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Expires:201603312000;;845284
FPUS51 KBTV 310743
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
341 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016


VTZ006-312000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
341 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.TODAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WARMER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 10 TO 15. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 10 TO 15. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 30S. 

$$


Expires:201603311100;;852190
ASUS41 KBTV 311030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-311100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    50  28  42 S24G36    29.80F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    45  25  45 S13       29.88S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    51  27  39 S13       29.82R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     46  25  43 MISG      29.84F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    42  26  53 SE5       29.87R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    50  29  44 S12       29.86F                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    48  28  46 SE8       29.88S                  
SPRINGFIELD    MOCLDY    35  29  78 CALM      29.94S                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    50  30  46 S14G21    29.76S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    42  27  54 S12       29.81F                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    49  31  49 SE6       29.91F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     39 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     36 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     39 N/A N/A NW39        N/A  WCI  26          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     45  34  65 S28         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     48  32  53 S21         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;848124
FXUS61 KBTV 310837
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
437 AM EDT THU MAR 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PRETTY LARGE WEATHER CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. WINDY
AND WARM WEATHER ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS. A MUCH STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...RESULTING
IN MUCH COLDER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE
ALSO EXPECTED WITH THAT FRONT. VERY GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE MID-WINTER
THAN EARLY SPRING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE NEAR THE
REGION LATE MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 417 AM EDT THURSDAY...A RATHER WINDY AND VERY MILD DAY ON TAP
FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SOME SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS SHOULD LEAVE
MOST OF FORECAST AREA WITH DRY WEATHER TO START THE DAY...WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THEN INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHEST POPS TODAY RESERVED FOR ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SUNNY
INTERVALS. WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO 11 TO 13C...WE CAN
EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES WELL IN THE 60S...WITH SOME LOWER 70S IN
THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS REST
OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 50S...TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.

BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
WINDS. STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JET WILL BE PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW 925MB TO 850MB WINDS RANGING
BETWEEN 50 AND 70 KNOTS WITH CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED OVER
OUR NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH MIXING WILL OCCUR AND TO WHAT DEPTH
FOR MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING
POTENTIAL UP TO 2500 FEET...SUPPORTING GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
MPH...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WHERE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALIGNS WITH TERRAIN ORIENTATION. SOME
GUSTS OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE ALSO POSSIBLE IN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THROUGH
THE PERIOD DUE CHANNELING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WELL WEST
OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY... ESSENTIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...
KEEPING OUR AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD
BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR A THUNDERSTORM. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND DYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD
EXIST FOR SHOWERS TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS ALONG WITH THAT LOW POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT UPPER TROUGH AXIS ONLY MAKES IT TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY MORNING KEEPING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND WITH
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING...STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOP FOR MORE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT THURSDAY...PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS SATURDAY NIGHT 
INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. THIS WILL BRING COLD AIR INTO
THE REGION AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD...TRENDING
VFR/MVFR AFTER 21Z. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WITH POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CEILINGS GENERALLY BKN-OVC060-100 PRESENTLY...WITH A SLOW LOWERING
OF CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS RANGING FROM
8-13 KTS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE GUSTS
IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...EVEN A BIT
STRONGER AT BTV GIVEN CHANNELING EFFECTS. SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE UP TO 45-60 KTS OVERNIGHT...AND WHILE THESE
STRONGER WINDS WILL STAY ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION IT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF LLWS. CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR VFR/MVFR SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM WEST. CEILINGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR AT MSS.

OUTLOOK 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
06Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SATURDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS. GUSTY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ABOVE 30KT ARE POSSIBLE.

00Z SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY...VFR WITH MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS

00Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY...PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED WITH SNOW
SHOWERS. POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WINDS TO GUST OVER 40KT.

00Z MONDAY ONWARD...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS LATER MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 350 PM WEDNESDAY...THE KTYX (FT DRUM) RADAR IS OFFLINE TO
DUE EQUIPMENT PROBLEMS. PARTS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE
THURSDAY, AND IT IS HOPED THAT THE RADAR WILL RETURN TO SERVICE ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS/NASH
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...RJS
EQUIPMENT...NASH

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