Expires:201511142100;;329306 FPUS51 KBTV 141105 ZFPBTV ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 601 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 VTZ006-142100- LAMOILLE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE 602 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 .TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .SUNDAY...CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. .SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. .TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. .THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. LOWS AROUND 40. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS AROUND 50. $$ Expires:201511141200;;330186 ASUS41 KBTV 141130 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-141200- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON CLOUDY 34 22 61 NW17G26 29.84R WCI 23 MONTPELIER LGT SNOW 28 25 88 NW15G30 29.81R FOG WCI 16 MORRISVILLE MIX PCPN 32 22 66 NW13G29 29.79R WCI 22 ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 32 24 72 MISG 29.74R LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 28 24 82 W15G23 29.75R WCI 17 MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 33 25 73 N12G17 29.84R WCI 24 RUTLAND* CLOUDY 36 21 55 NW12G23 29.80R WCI 27 SPRINGFIELD LGT RAIN 39 25 57 NW15G23 29.75R WCI 31 HIGHGATE* FAIR 31 23 70 W7G18 29.83R WCI 25 NEWPORT* CLOUDY 28 22 77 W12G20 29.77R WCI 18 BENNINGTON CLOUDY 38 31 76 W16G22 29.79R WCI 29 GALLUP MILLS* N/A 27 N/A N/A MISG N/A UNION VILLAGE* N/A 36 N/A N/A MISG N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 18 N/A N/A CALM N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS COLCHESTER RF* N/A 36 28 75 NW26 N/A WCI 23 DIAMOND ISL* N/A 34 27 75 NW14 N/A WCI 24 $$ Expires:No;;330649 FXUS61 KBTV 141141 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 641 AM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, MOUNTAIN DRIVEN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING, WITH CLOUDY BUT DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 641 AM EST SATURDAY...ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO THIS MORNINGS FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO SHIFT THROUGH THE BTV CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MID-MORNING. CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH SAID LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT THE DEEPEST 850-700MB MOISTURE QUICKLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGH PEAKS, POSSIBLY ENDING IN A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS ABUNDANT 925-850MB MOISTURE REMAINS BUT IS BELOW THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS, WHICH COMBINED WITH MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WE'LL SEE A CHILLY DAY TO START YOUR WEEKEND WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S, STRUGGLING TO HIT 40 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS. FOR TONIGHT, CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH WINDS WILL ABATE TO BELOW 10KTS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION. STILL THINK WE'LL SEE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING IN, AND THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 251 AM EST SATURDAY...PREVAILING DEEP-LAYER NWLY FLOW REGIME EXTENDING FROM NRN ONTARIO INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL BRING A RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN 00Z GFS AND NAM THAT A SHALLOW COLD FRONT MAY SLIDE SWD FROM SRN QUEBEC INTO N-CENTRAL/NERN VT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS PORTRAYED IN FALLING TEMPS/THICKNESS FIELDS. SHOULD SEE LIGHT SW-W WINDS ON SUNDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE UPR 40S TO LWR 50S...EXCEPT LOCALLY IN THE MID 40S ACROSS NERN VT. SHOULD SEE WINDS SHIFT NW AND N SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE SHALLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY (HIGHS 44-48F). A PERIOD OF FLURRIES/SPRINKLES IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...BUT DEEP-LAYER FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. POPS HIGHEST ACROSS NERN VT MONDAY MORNING (AROUND 20 PERCENT). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 251 AM EST SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST COAST NWD ACROSS OUR REGION NWD INTO QUEBEC. SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES WELL-ABOVE NORMAL OVERALL FOR MID-NOVEMBER. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S...AND THEN INTO THE LOW-MID 50S FOR WEDNESDAY...WARMEST ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY (MAY SEE LOCALIZED VALUES IN THE UPR 50S). WEDNESDAY/S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED 10-12DEG ABOVE NORMAL. MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW SHEARING NEWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN 700-500MB WAVE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE PREVAILING RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD. IT APPEARS A REMNANT OCCLUDED BNDRY IN SWLY FLOW WILL SHIFT INTO OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH BETTER CONSISTENCY SHOWN ON TIMING WITH THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. IT SHOULD REMAIN MILD WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S ON THURSDAY...BUT HAVE SHOWN POPS OF 40-60 PERCENT WITH FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST RAINFALL AMTS 0.25-0.50" AREAWIDE. A SLIGHT COOLDOWN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BUT PREVAILING SW FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS WE WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL. ABUNDANT CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT (UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S) WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 40S TO LOWER 50S ON FRIDAY. MAINTAINED CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH PREVAILING CYCLONIC FLOW WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ONTARIO/WRN QUEBEC. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-DAY BEFORE A SLOW TREND BACK TO VFR AT ALL SITES BY 00Z WITH SKIES REMAINING BKN. KSLK/KMPV STILL SEEING ON/OFF SNOW SHOWERS AS OF 11Z, BUT EXPECT WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS THAT ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY AT 8-12KTS, WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS,ABATING AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED AVIATION PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. && .MARINE... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATELY STRONG AND GUSTY NWLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH PASSED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOULD SEE NW WINDS 15-25 KNOTS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 10-20 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND 5-15 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT LEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS...WAVES AROUND 3 FEET WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS THAT MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON BOATING CONDITIONS. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF NEAR TERM...LAHIFF SHORT TERM...BANACOS LONG TERM...BANACOS AVIATION...LAHIFF MARINE...EVENSON - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html