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Well, for the Rutland data the 6-year average is 11.7 with a standard deviation of 2.0.  So the lowest (2015) datum of 9 is slightly more than one standard deviation different from the average.  But the highest (2014) datum of 14 is also slightly more than one SD different from the  average.  So the two outliers were obtained in the two most recent, consecutive years!  Therefore for the Rutland data there is no trend. Unless harrier sightings continue to decrease in a statistically significant way for a few more years.

Scott

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> On Oct 4, 2015, at 11:17 AM, Ian A. Worley <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
> 
> Early this June Sue Wetmore wondered where all the summer Harriers had gone ... why were recent summer counts so much lower, it seemed, than in recent years?  So we set about to see what the eBird data have to say.
> 
> Check what we found out at the Vermont eBird website:
> 
> http://ebird.org/content/vt/news/perception-vs-reality-are-vermont-harriers-declining/
> 
> Ian