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Expires:201602142100;;709164
FPUS51 KBTV 141123
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
621 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016


VTZ006-142100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
621 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. COLD WITH HIGHS AROUND 3 BELOW. NORTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 38 BELOW. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN CLEARING. COLD WITH
LOWS AROUND 15 BELOW. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 22 BELOW. 
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE
OF SNOW 30 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 25 BELOW IN THE
MORNING. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS AROUND 18. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...RAIN OR SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SLEET
ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW OR RAIN LIKELY. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
60 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 15. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF
SNOW 60 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. 

$$


Expires:201602141200;;709419
ASUS41 KBTV 141130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-141200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     NOT AVBL                                               

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A    -11 -17  77 NW15        N/A  WCI -34          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A    -11 -18  70 W13         N/A  WCI -32          

$$


Expires:No;;709819
FXUS61 KBTV 141140
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
640 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON REMAINS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS
ARE EXPECTED. COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST TONIGHT...BUT WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHTER. A WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING A
MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 628 AM EST SUNDAY...HAVE INCREASED POPS A LITTLE BIT IN THE
IMMEDIATE VICINITY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE WHERE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. DO NOT THINK WE WILL
HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS, BUT IT IS IMPACTING VISIBILITY
LOCALLY. EXPECT AS THE WINDS WEAKEN THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE.

SURFACE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND BE LIGHTER OVERNIGHT. WIND CHILL
WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH 7PM. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BACK INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. WITH
WEAKER WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL NOT HAVE WIND CHILL HEADLINES ANY
LONGER. HAVE SEEN SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AT BTV
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE. THESE VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
BECOMING CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EST SUNDAY...A CLEAR AND COLD START TO THE DAY ON
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WELL BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS TO BEGIN THE DAY. BUT AS THE HIGH
SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...A RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
REBOUND INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALSO RESULT IN AN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW LATER IN THE DAY
DUE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEEING THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT AND RACES NORTHEAST WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THERE IS STILL SOME INCONSISTENCY
BETWEEN MODELS ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE LOW...BUT
THEY ARE ALL INDICATING THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST
THROUGH SOME PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
THE RESULT WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER...WITH AN ASSORTMENT OF PRECIPITATION TYPES
EXPECTED. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION...PTYPE MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE MAINLY SNOW. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHERLY MID
LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH WARMING FOR A CHANGE TO MOSTLY
RAIN...WITH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS THE SNOW
CHANGES TO MOSTLY RAIN. QPF MAY REACH 1 TO PERHAPS EVEN 2
INCHES...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW...RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP. THE MORE QPF THAT FALLS HOWEVER...THE
MORE LIKELY IT FALLS AS RAIN. PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES SUGGEST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES BEFORE CHANGEOVER...WITH SOME
LIGHT ICING AS WELL. ICING PROBLEMS MAY CONTINUE EVEN AFTER
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING...DUE THE PRESENT ARCTIC AIRMASS
IN PLACE AND COLD GROUND TEMPS. MAX TEMPS BY LATER TUESDAY
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 423 AM EST SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN OR MIXED PCPN TAPERING OFF...THEN TRENDING
TOWARDS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THERE IS THE
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER
REGION AND DISTURBANCE IN FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 30S...SO THERE MAY BE A LITTLE SNOW/RAIN MIX IN THE
VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO DRIER AND COLDER WEATHER
FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND
20S. THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY...WHILE A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES IN FAST FLOW ALOFT APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SNOW
OR RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY AS TEMPS REBOUND TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON
FRIDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH CLEARING SKIES TODAY. SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THIS MORNING AT BTV AND MPV DOWNWIND OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. AS
THE WINDS WEAKEN THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST
AROUND 8-11 KTS AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS
MORNING...WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COASTAL STORM WILL SPREAD HEAVY MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION NWD INTO THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR AVIATION WX
CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY BRING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR FEBRUARY 13TH FOR OUR CLIMATE
SITES...
BTV -25 1967 
MPV -29 1967 
MSS -33 1967 
SJBV1 -30 1967
MMNV1 -32 1967

COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)... 
BTV -2 1979 
MPV -4 1979 
MSS -3 1987 
SJBV1 +2 1987 
MMNV1 -19 1979

COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR VALENTINES DAY (FEBRUARY
14TH)...
BTV -19 1987 
MPV -19 2003 
MSS -29 2003 
SJBV1 -28 2003 
MMNV1 -30 1979

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-
     016>019.
NY...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ026>031-
     034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...LOCONTO

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