Print

Print


Expires:201601122100;;156612
FPUS51 KBTV 121136
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
634 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016


VTZ006-122100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
634 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING...THEN
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...SNOW LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO
3 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 16. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGHS
AROUND 19. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE
OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 4 ABOVE. WEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 20. WEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. 
.SATURDAY...SNOW LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW
60 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS
15 TO 20. 
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...CLOUDY WITH A
40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 20S. 

$$


Expires:201601121200;;156278
ASUS41 KBTV 121130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-121200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      18   7  62 S6        29.97F WCI  10          
MONTPELIER     FAIR       8   4  83 CALM      29.96F                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR       9   4  80 CALM      29.96F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A      6   1  80 MISG      29.98S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR       4   1  87 CALM      29.95F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      18   8  65 S5        29.98R WCI  11          
RUTLAND*       FAIR      16   7  67 SE10      29.98R WCI   3          
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      14  10  84 CALM      30.02S                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    15   9  76 SE5       29.97S WCI   7          
NEWPORT*       FAIR       7   2  83 SW5       29.94F WCI  -2          
BENNINGTON     FAIR      14   8  77 CALM      29.97F                  
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A      1 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     14 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      3 N/A N/A W8          N/A  WCI -10          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     23  19  86 S18         N/A  WCI   9          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     21  16  79 S14         N/A  WCI   8          

$$


Expires:No;;156673
FXUS61 KBTV 121140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
640 AM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ARRIVES BY THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL MID-WINTER NORMS THROUGH THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM EST TUESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER,
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PER LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AS OF 600 AM. HAVE A GREAT DAY.

PRIOR DISCUSSION FROM 426 AM EST TUESDAY...
FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK FOR A NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER
LOW TO PROGRESS INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOWS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA. AS THE SYSTEM NEARS, IT WILL WEAKEN AND TRANSFER ENERGY
TO SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE MARITIMES. PROBLEMATIC
TO THE SNOWFALL FORECAST WILL BE A GENERAL WEAKENING IN DYNAMICAL
FORCING FROM THE PARENT SYSTEM BY TONIGHT AS MODELS SHOW WARM
THERMAL ADVECTION, PVA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ALL WANING AS COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES OVER TO OUR EAST. THIS IS SHOWN QUITE
CONSISTENTLY IN CONSENSUS FIELDS FROM THE 00Z MODEL SUITE, THOUGH
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO CONTINUE ALL WINTER HEADLINES AS IS
WITH THIS PACKAGE FOR A GENERAL 2-5 INCH SNOWFALL WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS TO NEAR 6 INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OUTSIDE THE ADVISORY TOTALS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS AND
GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE. EXPECT THE STEADIEST SNOWS TO
ARRIVE BY AFTERNOON COMMUTE TIME INTO EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL
LIKELY IMPACT TRAVEL TO SOME DEGREE SO PLAN ACCORDINGLY. SNOWS
SHOULD TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TONIGHT AS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FORCING TRANSLATE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD RANGE THROUGH THE 20S UNDER LIGHT TO MODEST
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH LOWS TONIGHT HOLDING FROM 10 TO 20
AS CLOUDS PERSIST AND FLOW TRANSITIONS TO WEST/NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EST TUESDAY...NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM ASSOCIATED CLOSED SURFACE
LOW WHICH WILL BE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM NOVA SCOTIA FURTHER
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW, UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
FROUDE NUMBERS GREATER THAN 1 INDICATE THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT RIDGELINE AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
GREEN MOUNTAINS. AS THE DAY WEARS ON, SLIGHT RIDGING WILL BRING A
BRIEF DRYING TREND LATE WEDNESDAY.

CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE LEE OF LAKE ONTARIO THAT WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE RIDGING AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL EXPERIENCE A WARMING
TREND BUT MAX TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS. MIN
TEMPERATURES ALSO SEE A WARMING TREND WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGING
FROM NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES...WARMING 5 TO 10
DEGREES THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EST TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING 500MB TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW AT THE SURFACE APPROACHING FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS DIFFER ON TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT DEVELOPS A COASTAL LOW...POSSIBLY A DOUBLE BARREL LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT BULK OF ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
TO REACH THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF BRING STRONGER LOW NEAR THE 70W 40N BENCHMARK ON SATURDAY
BEFORE STRENGTHENING EAST TO SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FORECASTS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STORM.

COME SUNDAY, TROUGHING CONTINUES BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM
AND CONTINUES CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH CLOSED 500MB LOW
DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THEN ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY SOMETIMES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

MAX TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOW 20S TO LOW 30S.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A LITTLE MORE VARIATION AS COOLER AIR
FILTERS IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. FRIDAY NIGHT MINS WILL
BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S...COOLING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID
TEENS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR THROUGH 15Z UNDER THICKENING/LOWERING
MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS THEN MOVE WEST TO
EAST INTO THE AREA FROM 15-20Z WITH CONDITIONS LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR AT ALL TERMINALS. A GRADUAL WANING OF ACTIVITY AND
IMPROVEMENT IN FLYING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY TRENDING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FROM 5
TO 12 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY TO 20 KTS THROUGH 00Z EXCEPT AT
KMSS TERMINAL WHERE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE MORE PREVALENT. AFTER
00Z FLOW TRENDS WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT 6-12 KTS AND BECOMES
GUSTY LATE.

OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR IN MOUNTAIN/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
OF LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT KSLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ003-
     004-006>008-016>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ026-
     029-030-034-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html