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Expires:201505302000;;399169
FPUS51 KBTV 300725
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015


VTZ006-302000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
321 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...
THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...BECOMING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN
80 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. LESS HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. 

$$


Expires:201505301100;;406766
ASUS41 KBTV 301030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-301100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTSUNNY   70  56  61 S17G28    30.05S                  
MONTPELIER     PTSUNNY   60  56  86 CALM      30.16R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    61  56  83 S5        30.09F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     59  54  83 MISG      30.11R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   PTSUNNY   62  57  86 SE7       30.14S                  
MIDDLEBURY*      N/A     69  56  62 S8        30.11S                  
RUTLAND*       MOSUNNY   63  54  72 SE7       30.15R                  
SPRINGFIELD    SUNNY     54  53  97 CALM      30.17R                  
HIGHGATE*        N/A     70  57  65 S12G18    30.01S                  
NEWPORT*         N/A     61  57  86 S5        30.09S                  
BENNINGTON     SUNNY     59  55  87 CALM      30.16S                  
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     52 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     57 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     66  57  72 S13         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     63  55  77 SW23        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     66  59  77 S12         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;401462
FXUS61 KBTV 300818
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
418 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. 
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWN POURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS 
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS 
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ON MONDAY. 
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S TODAY...WITH BREEZY 
SOUTH WINDS...BUT A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR SUNDAY 
INTO EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A BOARD SOUTHWEST FLW ALOFT
WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO OUR
REGION...AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRNT. THIS MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY ACROSS OUR CWA...WHICH WILL LIMIT SFC
HEATING/INSTABILITY AS LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BACK OFF ON
CAPE/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ACROSS OUR CWA. RAP13/NAM 12 AND GFS
SHOW CAPE VALUES BTWN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG...WITH LI'S BTWN -2C AND
-4C. SREF GUIDANCE SHOWS CALIBRATED SEVERE CHANCES OF 5 TO
10%...WHILE PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY IS BTWN 50 AND
60%. MEANWHILE...LLVL GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN...WITH
ENHANCED CHANNELING OF WINDS UP THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEYS...HELPING TO PRODUCE 0 TO 3 KM SHEAR PARAMETERS BTWN
20 AND 30 KNOTS. THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS IS LOCATED WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF
ACRS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN CANADA THRU THIS AFTN. ITS
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE STRENGTH OF STORMS THIS
AFTN...GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS...BUT
THINKING MAINLY A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM OR TWO. THINKING WINDS IN WEAK BOW LIKE LINE
SEGMENTS WOULD BE THE CONVECTIVE MODE. INGREDIENTS ARE NOT LINING
UP FOR A MAJOR OR WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK...AS BEST DYNAMICS AND SFC
CONVERGENCE WITH FRONT ARRIVES AFT 00Z TONIGHT...WHEN INSTABILITY
IS LIMITED. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO DOES SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND GIVEN PWS BTWN 1.50 AND
2.0...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.
THINKING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 0.50 TO 1.50 WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS NEAR 3.0" POSSIBLE. SOME MINOR POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHER RAINFALL
RATES...BUT GIVEN HOW DRY ITS BEEN ALL THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE RAINFALL. PROGGED 85H TEMPS AROUND 15C
SUPPORT HIGHS U70S MTNS TO MID 80S VALLEYS. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFT
04Z...WITH MAINLY LIGHT STRATO FORM RAIN LIKELY. SFC BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY...WHILE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY/MOISTURE NOW OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY STREAMS INTO OUR
REGION. THIS POTENT S/W ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LVL TROF
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP SFC LOW PRES...WHICH WILL TRAVEL ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND ENHANCE RAINFALL ACRS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY AFTN INTO
MONDAY. BOTH GFS/NAM SHOW IMPRESSIVE NOSE OF 85H JET OF 40 TO 50
KNOTS LIFTING ACRS CENTRAL NY ON SUNDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH GOOD
DEEP LAYER THETA E ADVECTION...AND RRQ OF 25H JET. THIS MOISTURE
AND STRONG LIFT WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY PER SOUNDINGS...AS WE ARE
ON THE COLD SIDE OF FRONT...WITH JUST SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING EXTREME RAINFALL RATES. HOWEVER...IF
BOUNDARY LIFTS FURTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...SOME HIGHER PREICP
RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND EXPECTED
LIFT...ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL RISES ON
LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS...BUT ONCE AGAIN NOT EXPECTING ANY LARGE
STEM RIVER FLOODING. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S/60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S. GIVEN CLOUDS AND PRECIP...AND NORTH WINDS THE DIURNAL
CHANGE WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT SATURDAY...RAIN THREAT CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSING JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
WITH TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OF THE LOW INTO FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER LOW WILL BE TRACKING FROM GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO FORECAST AREA DURING TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST OVER VERMONT...WHERE SOME
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF
ECMWF IS CORRECT...WHICH IS SLOWER WITH EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
SURFACE FEATURE AND THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. IT WILL
REMAIN COOL ON TUESDAY WITH THE WET WEATHER AND CLOUDS...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

UPPER LOW MAKES ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND 
THEN HEADS INTO EASTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS 
CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY 
AS HEIGHTS RISE WITH DEPARTURE OF UPPER LOW WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AIRMASS WARMING WITH
TIME...SO LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR (POSSIBLE MVFR MIST AT MPV) WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS TOWARDS MORNING. PRIMARY AVIATION FOCUS
WILL BE IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD...DUE TO GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED MID-
TO HIGH CLOUDS INTO SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
FURTHER INCREASE INTO THE 10-18 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS 25-28 KTS.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE MORE SCATTERED...BUT
SOME COULD TURN STRONG WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...LIGHTNING AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. BEST SHOT AT SEEING THIS
ACTIVITY AFTER 18Z WOULD BE AT MSS AND SLK...AND AFTER 22Z AT
REST OF SITES.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DEVELOPING N-NW WINDS BEHIND
SURFACE COLD FRONT. TRENDING VFR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY...BUT STALLING FRONTAL ZONE MAY RESULT IN
POSSIBLE MVFR SHOWERS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MAINLY
FOR RUT/MPV. AVIATION WX CONDITION PREDICTABILITY LOW AT THIS
POINT FROM MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 PM EDT FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR LAKE CHAMPLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS/LOCONTO
MARINE...NEILES

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