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Expires:201602282100;;363731
FPUS51 KBTV 281109
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
606 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016


VTZ006-282100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
606 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.TODAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW...MAINLY THIS MORNING.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH THIS MORNING...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY
CLOUDY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MONDAY...CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS AROUND 40. WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 15. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...SNOW. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND ZERO. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS ZERO TO 5 ABOVE
ZERO. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. 

$$


Expires:201602281200;;364608
ASUS41 KBTV 281130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-281200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    37  24  59 S8        29.77R WCI  31          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    37  25  61 VRB5      29.77R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    37  29  72 S8        29.74  WCI  31          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     37  27  67 MISG      29.72R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   LGT RAIN  31  29  96 CALM      29.73R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      34  23  62 S3        29.79R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      37  21  52 SW9       29.80R WCI  31          
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      38  24  57 S6        29.78S                  
HIGHGATE*      MIX PCPN  35  34  96 W5        29.77R WCI  31          
NEWPORT*       LGT SNOW  32  31  98 S6        29.72R WCI  26          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    33  22  63 CALM      29.84R                  
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     23 N/A N/A NW39        N/A  WCI   3          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     37  32  81 S10         N/A  WCI  30          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     36  28  75 S7          N/A  WCI  30          

$$


Expires:No;;364828
FXUS61 KBTV 281135
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
635 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BEFORE THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID-DAY. AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THE
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WHILE RAIN SHOULD PREDOMINATE, FREEZING RAIN IS MORE
LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY CAUSING POTENTIAL
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 626 AM EST SUNDAY...MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN
AND SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHERN
ONTARIO/QUEBEC. OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WANES
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER
SUPPORT SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BUT THE SHALLOW FRONTAL ZONE WILL
MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE AND PTYPE FORECAST AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCALLY DEVELOPED 4KM
AND 6KM WRF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY SHALLOW POOL OF BELOW
FREEZING AIR DRAINING SOUTH DOWN THE NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE AND
NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MAINTAINS CONSIDERABLY MILDER TEMPERATURES ATOP THE HIGH
PEAKS AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. AS SUCH, WE'LL SEE A WIDE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY, WHERE IN THE NORTHERN
ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO 20S, WHILE ELSEWHERE
TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE 40S TO LOCALLY NEAR 50 ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT.

AS WE HEAD INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THE FORECAST
BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE COMPLEX AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT UP THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY SUBSEQUENTLY LIFTING THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED
FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. WITH WARM AIR OVERRUNNING
THE SHALLOW SUB- FREEZING TEMPS, DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND POSSIBLY CHAMPLAIN VALLEY POSING POTENTIAL
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT THOUGH, A STRONG 45-60KT 925-850MB SOUTHWEST JET WILL
EVENTUALLY WIN OUT, WITH SURFACE WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-30KTS
WARMING SURFACE TEMPS AREA- WIDE ABOVE FREEZING, ENDING THE
FREEZING RAIN THREAT AND TRANSITIONING PTYPE TO PLAIN RAIN. ALL-
IN-ALL, WHILE THE THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT FZRA WE'RE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF, MAINLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH, BUT EVEN THIS LIGHT AMOUNT WILL CREATE A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE
ON AREA ROADWAYS SO WE CONTINUE THE FZRA ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EST SUNDAY...CLIPPER LOW WILL BE EXITING RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO THE MARITIMES DURING
MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WEAK NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TAILING IN
TANDEM BY MONDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS PROCESS TWO COLD FRONTS WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA, THE SECOND BEING DRIER WITH LESS PCPN, BUT
SOMEWHAT STRONGER IN TERMS OF COLD THERMAL ADVECTION. THE HIGHEST
PCPN THREAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS DEEPER
SYSTEM'S FRONT AND MOISTURE PULL EAST. GENERALLY A MIX OF
RAIN/NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, TRENDING TO ALL
FLURRIES AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY THOUGH WITH LESS
COVERAGE AS SECOND FRONT SWINGS THROUGH. HOWEVER, WITH THIS SECOND
FRONT THERE ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME
EVIDENCE OF PBL INSTABILITY TO 150 J/KG RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
SO WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH WHETHER A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF SNOW
SHOWERS/BRIEF SQUALLS CAN DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS
MENTIONED OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE TRICKY, AT LEAST ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD READINGS FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EAST (UPPER 30S TO MID 40S) AND COOLER VALUES
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK (30S) AS FIRST FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS
DURING THE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY OR SO. THEN PREDICTABILITY
FACTOR INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH SEASONABLY COLD LOWS
(10 TO 20 NORTH, 20 TO 25 SOUTH) FOLLOWED BY 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR
HIGHS BEHIND THE SECOND BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 424 AM EST SUNDAY...WELL, IN TERMS OF OUR MORE ROBUST MID-
WEEK SYSTEM UNFORTUNATELY THE JURY REMAINS OUT ON IT'S EVOLUTION
AND EVENTUAL TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD OUR REGION. THE GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT FROM THIS
MORNING'S GEFS/EPS DATA REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF GUIDANCE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHILE THE
EURO/UKMET/NAM/GEM AND ENSEMBLE GEPS SHOW A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
ACROSS WESTERN/NRN NY INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND. NOW THAT'S ABOUT AS
CLOSE TO A 50/50 BLEND YOU CAN CREATE IN THIS FIELD. AS A SIDE
NOTE WPC PREFERS THE FORMER, RATHER THAN THE LATTER SCENARIO AT
THIS POINT. REGARDLESS ON THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME, PRIMARY PCPN SLUG
SHOULD OCCUR IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME AFTER WHICH CONDITIONS TREND SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY WITH
MEAN HIGH PRESSURE BY LATE WEEK. USING A GENERAL BLEND OF GFS/EURO
REGARDING PBL THERMAL STRUCTURE, I'LL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
CONSISTENCY WITH OUR PRIOR FORECAST AND WPC. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A
MAINLY SNOW EVENT FOR OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A SNOW TO
MIX SOUTH. GIVEN THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE, I'M NOT
EXPECTING REALLY HEFTY SNOW TOTALS. HOWEVER, EARLY INDICATIONS
WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL ON
THE ORDER OF 4-6 INCHES CENTRAL/NORTH, SOMEWHAT LESS SOUTH DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WHICH COULD BE ONE OF OUR LARGER SNOWFALLS OF THE
SEASON IF THE CURRENT FORECAST STAYS TRUE TO COURSE. OF COURSE THE
FINER-SCALE DETAILS WILL BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS AND
THINGS CAN CERTAINLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...GENERAL TREND THROUGH THE MORNING WILL BE
TOWARDS LOWERING CIGS AT KMSS/KPBG/KBTV TO MVFR/IFR AND WINDS
TURNING NORTH/NORTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION, WHILE
AT KSLK/KMPV/KRUT MVFR WILL ACTUALLY TREND TOWARDS VFR AFTER 18Z
AS THE SURFACE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY. AFTER 00Z FLOW BEGINS TO
GO SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KMSS WHERE NORTHEAST
WILL PREVAIL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO
MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
THE FRONT MOVES OVER KMSS, A PERIOD OF LIGHT FZRA IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH AREAS OF LLWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... 
12Z MON - 18Z MON...VFR/MVFR TRENDING TO MVFR WITH PERIODS IFR IN
RAIN OR MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND LLWS LIKELY AT KBTV/KMSS.

00Z TUE - 18Z TUE...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHSN POSSIBLE.

18Z TUE - 00Z THU...VFR TO MVFR/IFR IN MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

00Z THU - 00Z FRI...IMPROVING TO VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST 
     MONDAY FOR NYZ026-027.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...LAHIFF

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