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Expires:201506102000;;921617 FPUS51 KBTV 101032 ZFPBTV ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 629 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 VTZ006-102000- LAMOILLE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE 629 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 .TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .TONIGHT...SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT... THEN SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. .SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. .MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. $$ Expires:201506101100;;921695 ASUS41 KBTV 101030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-101100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON CLOUDY 60 56 86 S6 29.77R MONTPELIER CLOUDY 54 53 97 SE3 29.82R MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 59 56 89 CALM 29.78R ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 57 54 89 MISG 29.75R LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 56 53 89 CALM 29.79R MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 57 57 100 CALM 29.80R RUTLAND* PTSUNNY 57 52 82 E5 29.82R SPRINGFIELD PTSUNNY 57 55 93 W5 29.81R HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 58 57 97 CALM 29.76R NEWPORT* CLOUDY 57 55 95 CALM 29.77R BENNINGTON MOSUNNY 54 52 93 CALM 29.84R FOG SUTTON* N/A 55 N/A N/A MISG N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 48 N/A N/A NW25G38 N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 61 57 88 S8 N/A COLCHESTER RF* N/A 59 57 94 S10 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 57 57 100 SW2 N/A $$ Expires:No;;921647 FXUS61 KBTV 101033 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 633 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER WILL START THE DAY TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THEN ACROSS VERMONT TONIGHT. EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THIS LINE WILL WEAKEN A BIT AS IT MOVES ACROSS VERMONT TONIGHT WITH LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THURSDAY WITH MAYBE JUST A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 633 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS THIS MORNING TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF ONTARIO PROVINCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE OVER THE TOP OF THIS AREA AND THUS WE FEEL STORMS THAT FORM WILL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER LOW LEVELS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE A MORE FAVORABLE SITUATION FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH THE STORMS. FEEL THE STORMS WILL NOT GET GOING UNTIL AFTER 500 PM OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND NOT REACH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY UNTIL ABOUT 900 PM. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BECOME THAT UNSTABLE ACROSS VERMONT...SO EXPECT A WEAKENING OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO VERMONT WITH LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 425 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS VERMONT...BUT AGAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THIS SHOULD BRING DRIER AIR IN FOR THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS TO THE WEST AND ALLOWS ANOTHER TROUGH TO MOVE TODAY THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. THUS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MORE CONVECTION LATE IN THE DAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 425 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MORE PRONOUNCED RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR SUNDAY AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY AND ALLOW ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SHOWERS FINALLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA AND CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE. STILL THINK WE COULD SEE SOME BR DEVELOPMENT DO TO AMPLE MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL...BUT DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN PRETTY LOW. SOME IFR/MVFR FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS DIMINISH. LOW CLOUDS/FOG DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY. LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED TO 22-06Z. HAVE MENTIONED VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT UNTIL THE TIMING CAN BE BETTER ASSESSED. OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR. 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. POSSIBLE IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG EACH DAY AT MPV/SLK. 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 425 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL YESTERDAY...BUT NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED OTHER THAN WHAT IS STILL OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING. AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EVENSON NEAR TERM...EVENSON SHORT TERM...EVENSON LONG TERM...EVENSON AVIATION...RJS/NEILES HYDROLOGY...EVENSON - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html