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Expires:201511252100;;846851
FPUS51 KBTV 251120
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
616 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015


VTZ006-252100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
616 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. 
.THANKSGIVING DAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTH
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE
LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 20. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. 

$$


Expires:201511251200;;846946
ASUS41 KBTV 251130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-251200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    29  25  85 CALM      30.64R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      20  17  88 CALM      30.64R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    22  18  85 CALM      30.65R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     23  20  88 MISG      30.63R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR     N/A N/A N/A CALM      30.64R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY    26  26 100 CALM      30.64R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      25  21  86 CALM      30.64R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      19  16  88 CALM      30.66R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    24  22  94 E3        30.66R                  
NEWPORT*       MOCLDY    15  13  91 SW3       30.64R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    24  22  91 CALM      30.62R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     18 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     14 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     21 N/A N/A W22G38      N/A  WCI   5          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     32  30  93 SE7         N/A  WCI  26          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     32  30  93 E3          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;846920
FXUS61 KBTV 251128
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
628 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS AND EAST OF THE AREA. WITH A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BY LATER TODAY, AND ESPECIALLY ON
THANKSGIVING WHEN SEASONABLY MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BY LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. BEHIND THIS FRONT
A RETURN TO DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THIS
COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 628 AM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS OF
600 AM. DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT TRENDS THROUGH LATE MORNING, OTHERWISE LITTLE ADJUSTMENT
NEEDED AS WE PROGRESS TOWARD SUNRISE. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 325 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY AND
EAST INTO THE MARITIMES BY TONIGHT WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. PESKY MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE EXTANT
SYNOPTIC INVERSION AT MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW VARIABLE CLOUD COVER
AND PERHAPS A STRAY FLURRY HERE AND THERE TO LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, THOUGH A GENERAL TREND TOWARD PARTLY SUNNY SKIES IS
EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON AS PBL MIXING PROCESSES INCREASE WITH
ARRIVAL OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. LEANED ON THE COOL SIDE OF
GUIDANCE GIVEN CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSOLATIONAL HEATING THROUGH A
PORTION OF THE MORNING HOURS, THOUGH READINGS SHOULD BE MILDER
THAN YESTERDAY GENERALLY TOPPING OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.

BY TONIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING
1050 MB SFC HIGH AND A DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD TRICKY DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF
MIXING AND/OR DECOUPLING ACROSS THE AREA. AS IS TYPICAL DURING
NOCTURNAL RETURN FLOW EVENTS, MILDEST READINGS TO OCCUR IN THE
CHAMPLAIN/ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS (MID TO UPPER 30S) WHERE READINGS WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEREAS EASTERN
VT AND ADIRONDACK COMMUNITIES WILL SEE VALUES FALL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS (UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S) BEFORE TRENDING STEADY LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EST WEDNESDAY...AS THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER NOVA SCOTIA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT
AND THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO WILL BE NEARLY 30MB
AND WILL LEAD TO RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON
THANKSGIVING DAY. THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THUS WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAYTIME MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 FOR THANKSGIVING DAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO INCREASE
EXPECT TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT TO REMAIN HIGH AND THUS I'VE GOT MID
40S AS THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHUNTS NORTH OF THE REGION INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. AS THE PARENT
SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
SHOWERS LOOKING LIKELY TO ENTER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY SOME
TIME IN THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES IN
THE VERTICAL WILL STAY WARM ENOUGH TO MELT EVERYTHING AND THUS
RAIN WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THANKFULLY, THE GUIDANCE THIS
MORNING IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z DATA FROM YESTERDAY IN THAT
THERE IS INCREASING CONTINUITY OF TIMING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO DRAG THE FRONT THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS STILL REMAINING SLIGHTLY
MORE PROGRESSIVE. THERMAL PROFILES SHOW THE RAPIDLY COOLING AIR
UNDER COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK SHORTLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ON FRIDAY PRODUCING SOME WINTRY MIX OVER THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND UPSLOPE REGIONS ON THE ADIRONDACKS FOR ABOUT A
3-4 HOUR PERIOD THEN TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE REST OF
THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD BE LOOKING AT RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
AS WELL BUT WE WILL BE FIGHTING A LOSING BATTLE WITH AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE FAVOURABLE SOLUTION DUE TO HOW
PROGRESSIVE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE AND THUS IF WE USE THE
GFS AS THE BASIS FOR TIMING THE MOISTURE SOURCE WILL BE EXISTING
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. I DO ANTICIPATE AS WE GET
INTO THE NORTHWEST FLOW THERE WILL BE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POTENTIAL
BUT THAT WILL STAY HIGHLY LOCALIZED ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE NORTHERN GREENS.

BEHIND THAT FRONT, TEMPS WILL FALL RAPIDLY UNDER STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND THUS I ANTICIPATE TEMPS ON SATURDAY TO ONLY WARM
INTO THE MID 30S AND FALL TO THE MID 20S OVERNIGHT. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S. THE NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIP
WILL BE MID WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH A SURFACE CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. AS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT THIS FALL,
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC
PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...SCT/BKN MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH
18Z, TRENDING SCT/SKC THEREAFTER AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT NRN NY TERMINALS THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINDS
VARIABLE 5 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH 18Z, TRENDING SOUTH 5 TO 10 KNOTS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND LOCALLY HIGHER AT KRUT/KBTV.
INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LLWS CONCERNS AT
KPBG/KSLK AND POSSIBLY KMSS AFTER 00Z. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 
12Z THU - 18Z FRI...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 
18Z FRI - 12Z SAT...TRENDING TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. SOME MVFR/IFR -SHSN POSSIBLE 00-12Z
SAT AS PRECIPITATION ENDS. 
12Z SAT - 00Z MON...TRENDING VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...JMG

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