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Expires:201511232100;;755637
FPUS51 KBTV 231040
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
536 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015


VTZ006-232100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
536 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015

.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 18. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 19. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 60 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 20. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 

$$


Expires:201511231200;;757228
ASUS41 KBTV 231130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-231200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      28  19  69 NW12      30.04R WCI  18          
MONTPELIER     FAIR      24  17  74 NW6       29.98R WCI  17          
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      27  18  69 N8        30.01R WCI  19          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     29  18  63 MISG      29.94R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   MOCLDY    26  19  74 NW16G24   29.95R WCI  13          
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY    28  19  69 N14G22    30.00R WCI  17          
RUTLAND*       FAIR      27  18  69 NW7       29.97R WCI  19          
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      30  15  53 MISG      29.93R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      25  19  79 CALM      30.06R                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    24  19  80 NW7       29.99R WCI  16          
BENNINGTON     FAIR      29  19  66 N9G18     29.94R WCI  20          
SUTTON*          N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     14 N/A N/A NW38G59     N/A  WCI  -9          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     32  25  74 N22         N/A  WCI  19          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     32  23  69 NW17        N/A  WCI  21          

$$


Expires:No;;757057
FXUS61 KBTV 231124
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
624 AM EST MON NOV 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND BRISK CONDITIONS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY AS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 DEGREES FOR THANKSGIVING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM EST MONDAY...RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE
REGION. ALOFT...THE AREA STILL REMAINS IN LARGE SCALE
TROUGHING...SO EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WITH
SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE QUICKLY
DEPARTED THE REGION...HOWEVER SOME LINGERING STRATO-CU REMAIN OVER
THE TERRAIN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THESE SHOULD DECREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING ALTHOUGH A FEW SCATTERED TERRAIN CLOUDS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER AND ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE FIRST CALENDAR DAY OF THE SEASON AT BURLINGTON WHERE
THE TEMPERATURE DOES NOT BREAK 40 DEGREES.

FOR TONIGHT...WEAKENING AND MOISTURE STARVED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROPAGATES
TOWARDS THE REGION. THUS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
AFTER ABOUT 00Z OR SO. AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL SEE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF IT...AND THIS SHOULD ADVECT
SOME MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY FALL QUICKLY AT FIRST...BUT THEN STABILIZE AS CLOUD
COVER INCREASES. COLDEST AREAS WILL BE LOCATIONS IN EASTERN
VERMONT WHERE IT REMAINS CLEAR THE LONGEST. LOWS GENERALLY TEENS
TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 233 AM EST MONDAY...WEAKENING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN
PUSH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND PERHAPS
THE NORTHERN GREENS. THE TROUGH WILL BE RUNNING INTO A
STRENGTHENING 1035-1040 MB SURFACE RIDGE HOWEVER, SO AN OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MANY AREAS,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD REMAINING LARGELY
DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THAT SAID, ENOUGH SHSN COVERAGE TO WARRANT
HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SLV WHERE A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY DAYS END. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE COOL SIDE
AND GENERALLY IN THE 30S.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING CLOUDS AND FLURRY ACTIVITY TO TREND
TOWARD MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TIME AS STRONG SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
BRIDGES ATOP THE REGION. LEANED MORE CLOSELY TOWARD MOS-INFLUENCED
GUIDANCE ON MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WHICH OFFERS A MORE REALISTIC RANGE
OF VALUES FROM THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S GIVEN ANTICIPATED GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. READINGS COULD TREND A TAD COLDER IN THE
WESTERN DACKS/SLV IF A LIGHT SNOW COVER MATERIALIZES ON TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EAST AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
BEGINS IN EARNEST, HERALDING THE ARRIVAL OF AN UNSEASONABLY MILD
AIRMASS FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND IN KIND, CLIMBING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL
LATE NOVEMBER NORMS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR MOST UNDER
PARTIAL TO FULL SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 233 AM EST MONDAY..THE TREND INTO A CONSIDERABLY MILDER
WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG WITH
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS.

THEREAFTER, AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PRESS
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THIS MORNING'S GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT REMAINS
IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
FEATURE SO LITTLE NEED TO STRAY MUCH FROM CONTINUITY HERE. MILDEST
WEATHER TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE HIGHS SOLIDLY
INTO THE 50S BEFORE TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.
AS NORTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG COLD THERMAL ADVECTION INTERACT WITH
DEPARTING FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE RAIN SHOWERS MAY
SWITCH TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND/OR SHSN BY LATER SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATION APPEARS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. HIGHS BY NEXT WEEKEND TO GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 30S
TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LINGERING STRATO-CU OVER THE TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SOME LOWER MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT SLK/MSS AFTER 10Z TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST
WINDS FROM 5-15 KNOTS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SUBSIDING THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
12Z TUE - 12Z FRI...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 
12Z FRI - 00Z SAT...VFR TRENDING TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MUCCILLI
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...MUCCILLI

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