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Expires:201505162000;;739326
FPUS51 KBTV 160844
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
441 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015

VTZ006-162000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
441 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015
.TODAY...CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
AROUND 70. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN CLEARING. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND
10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
$$

Expires:201505161100;;743288
ASUS41 KBTV 161030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.

VTZ001>019-161100-
_____VERMONT_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    61  46  57 S15G24    30.08R                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  51  48  89 CALM      30.17R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    53  47  79 CALM      30.14R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     51  44  77 MISG      30.13R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    48  42  80 CALM      30.16R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    55  55 100 CALM      30.12R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    55  45  67 SE3       30.14R                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  51  48  89 CALM      30.16R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    56  46  67 SE5       30.08S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    52  41  67 S3        30.14R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    54  52  93 N6        30.12F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     48 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     55  48  76 SE5         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     57  45  62 SW18        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     57  48  72 SW7         N/A                   
$$

Expires:No;;737437
FXUS61 KBTV 160808
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
408 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...AS A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...WITH VALLEY
HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT SATURDAY...WEAK/LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO PUSH EWD ACROSS VT EARLY THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH
ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF NY.
BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR
REGION...THUS WILL SEE CLOUDY SKIES BUT JUST A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN
INCH FOR MOST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL SEE A FEW BREAKS IN
THE OVERCAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING BTV
4KM WRF AND NCAR 3KM WRF ENSEMBLE...IT APPEARS POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS BEGINNING AROUND
17-18Z...WITH SHOWERS MOVING EWD ACROSS VT THRU THE AFTERNOON HRS.
THE 00Z NAM PROJECTS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...PROVIDING WEAK BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
ALSO...NOTING WEAK SBCAPE VALUES AND SPC CALIBRATED SREF TSTM POPS
IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTN IN CENTRAL VT. CAN/T RULE OUT
A FEW STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ADIRONDACKS EWD ACROSS VT. HIGH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS
GENERALLY 5-10 MPH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT SATURDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS PUSH EAST OF
THE CT RIVER VALLEY DURING THE EVENING HRS...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FORCING MOVE EWD INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS SHOULD
SET UP A QUIET NIGHT...WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST. DEWPOINTS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE A BUILDING RIDGE - SURFACE AND ALOFT - ACROSS
THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH 1000-500MB RH VALUES FALLING
BELOW 30 PERCENT WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING OVER THE
NORTH COUNTRY. WITH 850-700MB RIDGE AXIS CENTERED TO OUR
WEST...WILL SEE SOME LIGHT NWLY WINDS WITH DAYTIME MIXING...MAINLY
5-10 MPH DURING THE PEAK HEATING HRS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION THREAT...AND WITH 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO +11C TO
+12C IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...ANTICIPATE DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80F IN
THE CT...CHAMPLAIN...AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
CONTINUED QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
ON MONDAY...MAY SEE A PUSH OF MARINE AIR WESTWARD INTO ERN VT
ASSOCIATED WITH BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PER 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF
SOLUTIONS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT WITH THE 00Z GFS. HAVE SHOWN A
STRONG EAST-WEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS VT) ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR ERN VT...AND THEN IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MID 80S FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WWD. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
(FRANKLIN/ST. LAWRENCE COUNTIES) MONDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ON WRN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES
INTO WRN/CENTRAL NY LATE MONDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS 18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. 
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM EDT SATURDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AT THIS TIME...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALL
CHANGE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN...BUT SO WILL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...DESPITE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS. IN
FACT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO THE 3500-4500 FOOT LEVEL AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES AND PERSIST AT THIS LEVEL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR NOW THROUGH ABOUT 12Z AND FROM 18Z-02Z...BUT
AGAIN VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
18Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR/MVFR. SCT SHOWERS.
00Z WEDNESDAY ONWARD...VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/JMG

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