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Expires:201506262000;;679583
FPUS51 KBTV 260744
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015


VTZ006-262000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
341 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN
20 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN
80 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S. 

$$


Expires:201506261100;;686701
ASUS41 KBTV 261030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-261100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    58  52  80 E3        30.02R                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    53  52  96 CALM      30.06R                  
MORRISVILLE    FOG       53  50  89 N3        30.05R VSB 3/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     55  50  83 MISG      30.02R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      52  49  88 CALM      30.05S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    56  56 100 CALM      30.02S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    55  52  88 SE6       30.03S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    57  55  93 CALM      30.04R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      53  52  95 CALM      30.02S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      50  49  97 SW3       30.04S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    59  57  93 CALM      30.01S                  
SUTTON*          N/A     50 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     46 N/A N/A E1G16       N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     61  55  82 E1          N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     61  57  88 SE3         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     59  57  94 SE5         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;682146
FXUS61 KBTV 260841
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
441 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION TODAY WITH ANY SHOWERS
COMING TO AN END FOLLOWED BY SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN
TO THE AREA LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE
WILL BE A FEW ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE PATTERN
REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT FRIDAY...LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
AREAS WILL BE COMING TO AN END THIS MORNING AS WEAK SHORTWAVE
EXITS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...AND THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST. WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND 925
MB TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH 15-16C THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT VALLEY
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S EXCEPT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ALONG
LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 432 AM EDT FRIDAY...WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT THE WEATHER WILL THEN 
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES 
AND UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OHIO BY DAYS END. 
SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD.
EXPECT SUN TO GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS WITH RAIN DEVELOPING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. THE MORNING SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S BEFORE ANY RAIN ARRIVES...WITH THE MILDEST
READINGS OVER NORTHERN AREAS DUE LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF CLOUDS.

GREATEST IMPACTS WITH THIS UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM ARE SLATED TO
OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE...WITH HINTS OF
SECONDARY SURFACE DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.

DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TAPS INTO GULF MOISTURE 
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN GREATEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
OCCURS WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ATTEMPTS TO WORK INTO THE AREA DURING
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION. SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED AS WELL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO
HAVE LEFT IN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER. MAX TEMPS SUNDAY
ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY TO 
STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS 
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO 
SHOW A STRONG JET IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS AT 850 MB...BUT LESS THAN 40 
KTS AT 925 MB. GIVEN THAT STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WHEN IT WILL BE 
PRECIPITATING...MIXING POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LIMITED.

THE STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO INFLUENCE WHERE HEAVIEST 
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH 
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.75 INCHES TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME HIGHER OUTLIERS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG SOUTHEAST FACING PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHILE SHADOWING WILL LIMIT TOTALS ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES AND IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. WITH THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL...THERE WILL LIKELY
BE SOME HYDRO CONCERNS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH RAISING SOME
RIVER LEVELS TO NEAR BANK FULL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT
WHERE WE'LL BE RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF A DECENT QPF EVENT WITH A
STRONG VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY 12Z
MONDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT AS
THE BEST FORCING LIFTS NORTH OF THE BORDER, AND EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL WHILE WE REMAIN UNDER
MOIST CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW. WEAK RIDGING EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD
MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS WITH THIS FEATURE WHERE AN EARLIER ARRIVAL TIME WOULD LIMIT
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, BUT THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
MEAGER CAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/SW
INDICES SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WHILE BUMPING POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AREA-WIDE. THIS
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED AS WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM THIS WEEKENDS RAIN WILL
PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

MOVING ON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS 
UNFORTUNATELY CONTINUE AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 
AFOREMENTIONED LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH CLOSED 500MB CIRCULATION PASSING 
JUST NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION  
WON'T BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THE PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT 
SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN AT OR 
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCALIZED IFR POSSIBLE AT KMSS/KSLK
OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BY 12Z WITH SOME
SCATTERED TERRAIN-DRIVEN CUMULUS DEVELOPING AFTER 14Z. LATEST
RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT KRUT/KMPV FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT NO REDUCTIONS
IN FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED. AT KMSS/KSLK CLEARING SKIES
WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
NIGHT OF VARIABLE CIGS/VSBY DUE TO FOG. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A FEW
UPSTREAM OBS NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO REPORTING FOG, SO HAVE TEMPO'D
IN SOME IFR TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE AT KRUT) TURN NORTHERLY AFTER 12Z FROM
5-10 KNOTS. ANY AFTERNOON CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER 00Z WITH WINDS
TURNING CALM AGAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z SAT - 18Z SAT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
18Z SAT - 18Z SUN: MVFR W/PERIODS OF IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND LLWS POSSIBLE.
18Z SUN - 12Z MON: MVFR IN RAIN LIKELY.
12Z MON - 12Z TUE: VFR W/LINGERING MVFR SHRA POSSIBLE.
12Z TUE - 00Z WED: VFR W/PERIODS MVFR/IFR LIKELY IN TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF

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