLEM AND HAVE
OPENED A TROUBLE TICKET. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY
FOR THE AWOS AT RUTLAND VERMONT. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS
TIME AS TO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT WILL BE RESTORED TO
SERVICE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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