Expires:201606062000;;040519 FPUS51 KBTV 060750 ZFPBTV ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 348 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 VTZ006-062000- LAMOILLE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE 348 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. .TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. .FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. .SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. $$ Expires:201606061100;;047296 ASUS41 KBTV 061030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT MON JUN 06 2016 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-061100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON MOCLDY 65 60 84 S12G21 29.49R MONTPELIER FAIR 59 57 93 S6 29.56S MORRISVILLE MOCLDY 58 56 93 CALM 29.52R ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 61 57 87 MISG 29.52S LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 58 57 97 SE3 29.55S RUTLAND* CLOUDY 64 59 83 S6 29.58R SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 59 59 100 CALM 29.58S HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 63 61 93 S10 29.48R NEWPORT* RAIN 59 57 94 S5 29.52R SUTTON* N/A 57 N/A N/A MISG N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 54 N/A N/A NW31G43 N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS COLCHESTER RF* N/A 63 63 100 S17 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 64 63 94 S12 N/A $$ Expires:No;;042506 FXUS61 KBTV 060826 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 426 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Today will see warm temperatures accompanied by dry and mostly sunny conditions with gusty southwesterly winds. Conditions will become much more unsettled as a large upper low shifts from Ontario southeastward to over the North Country for the mid-week period. Occasional showers and temperatures below early June normals are anticipated Tuesday through Thursday with the coolest temperatures expected Wednesday and Thursday to only reach the upper 50s to lower 60s for maxes. High pressure builds in from the west for Friday with partly to mostly sunny conditions and temperatures moderating back into the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 426 AM EDT Monday...Drier air filters into the region as occluded front exits east of Vermont this morning. Deck of stratus clouds expected to diminish this morning, but be replaced with diurnal cumulus. Even in the drying conditions, cannot rule out a slight chance of a rain shower as an area of PVA brushes the northern perimeter of the forecast area. Low pressure will center just south of James Bay, keeping the North Country in southwesterly flow. Surface winds will be gusty at times through the early evening. With 850mb temperatures warming to around 9.5C-11.5C, expect maxes in the mid 70s to low 80s. Overnight, winds will decrease and any diurnally driven clouds will diminish. 500mb long wave trough will approach from the Great Lake region, increasing clouds and chance for rain showers late tonight into early Tuesday. Min temperatures will be generally be in the 50s in persistent southwest flow. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 331 AM EDT Monday...an active period of weather is expected associated with 3 to 4 std below normal trough across the great lakes into the ne conus. timing of individual short waves in flow aloft and associated impacts will be forecast focus. first piece of energy along with some enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture is located across our region on tuesday morning...with additional energy and greater instability arriving on tuesday afternoon. nam soundings show surface based capes between 1000 and 1500 j/kg...while gfs is much less around 400 to 800 j/kg...with main instability axis across our eastern cwa. based on developing cool pool aloft with 500mb temps around -18c and modest surface heating with temps in the 70s...will create enough instability to support mention of thunder...associated with scattered to widespread showers. both gfs/nam and local wrf's show the best instability/shear interaction across our central/eastern cwa around 18z tuesday with 0 to 6 km shear between 40 and 50 knots. i have mention small hail/gusty winds most of the region...with the best chance for localized severe being across central/eastern vt. progged 850mb temps around 9c with good mixing supports highs mainly in the 70s. expect areal coverage and intensity of convection to decrease after sunset on tuesday night...with mainly slight chance to chance wording. some areas of patchy fog are possible. on weds another interesting day as core of closed 5h circulation and associated potent 5h vort move directly overhead. have noted very cold 5h temps of -26c across our region...which combined with some surface heating will produce additional showers. in addition...given the very cold sounding profiles and less moisture will be limited...but with very low wet bulb zero values...thinking some small hail is possible. have mention likely pops during the afternoon hours with slight chance of thunder. progged 850mb temps between 1-3c support highs only in the 50s to lower 60s most locations...about 10 degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 331 AM EDT Monday...deep mid/upper level trof continues to impact our region on weds night through friday...before slowly lifting by the weekend. the combination of northwest upslope flow and associated cold air advection will result in additional showers and brisk conditions on weds night. have noted progged 850mb temps drop between -1c and +1c by 12z thurs...supporting some mixed wet snow above 4000 feet on weds night. a light coating is possible on the summits. otherwise...another vort on thursday crosses our region...but available moisture in dry nw flow aloft is limited with pws <0.50". will mention chance pops on Thursday mainly in the mountains associated with upslope flow and lingering moisture in trof axis. given thermal profiles and development of strato cumulus clouds...expect highs mainly in the upper 40s to upper 50s depending upon elevation. a progressive northwest flow aloft continues into the weekend...which will keep warmest temps and greatest instability to our south. difficult to time short wave energy in flow aloft...along with amount of available moisture...so have keep forecast mainly dry attm...except mention chance pops on saturday. temps will slowly rebound to near normal values over the weekend...with highs mainly in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /08Z Monday THROUGH Friday/... Through 06z Tuesday...Mix of flight conditions over the North Country. Isolated spots of fog, but increased pressure gradient keeps southerly winds at 5-12kts with gusts of 18-22kts from time to time early this morning. Therefore, cigs will be the main concern with IFR to MVFR through sunrise. Conditions improve to vfr with gusty winds Monday into early Monday evening. Outlook 06z Tuesday through Friday... 12Z Tuesday through Thursday...Broad scale upper trough will be associated with scattered -SHRA mainly daytime hrs Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday, with intervals of MVFR cigs/VSBY possible, especially at SLK/MPV. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos/KGM NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...KGM - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html