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Expires:201602252100;;231283
FPUS51 KBTV 251129
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
627 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016


VTZ006-252100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
627 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

.TODAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THEN RAIN
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH...BECOMING WEST THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...RAIN OR SNOW LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN SNOW LIKELY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS
AROUND 13. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 17.
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW
40 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 2 ABOVE. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE MID 20S. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 10 TO 15. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 10 TO 15. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. 

$$


Expires:201602251200;;231304
ASUS41 KBTV 251130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-251200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  45  42  89 SW8       29.13R                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    38  37  97 VRB6      29.20F FOG              
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    40  39  97 SW8       29.17S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     36  35  96 MISG      29.19F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    42  42  99 S5        29.20F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    50  49  97 CALM      29.14R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    52  46  82 SE13      29.15F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    34  34 100 NW3       29.23F FOG              
HIGHGATE*      LGT SNOW  38  38  99 SE8       29.13R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      41  40  99 SW9       29.14F                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      58  49  72 S13G29    29.16F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     41 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     43 N/A N/A W31G49      N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     39  39 100 SW13        N/A  WCI  32          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     41  41 100 S3          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;231693
FXUS61 KBTV 251142
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
642 AM EST THU FEB 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY, AND EVENTUALLY OFF
INTO THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING, THOUGH LIGHTER THAN THE
PAST 12 HOURS, THEN PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX THIS EVENING, AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING
EARLY FRIDAY. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES IS
EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY FLOOR, WITH UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER PEAKS OF NORTHERN VERMONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 642 AM EST THURSDAY...LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
HAS SHIFTED THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND WE'RE
STARTING NOW TO SEE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX THIS EVENING AND THEN SNOW OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE
WARM BL TEMPS INITIALLY, SNOW WON'T ACCUMULATE MUCH AT THE VALLEY
FLOOR WITH PERHAPS A DUSTING TO 2" POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT,
BUT ATOP THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WE SHOULD SEE A SOLID 2-4",
POSSIBLY A COUPLE MORE BY FRIDAY MORNING.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS CURRENT OBS WIDELY RANGE FROM THE 30S
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND EAST OF THE GREENS, TO AS WARM
AS 50S ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES ON DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
EXPECT THERE TO BE A BRIEF BUMP UP AREA-WIDE THIS MORNING BEFORE
PRECIPITATION FILLS BACK IN, THEN PLUMMET OVERNIGHT INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK TO MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 402 AM EST THURSDAY...COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN VERMONT, BUT THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS PARTIAL
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE A PARTIALLY CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. COLD SNAP WILL BE BRIEF THOUGH AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY AND WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONT. HIGHS WILL PUSH BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 319 AM EST THURSDAY...THE VERY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM
DRIVING TWO ADDITIONAL THREATS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION
AND POSSIBLE SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM BY
LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY PRESENT A CHALLENGING PERIOD
OF TEMPERATURE FORECASTING AS THE POLAR FRONT WILL LIKELY BE
WAFFLING NORTH/SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA MUCH OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
TYPICAL NON-DIURNAL TRENDS ETC. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF MODEST CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
POLAR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO DROP BACK SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH BY
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS CLIPPER ENERGY
TRACKS ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES EAST INTO THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO OUR IMMEDIATE NORTH. THUS THE IDEA OF A
SOMEWHAT BETTER THREAT OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOOKS ON TRACK AT THIS POINT. AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES, THE POLAR FRONT WILL SWING BACK THROUGH THE REGION YET
AGAIN WITH SOME BACKSIDE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. OUTSIDE SOME
SCT FLURRY/LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
TIME FRAME SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AND SEASONABLY COOL.
THEREAFTER, INCREASING SIGNS THAT YET ANOTHER INLAND RUNNER TYPE
OF SYSTEM OF SOUTHERN STREAM ORIGIN WILL PHASE WITH ITS NORTHERN
COUNTERPART AND TRACK FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS OR NEARBY
ENVIRONS BY THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. THIS WOULD BRING A HIGHER
THREAT OF MIXED PCPN AND POSSIBLE RAIN TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN.
HOWEVER, GIVEN AT LEAST SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND TRACK AMONG
THIS MORNING'S DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE OUTPUT WILL LEAN ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE OFFERING DECENT CHANCES OF FRONT END LIGHT SNOWS
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS LINGERS
INITIALLY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MIXED BAG OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING WITH A GENERAL TREND TOWARDS ALL SITES MVFR AS
PRECIPITATION FILLS BACK IN THROUGH THE DAY EXCEPT KMSS WHERE IFR
WILL PREVAIL. AFTER 00Z RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD REDUCING VSBY TO IFR BEFORE ENDING TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10KTS SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON,
AND NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KMSS.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... 
12Z FRI - 18Z FRI...IMPROVEMENT FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR. SLOWEST TO OCCUR
AT MPV AND SLK.

18Z FRI - 00Z SUN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z SUN - 00Z MON...VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

00Z MON - 00Z TUE...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS AS CLIPPER MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE AT BTV
AND MSS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1201 AM EST THURSDAY...AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VT THROUGH 545 AM DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL,
SNOWMELT AND POSSIBLE ICE JAMS. LATEST RADAR AND GAGE INFORMATION
SHOW THAT BETWEEN ONE HALF AND AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS EAST INTO MUCH
OF VERMONT OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. WITH THE GROUND BEING RATHER
DEEPLY FROZEN DUE TO LACK OF SNOW COVER, MOST OF THIS RAINFALL IS
NOT BEING ABSORBED AND IS RUNNING DIRECTLY OFF INTO AREA STREAMS
AND RIVERS.

SHARP RISES ARE BEING NOTED ON MANY SMALLER STREAMS AND SOME
MAINSTEM RIVERS. WITH ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
MANY WATERSHEDS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR BANKFULL OVERNIGHT WITH
SCATTERED AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF
HYDROLOGY...JMG

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