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Expires:201601112100;;109721
FPUS51 KBTV 111123
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
621 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016


VTZ006-112100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
621 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH FLURRIES THIS MORNING...THEN MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE
OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY. LIGHT SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION.
LOWS AROUND 17. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 19. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND
10 ABOVE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 15 TO 20. HIGHS AROUND 30. 

$$


Expires:201601111200;;109838
ASUS41 KBTV 111130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-111200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FLURRIES  29  16  58 W14G23    29.59R WCI  18          
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    27  11  51 W15G22    29.56R WCI  15          
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    30  13  49 W8G16     29.55R WCI  22          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     29  21  72 MISG      29.50R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FLURRIES  26  19  77 W13       29.51R WCI  15          
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY    28   9  43 SW8G17    29.63R WCI  20          
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    27   7  43 W13G29    29.64R WCI  16          
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      26   8  46 W17G29    29.62R WCI  13          
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    27  14  58 W10G24    29.59R WCI  17          
NEWPORT*       FLURRIES  26  14  60 W14G22    29.52R WCI  14          
BENNINGTON     FAIR      24   7  48 W10G17    29.70R WCI  14          
SUTTON*          N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     30 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     12 N/A N/A NW23        N/A  WCI  -7          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     32  18  55 W35G47      N/A  WCI  17          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     32  23  69 SW15        N/A  WCI  22          

$$


Expires:No;;106031
FXUS61 KBTV 110935
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
435 AM EST MON JAN 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLDER
AIR ON GUSTY WESTERLY TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TODAY AND SOME WILL REACH INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL VERMONT MOUNTAINS WITH FLURRIES ELSEWHERE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED
WE'VE SEEN GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NEAR 50 MPH ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL STILL GUST TO 30 TO 40 MPH AND
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY.

A 260 DEG 40 KT MEAN LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OF COLD AIR MOVING
ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS
MAINLY TO SOUTHERN ST. LAW/FRANKLIN/WESTERN ESSEX COUNTIES OF NY.
SOME OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL STREAK EAST ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL VERMONT. THE BAND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT A BIT SOUTH OF ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTING TO MORE LIKE 280 DEG AND DECREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT. THIS
WILL AFFECT MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 3 INCLUDING THE HIGH
PEAKS REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT. ELSEWHERE
AROUND THE REGION JUST A FEW FLURRIES OR WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE LAKE EFFECT BAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS THE FLOW
WEAKENS SHIFTS TO SW THEN S TOWARD MORNING AND IS SHEARED OUT SO
NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED BAND TO SHIFT BACK INTO ST. LAWRENCE
COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WILL BE STEADY IN THE 20S TODAY OR SLIGHTLY FALL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED THIS EVENING EXCEPT IN
THE LAKE EFFECT REGION BEFORE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS INCREASE TOWARD
TUE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS,

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE TUE/WED TIME
FRAME, THIS MORNING'S MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS (SREF/GEFS/EPS)
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A RATHER ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM
CLIPPER LOW PROGRESSING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS, ROBUST MILLER TYPE-B SECONDARY
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AND INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. INDEED, SOME OF THE THIS MORNING'S
DETERMINISTIC DATA SUGGEST RAPID DEEPENING OF THIS SECOND LOW TO
NEAR THE 970 MB VICINITY ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA/NEW BRUNSWICK BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICAL WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT AT
THIS LATITUDE THE HIGHER IMPACTS FROM THIS SECOND SYSTEM SHOULD
LARGELY OCCUR OFF TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, A COMPLEX
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL LOW AND LINGERING LAKE EFFECT
MOISTURE ON TUE/TUE NIGHT, AND LIGHT TO MODEST NORTHWESTERLY
OROGRAPHIC FORCING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MARITIME LOW TAKES OVER
MAKE FOR A RATHER CHALLENGING 36-HOUR PERIOD. WITH CLIPPER-TYPE
LOWS PASSING TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST, GENERAL CLIMATOLOGY AND
SYNOPTIC PATTERN RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST A DEEPENING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOWS/SNOW SHOWERS, MOST PREVALENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VERMONT. HOWEVER ONGOING LAKE SNOWS WILL
CREATE AN ADDITIONAL LAYER OF COMPLEXITY. AT THIS POINT I USED A
MULTI-MODEL QPF/SNOW- RATIO SOLN TO DERIVE THE TWO DAY TOTALS,
WHICH SUGGEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 3-6 INCHES ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS, ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND GREEN MTNS OF VERMONT ABOVE
1000 FEET. IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT TOTALS SHOULD BE LIGHTER (1- 3 INCHES) MAINLY DUE
TO SHADOWING AND/OR BLOCKING EFFECTS. TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF MOS
AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DATA SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 20S UNDER
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY AND 15 TO 25 ON WEDNESDAY AS
NORTHWESTERLY COLD THERMAL ADVECTION DEVELOPS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY FROM 10 TO 20.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 420 AM EST MONDAY...THE DISTANT MARITIME BOMB THEN PULLS
FURTHER AWAY LOSING ANY LINGERING INFLUENCE ON SENSIBLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, FAIRLY ROBUST WESTERLY
FLOW AND A DEEPLY MIXED PBL SHOULD ENSURE RATHER IMPRESSIVE LAKE
SNOWS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE TUG HILL SNOW BELTS IN THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. MEAN DIRECTIONAL
FLOW SHOULD WAFFLE BETWEEN 260- 280 DEGREES AND WITH 850 MB FLOW
AVERAGING AROUND 25 KTS, THIS WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
DOWNSTREAM TRANSPORT OF LIGHTER LAKE SNOWS INTO THE ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GREENS WHERE LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES EXPECTED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY/SOUTHERN VT.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE
20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WED NT/THU NT IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MID TEENS.

BY NEXT WEEKEND YET ANOTHER AND POTENTIALLY SIMILAR TYPE OF
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT OUR REGION WITH A PRIMARY GREAT
LAKES/SLV STORM TRACK GIVING WAY TO SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND OR THE GULF OF MAINE. A TREND IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS TOWARD THE IDEA THAT WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY MAKE
INROADS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH POSSIBLE P-TYPE
ISSUES HAS OCCURRED, BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS TO KEEP
PREDOMINANT P-TYPE AS SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR LIGHT SNOW IN ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE CHAMPLAIN/LOWER ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS AT THIS TIME. DID
LEAN TOWARD MILDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE 25 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE
HOWEVER PER LATEST ECWMF MOS/GFS MOS OUTPUT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CEILINGS FOR THE REGION EXCEPT
BRIEFLY MVFR AT KSLK. WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 KNOTS EXCEPT FOR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH GUSTS IN THE
30-40 KNOT RANGE FOR MSS/SLK. FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED AT SLK WITH
SOME CHANCE THE VIS MAY DROP BRIEFLY TO 2-4SM BUT UNCERTAIN AS THE
MAIN LAKE EFFECT BAND STAYS SOUTH. THERE IS CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES ELSEWHERE AT BTV/PBG/MPV/RUT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME SO CARRYING VCSH. TREND TO VFR AT MOST LOCATIONS DURING
THE DAY INTO THE EVENING WHEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR/IFR SNOW
SHOWERS AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SOME AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...SISSON
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...SISSON

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