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Expires:201505312000;;446621
FPUS51 KBTV 310743
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015


VTZ006-312000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
339 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...OCCASIONAL RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BECOMING EAST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN
90 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. EAST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. 
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. 
.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. 

$$


Expires:201505311100;;453315
ASUS41 KBTV 311030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-311100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    50  46  86 N15       30.15R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    53  50  89 N15G22    30.13R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    52  48  86 N12       30.12R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     56  49  77 MISG      30.05R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    50  44  80 NW7G18    30.11R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    DRIZZLE   52  52 100 N15G24    30.10R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    55  52  88 N8        30.05R                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  66  64  93 SE6       30.00R                  
HIGHGATE*      DRIZZLE   46  45  95 N12G18    30.18R                  
NEWPORT*       DRIZZLE   46  46  97 N12G18    30.15R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    69  65  86 VRB5      29.99S                  
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     52 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     48 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     50  48  93 NW2         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     50  48  93 N24         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     50  46  87 N32         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;448267
FXUS61 KBTV 310823
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
423 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO MONDAY WITH LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY...WITH SOME ISOLATED AND VERY MINOR LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER TODAY WITH NORTH WINDS. A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR BY
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BY MIDDLE
OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT SUNDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR SHOWS DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUING TO RIDE ALONG BOUNDARY FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE NE CONUS. A LEFTOVER MCV IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
OHIO THIS MORNING AND WILL RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...PRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL. PW ANALYSIS SHOWS THE HIGHER VALUES OF
1.75 TO 2.0" GETTING SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH TODAY...ALONG WITH
THE BEST INSTABILITY. SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY MOIST AND STABLE
AIRMASS ACRS OUR CWA THRU TONIGHT...SUPPORTING OCCASIONAL
RAIN...BUT NOT THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT OR HIGHER RAINFALL RATES WE
SAW ON SATURDAY EVENING. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE STRONG
WITH NOSE OF 35 TO 45 KNOT 85H JET COUPLET WITH RRQ OF 25H JET
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...HELPING PRODUCE DEEP LAYER LIFT ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA. IN ADDITION...STRONG LLVL THETA E ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL JET...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW TO MID
LVL FGEN FORCING WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. ALL THIS
SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...WITH ANOTHER 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES
LIKELY THRU 12Z MONDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 2.0 INCHES.
GIVEN POSITION OF BOUNDARY AND PROGGED DEEPEST 850 TO 500 MB
MOISTURE PROFILES...THINKING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
VT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RATE OF RAINFALL AND LACK OF CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...THINKING OUR RIVER BASINS WILL HANDLE THIS PRECIP WITH
NO PROBLEMS...MAYBE AN ISOLATED POOR DRAINAGE/MINOR LOW LYING
FLOODING ISSUE OR TWO THROUGH TONIGHT. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW A SHARP
NORTH TO SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH MUCH LESS QPF ANTICIPATED
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THRU TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
NORTH WINDS/CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPS
TODAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE IN THE U40S MTNS TO L/M 50S
ELSEWHERE...SOME 20 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL S/W'S MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA.
TIMING THIS INDIVIDUAL PIECES OF ENERGY WL BE DIFFICULT IN THE
PROGRESSIVE SW FLOW ALOFT AND POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES
UPSTREAM. SFC BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE 925MB TO 850MB FRONT
WILL BE SLANTED BACK TOWARD OUR CWA. HELPING TO ENHANCE LIFT AND
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THINKING THE COMBINATION OF
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW PRES
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
ON MONDAY. NAM SHOWS BETTER LIFT/MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED QPF
ACROSS OUR REGION THRU 15Z MONDAY...WHILE GFS INDICATES AN ALL DAY
RAIN LIKELY...WITH PRECIP DISSIPATING BY TUESDAY. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT ON WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY TO CAT POPS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
ACROSS OUR CWA. ADDITIONAL QPF WILL RANGE FROM A 0.50 NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO LOCALIZED 2 INCHES IN SPOTS OVER THE DACKS
INTO CENTRAL VT. ONCE AGAIN THE RATE OF RAINFALL AND DURATION
SHOULD LIMIT ANY MAJOR HYDRO CONCERNS. SHARP RISES ON STREAMS AND
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME APPROACHING BANKFULL POSSIBLE BY
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT RIVERS...AND MAYBE THE
AUSABLE IN NEW YORK. AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAIN WILL
WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...AS MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT DEVELOPS FROM WEST
TO EAST. WILL MENTION HIGHEST POPS IN THE MORNING...THEN TAPER OFF
QUICKLY BY 18Z BASED ON PROGGED RH PROFILES. GIVEN EXPECTED
CLOUDS/PRECIP AND NORTH WINDS TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW
NORMAL ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S TO NEAR
70S ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE IN THE OVERCAST. VERY
LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPS...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 419 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER LOW MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
WEDNESDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS DECREASES WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST VERMONT. MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULTING
WEATHER WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-
LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD STARTING IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR WEDNESDAY...WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE COMFORTABLE AND RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE IN THE 
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. 
LATEST GUIDANCE WEAKER AND DRIER WITH REGARDS TO THIS FEATURE...BUT 
FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME...AND WILL BE SOUTH OF VERMONT BY AROUND 12Z. 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVING INTO STRATIFORM RAIN
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH GRADUAL DETERIORATION TO
MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN RAIN AND MIST...WITH SOME IFR
POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN SITES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL
RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE FOR REST OF TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT FOR MSS.

WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY 10 TO 20 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS DURING
SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHT EASTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH STALLED FRONT OVER AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.

00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...TRENDING TO VFR UNDER BUILDING 
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD (1 TO 3 INCHES
FORECAST) WITH MINOR POOR DRAINAGE TYPE FLOODING
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY HIGH PEAKS REGION OF THE NORTHERN DACKS INTO 
CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL VT. THIS REGION HAS ALREADY SEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN...FROM THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY EVENING...WITH INBANK
RIVER RISES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ON THE NEW HAVEN AND WINOOSKI AT MPV
OBSERVED. OTHERWISE...THINKING THE RATE OF RAINFALL WILL BE LESS
TODAY WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY WITH MOST PERSIST
SHOWERS/HEAVIEST QPF OVER THE DACKS INTO CENTRAL VT. ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RUNOFF WITH SIGNIFICANT INBANK RISES EXPECTED
ON MANY RIVERS. BUT WITH THE RECENT DRY SPELL NO LARGE STEM
RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SOME MINOR LOW LYING AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 400 AM EDT SUNDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE LAKE
EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND IT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH CHOPPY
CONDITIONS AND WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ON THE BROAD LAKE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WAVES SUBSIDING TO
1 TO 2 FEET.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...JMG/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS
HYDROLOGY...WFO BTV
MARINE...WFO BTV

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