Expires:201601102100;;062443
FPUS51 KBTV 101121
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
619 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
VTZ006-102100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
619 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
.TODAY...RAIN. VERY WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...INCREASING TO 25 TO
35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR
100 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. WEST WINDS
15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
.TUESDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW
60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS 15 TO 20. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 20.
.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 5 TO
10 ABOVE. HIGHS AROUND 20.
$$
Expires:201601101200;;062799
ASUS41 KBTV 101130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-101200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON FAIR 41 33 73 E8 29.90F
MONTPELIER CLOUDY 37 33 85 SE13 30.00F WCI 29
MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 39 33 79 S7 29.99F
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 34 31 88 MISG 30.01F
LYNDONVILLE* MOCLDY 35 32 90 E3 29.99F
MIDDLEBURY* MOCLDY 41 34 75 S8G26 29.89S
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 37 34 87 SE12G22 29.92F WCI 30
SPRINGFIELD FOG 32 32 100 CALM 30.01F VSB 1
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 39 33 78 CALM 29.91F
NEWPORT* FAIR 36 32 86 S8 29.98F WCI 29
BENNINGTON FAIR 43 36 76 E13G25 29.85F
SUTTON* N/A 34 N/A N/A MISG N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 30 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 34 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 27 N/A N/A SW31 N/A WCI 10
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 41 36 81 S16 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 41 36 81 S12 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;063260
FXUS61 KBTV 101146
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
646 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO WESTERN QUEBEC INTO TONIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A
RETURN TO COLDER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED SNOW
SHOWERS AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST SUNDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD DATA AND TO
POPS TO BLEND CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN WITH EXISTENT DATA
DURING MID TO LATE MORNING. DID LOWER POPS ACROSS THE NORTH FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH LATEST WRF 4KM/HRRR
OUTPUT, OTHERWISE T/TD CHANGES WERE IN GENERAL QUITE MINOR. REST
OF FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE A GREAT DAY.
PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 355 AM EST SUNDAY...
A VERY COMPLEX AND CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS
RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THIS TRACK AND ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY UNDER
INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THUS OUR CURRENT
IDEA OF SOLID 80-100 PCT POPS REMAIN ON TRACK THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHARACTER TRENDS MORE INTERMITTENT
AND SHOWERY BY THIS EVENING AS PARENT SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT SWEEPS
INTO THE REGION WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STEADIER SHOWERS/ISOLD
THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD FOR TODAY AND MAY EVEN
THREATEN A FEW RECORDS AS THESE VALUES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE (40S)
EVEN FOR JANUARY. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
AND LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AS IMPRESSIVE 50-80 KT 925-850 MB FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TRAVERSES THE BARRIER. MODEL CROSS-SECTION ANALYSIS
SHOWS THIS POTENTIAL QUITE WELL WITH CLEAR AGEOSTROPHIC SIGNATURES
TO THE LEE (IN THIS CASE TO THE WEST) OF THE MOUNTAINS WHICH LIFT
NORTHWARD OVER TIME TODAY AS BEST FORCING PIVOTS NORTH AND EAST.
ADDITIONALLY, FROUDE NUMBERS ARE AT OR JUST BELOW 1 SUGGESTING
NEAR-NEUTRAL BLOCKING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL
LAYER/BREAKING WAVE DEVELOPMENT. SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS, THOUGH TO A
SOMEWHAT LESSER EXTENT.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT POST-FRONTAL COLD THERMAL ADVECTION
WILL FOSTER A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND CHANNELED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE LOCALLY STRONG
GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WIND
ADVISORY/HIGH WIND WARNING MESSAGES FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION
FOR YOUR AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20S ACROSS VERMONT, AND
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 ACROSS OUR NORTHERN NY COUNTIES AS PCPN
TRANSITIONS TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM EST SUNDAY...COLD ADVECTION ALONG WITH A DEEPLY
MIXED PBL THEN ESSENTIALLY DOMINATES THE LOCAL WEATHER INTO
TUESDAY AS DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THE LAKE ONTARIO SNOW BELTS WILL
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE, THOUGH IN GENERAL MEAN WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF HEAVIER ACTIVITY TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE GOING IDEA OF AT
LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIKELY. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS WHERE LOCAL
ENHANCEMENT OF UPSTREAM LAKE SNOW BAND MAY OCCUR AS SUGGESTED BY
THIS MORNING'S HI-RES OUTPUT. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL, KEEPING
DAILY DEPARTURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE
IN THE 20S TO LOCALLY AROUND 30 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS 5 TO 15
ABOVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 411 AM EST SUNDAY...THE HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD IS THE SNOW
SHOWERS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA (CLIPPER
SYSTEM) WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND WEAKEN AS A
SECONDARY LOW FORMS IN THE GULF OF ME. THE LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN
AS IT HEADS NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. EXPECTING
STRONG QG FORCING FROM VIGOROUS TROF WITH DIFF VORT ADVECTION AND
WARM ADVECTION TO BE EXITING THE AREA EARLY. WITH THE UPPER
LOW/TROF RIGHT OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EXPECT ANY LIGHT SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO MAINLY OROGRAPHIC ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WED
UNDER NW FLOW. ANY LINGERING FLURRIES SHOULD BE ENDING WED NIGHT.
COULD BE A FEW INCHES OF FLUFF IN IN THE MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT. IT
WILL TURN COLDER WITH LOWS 10 TO 20 BY WED MORNING AND HIGHS NOT
GOING UP MUCH ON WED. EXPECTING ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO STAY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY RISING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED WITH FAST
BROADLY CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SEASONABLY
COLD TEMPERATURES. COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AROUND
WITH ANY WEAK IMPULSE, BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING DRY WEATHER WITH
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...LLWS AND AREAS OF IFR LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION ESPECIALLY 14Z-21Z TODAY.
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TO START THE MORNING WITH SOME VFR CIGS WEST
OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS (BTV/PBG) AND ADIRONDACKS (SLK/MSS) WITH
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. VISIBILITIES DECREASING TO MVFR AREAS OF IFR AS
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN MOVE INTO THE REGION 13-15Z AS A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES THROUGH OH THEN WEST OF KBUF BY 18Z AND CYOW
BY 00Z. DOWNSLOPE AREAS MAY HAVE A BIT LIGHTER PRECIPITATION.
LLWS DEVELOPS AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN 1000-3000FT WITH
2000FT WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 35-50KTS. COULD BE SEVERE TURBULENCE
WITHIN 5-10NM ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
ADIRONDACKS IN DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THE MAIN TAF SITE TO BE CAUTIOUS
WITH SURFACE GUSTS WILL BE RUT WHERE SURFACE DOWNSLOPING WIND
GUSTS COULD BE 35-45 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CAN'T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF GUSTS AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH.
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH HE REGION FROM THE WEST AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWING
AROUND TO S THEN SW AND WEST 00Z-06Z. KMSS MAY SEE POST COLD
FRONTAL WIND GUSTS TO 35-45 KTS DURING THIS TIME, PERHAPS REACHING
AS FAR EAST AT KSLK WHERE ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY MAY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS BY 06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z BUT TENDENCY WILL TO BECOME VFR AT MOST OTHER TAF SITES AS
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AT KSLK TERMINAL.
12Z TUESDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH OCNL MVFR/IFR SNOW SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SELECTED HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TODAY, JANUARY 10...
SITE VALUE DATE
BURLINGTON 49 1939
MONTPELIER 44 1956
ST JOHNSBURY 48 1956
MASSENA 46 1950
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ003-006-011-
016.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VTZ017>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NYZ029>031.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ026-027-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
CLIMATE...JMG
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