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Expires:201504292000;;964240
FPUS51 KBTV 290733
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015

VTZ006-292000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
330 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 60. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. EAST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 70. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS AROUND 50. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S. 
$$

Expires:201504291100;;971056
ASUS41 KBTV 291030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-291100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOSUNNY   35  32  88 CALM      29.71R                  
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   38  34  85 CALM      29.72R                  
MORRISVILLE    PTSUNNY   33  31  92 CALM      29.70R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     35  33  92 MISG      29.65R                  
LYNDONVILLE*     N/A     44  32  62 W8        29.68R                  
MIDDLEBURY*      N/A     34  34 100 CALM      29.70R                  
RUTLAND*       SUNNY     34  30  86 SE6       29.70R                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOSUNNY   36  33  89 CALM      29.67R                  
HIGHGATE*        N/A     33  32  96 CALM      29.71R                  
NEWPORT*         N/A     40  33  78 N5        29.70R                  
BENNINGTON     SUNNY     34  31  88 CALM      29.70R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     43 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     37 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     36 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     45  37  76 NE1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     46  37  71 N5          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     37  37 100 N3          N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;964284
FXUS61 KBTV 290735
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
335 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUDS, DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL 
BE THE RULE OF THUMB WEATHERWISE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY AS 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MAINTAINS GENERAL CONTROL OF DAILY 
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT 
WEEK AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA. OUTSIDE A STRAY LIGHT 
SHOWER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY 
WHEN A SURFACE FRONT BRINGS A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE
FOR TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SANDWICHED ACROSS OUR AREA
BETWEEN DISTANT MARITIME LOW PRESSURE AND ADDITIONAL UPPER CLOSED
ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESPOND IN KIND TO THIS LATTER FEATURE AND
TREND PREDOMINANTLY EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
INDEED, HYSPLIT 500M BACK TRAJECTORY ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR SOURCE AIR
AT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON IS ORIGINATING FAR TO OUR NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN LABRADOR AND THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. THIS WILL ALLOW
THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO OUR EAST/NORTHEAST AND MODEST COLD
THERMAL ADVECTION TO BACK WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE DRY HOWEVER,
SO OUTSIDE A STRAY SPRINKLE FAR NORTHEAST NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. AS A SIDE NOTE THIS MORNING'S 00Z GFS MOS POP VALUES
APPEAR GROSSLY HIGH AND IGNORED IT'S OUTPUT IN THAT REGARD.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT CLOSER TO SOME OF THE
NON-MOS DATASETS RANGING FROM 55 TO 62 CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN VT
WHERE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE SOONER, AND GENERALLY FROM 62 TO 68
DEGREES ELSEWHERE, WARMEST IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE SUNNY
TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY.
WINDS LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WILL
GENERALLY FEATURE VARIABLE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. AFOREMENTIONED GREAT LAKES UPPER
CLOSED LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DROPPING SOUTHEAST TO OUR
WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD, EVENTUALLY PROVIDING NEEDED
ENERGY INPUT FOR AN EVOLVING OCEAN STORM WELL EAST OF THE NC/VA
CAPES LONG ABOUT FRIDAY. LOWER TO MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA
WILL CONTINUE FROM A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM AND ACT TO AID IN RESIDUAL
MARITIME MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA FROM TIME TO
TIME. THAT'S NOT TO SAY BY ANY MEANS IT WILL BE GLOOMY. AT LEAST
SOME PARTIAL SUN IS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME AND
WITH MEAN 925 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM +6 TO +11C EACH DAY,
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE 58 TO
65 RANGE IN MOST SPOTS, POSSIBLY A TAD WARMER IN THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. WITH LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD HOLD IN
THE 35 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE WITH CUSTOMARY VARIABILITY, AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ECHOING THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...
THERE REALLY HASN'T BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE. SEASONALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE TREND IN THE MODELS IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EAST COAST AND THE ASSOCIATED COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND REALLY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO NEW
ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. AS OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SHORT WAVE VORT THAT COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON. RH
PROFILES IN THE ECMWF AND GFS DONT SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY IN
PRECIP SO I CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS LINE OF THINKING WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FROM THERE THE ONLY
OTHER REAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND BRING A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP.
IT'S AN EXCITING TIME ON THE TEMPERATURE FRONT. OVER THE WEEKEND 
THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND THAT SEES TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER 
70S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 
30S TO MID 40S WARMING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH 
TUESDAY. DAY TIME TEMPS WILL DO THE SAME WARMING FROM THE MID 60S ON 
SATURDAY TO THE MID 70S BY MONDAY AND JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER ON 
TUESDAY AS THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE SHORT WAVE HAMPERS THE TEMPS BY 
A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE CLOUD COVER FROM
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS JUST REACHING THE NEW
HAMPSHIRE/VERMONT BORDER BUT ISN'T IMPACTING ANY OF THE LOCAL TAF
SITES. THUS ALL SITES ARE REPORTING SKC OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS. MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS THAT THERE
WILL BE A LAYER OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT BACKS IN FROM THE EAST
WHICH WILL RESULT IN INCREASE SCT-BKN CLOUDS TOMORROW IN THE
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE EXPECT THAT THE MOISTURE
WILL GET CLOSE TO BUT NOT ALL THE WAY TO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SO
I'VE ONLY GOT SCT040-050 FOR BTV AND WESTWARD. MPV WILL SEE THE
MOST CLOUD COVER BUT EVEN THERE THE BKN040 CLOUD DECK WILL STAY
ABOVE VFR RESTRICTIONS. LIGHT N-NW TO CALM WINDS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT UNDER A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...PICKING UP AGAIN
8-10KTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS 16-18KTS AT TIMES - FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TAF SITES EASTWARD - 15-22Z WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT SCT/BKN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR SHOWERS 
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL OFFSHORE.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAS BEEN
SPORADICALLY MISSING FROM THE AWOS (AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING
SYSTEM) AT RUTLAND (KRUT) SOUTHERN VERMONT REGIONAL AIRPORT. THE
FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS PROBLEM AND HAVE OPENED A
TROUBLE TICKET. THE FAA HAS MAINTENANCE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE
AWOS AT RUTLAND VERMONT. NO ESTIMATE IS AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME AS
TO WHEN THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL AGAIN CONSISTENTLY BE
REPORTED IN THE KRUT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...DEAL
EQUIPMENT...WFO BTV

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