Print

Print


Expires:201602132100;;662859
FPUS51 KBTV 131122
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
619 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016


VTZ006-132100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
619 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY...

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY THIS
MORNING. HIGHS 3 TO 9 ABOVE. TEMPERATURE FALLING TO AROUND 9 BELOW
THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW
40 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 38 BELOW. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 20 BELOW. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.
WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 45 BELOW. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. COLD WITH HIGHS AROUND 2 BELOW. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 45 BELOW. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 12 BELOW. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. 
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS
AROUND 20. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW OR RAIN. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. LOWS 12 TO 26. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS AROUND 20. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND ZERO. HIGHS
IN THE MID 20S. 

$$


Expires:201602131200;;663147
ASUS41 KBTV 131130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-131200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FLURRIES  10   1  67 N14       29.87R WCI  -6          
MONTPELIER     LGT SNOW  10   5  80 N8        29.79R WCI  -2          
MORRISVILLE    FAIR       9  -1  64 NW9G20    29.82R WCI  -4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     14   4  64 MISG      29.76R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FLURRIES  10   4  75 W7        29.75R WCI  -1          
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    16   7  67 NW5       29.78R WCI   9          
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR       0  -4  83 CALM      29.80R                  
HIGHGATE*      MOCLDY     1  -6  71 W7        29.92R WCI -12          
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY     8   2  77 NW7       29.79R WCI  -4          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    14   7  73 W9        29.80R WCI   2          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A      9 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A      5 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     -6 N/A N/A NW35        N/A  WCI -35          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     12   5  73 NW26        N/A  WCI  -8          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     16   5  62 NW14        N/A  WCI   1          

$$


Expires:No;;663462
FXUS61 KBTV 131138
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
638 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA...BRINGING
WITH IT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. MODERATE
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON...WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
MONDAY...WITH A STRONG AND MOISTURE LADEN STORM SYSTEM BRINGING
POTENTIAL MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 620 AM EST SATURDAY...ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE SEEN SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AS
THE FRONT PASSES. ALSO SEEING WINDS TURN TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA
THE REST OF TODAY...AND SHOW WILL BE ENDING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY...THEREFORE DAYTIME MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ACHIEVED...WILL SEE DROPPING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW ZERO IN SOME PLACES. SAME SCENARIO FOR
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE OVER THE
AREA...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. WIDESPREAD BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...NEGATIVE TEENS AND TWENTIES. WE CONTINUE
WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FOR BOTH OF THESE PERIODS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST SATURDAY...WIND CHILL WARNING CONTINUES ON SUNDAY
AS COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE WINTER SEASON REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND MODIFYING A BIT AS IT DOES SO. BUT AFTER A FRIGID
START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO. WINDS
WILL STILL BE BRISK ENOUGH AT 10-15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO
PRODUCE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OF 30 TO 35 BELOW DURING THE
MORNING. WINDS WILL SLACKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT
IN THE WIND CHILLS. WHILE IT WILL BE A BITTER COLD DAY...WE SHOULD
SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. COLD AIR TEMPERATURES AND WARM WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN MAY RESULT IN STEAM CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OFF THE LAKE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY OF VERMONT. ELSEWHERE...DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SUBZERO READINGS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE OFF THE
EAST COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER IN
THE DAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA DUE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 449 AM EST SATURDAY...CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT
OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND RACES NORTHEAST WITH
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. MODELS STILL DIFFER ON TRACK OF ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND THE RESULTING PTYPE AND AMOUNTS OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY. GFS TRACKS SURFACE LOW JUST TO OUR EAST...CROSSING
NEW HAMPSHIRE ON TUESDAY...WHILE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE
WESTERN TRACK UP THROUGH NEW YORK STATE. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO GFS
SOLUTION...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WPC THINKING AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND PERIOD OF
GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...PTYPE MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY SNOW. DURING TUESDAY HOWEVER...ENOUGH WARMING
EXPECTED FOR A CHANGE TO MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN RAIN...DEPENDING ON
EVENTUAL LOW TRACK. QPF MAY REACH 1 TO PERHAPS EVEN 2 INCHES...SO
POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...RAIN OR
MIXED PCPN. 

SYSTEM EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PCPN TAPERING
TO SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH
UPPER TROUGH OVER REGION AND DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVING
THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER
FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND
20S. NEXT SHORTWAVE IN FAST FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES FRIDAY
HOWEVER...BRINGING CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...EXPECT A SHORT-DURATION (AN HOUR OR LESS)
VISIBILITY DROP TO LIFR/VLIFR IN SNOW SQUALLS WITH A GUSTY WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST AT MPV AND RUT. RAPID CLEARING
TOWARD VFR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY, THOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. SOME
BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. 

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED
WINTRY PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
AVIATION WX CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY MAY BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. 

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 13TH FOR OUR CLIMATE
SITES...
BTV -25 1967 
MPV -29 1967 
MSS -33 1967 
SJBV1 -30 1967
MMNV1 -32 1967

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)... 
BTV -2 1979 
MPV -4 1979 
MSS -3 1987 
SJBV1 +2 1987 
MMNV1 -19 1979

COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -19 1987 
MPV -19 2003 
MSS -29 2003 
SJBV1 -28 2003 
MMNV1 -30 1979

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-
     035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...LOCONTO

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont.

To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html