Expires:201606022000;;849206 FPUS51 KBTV 020810 ZFPBTV ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 409 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 VTZ006-022000- LAMOILLE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE 409 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 .TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. .FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. .SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .SUNDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT. .MONDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. $$ Expires:201606021100;;854579 ASUS41 KBTV 021030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2016 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-021100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON MOCLDY 67 53 61 S10 30.09S MONTPELIER FAIR 56 49 77 S5 30.21S MORRISVILLE FAIR 60 49 66 S6 30.16S ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 58 48 69 MISG 30.17S LYNDONVILLE* MOCLDY 56 48 74 SE6 30.20F RUTLAND* FAIR 61 51 70 SE10 30.16S SPRINGFIELD MOCLDY 53 51 93 CALM 30.21R HIGHGATE* FAIR 66 54 65 S14G23 30.05F NEWPORT* FAIR 58 49 70 S9 30.16S BENNINGTON FAIR 61 51 70 CALM 30.16R SUTTON* N/A 54 N/A N/A MISG N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 50 N/A N/A MISG N/A UNION VILLAGE* N/A 55 N/A N/A MISG N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 50 N/A N/A W16 N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 66 57 72 SE23 N/A COLCHESTER RF* N/A 64 57 77 S24 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 64 55 72 S20 N/A $$ Expires:No;;850583 FXUS61 KBTV 020838 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 438 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Ridge of high pressure slides east of the North Country this morning followed by a weak cold front that will cross the area this evening into the first half of Friday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. High pressure and mainly dry weather then return Friday night before a trend toward cooler, more unsettled weather arrives from Sunday onward into the early portions of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 438 AM EDT Thursday...Scattered rain showers will move into the St Lawrence valley this morning, ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Pressure gradient increasing as front closes in, resulting in increasing southerly winds and a low level jet that will help produce gusty winds at the surface. Increasing clouds, southerly flow with influx of warming air ahead of the front and 925mb temperatures around 20C will see surface max temperatures reach the 70s to around 80. Warm temperatures, increasing moisture with PWATS greater than 1.5 inches possible will help showers produce brief period of moderate rainfall. NAM and GFS indicating a touch of instability, mainly in the St Lawrence valley today. Therefore expect any thunderstorms to be isolated. Heading into tonight, mostly cloudy conditions and the aforementioned cold front will pick up eastward momentum. Expect the front to be weakening as it traverse across the North Country tonight, exiting Northern NY Friday morning. Winds will shift southwest to west in the wake of the front. Overnight lows will generally range from 50F to the low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 406 AM EDT Thursday...A weakening frontal system will be over Vermont on Friday, so will go with low chance pops for showers and thunderstorms from central and eastern Vermont southward on Friday. A weak ridge of high pressure will build into the region Friday night and Saturday, and will linger over the region Saturday night. ECMWF and GFS models showing some timing differences late Saturday night, with the GFS bringing in showers to the region by daybreak on Sunday. The ECMWF model keeps a dry forecast Saturday night. Have opted to go with the slower ECMWF model solution and keep Saturday night dry. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 406 AM EDT Thursday...ECMWF and GFS models in good agreement through the period, as models showing a closed upper low and upper trough over the Great Lakes and southern Canada through the period. This will give a chance of showers to the region from Sunday through Wednesday. Superblend pops have a good handle on this, so have stuck with them. Temperatures look to be near or slightly below normal through the period. && .AVIATION /08Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Through 06z Friday...VFR conditions continue through most of Thursday with MVFR conditions possible in showers developing ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. This front will bring a threat of showers for all sites with thunderstorms possible for the western New York TAF sites. Expect showers to affect KMSS/KSLK mid to late morning and be slow to progress eastward, with chance of showers/VCSH reaching the Champlain Valley after 18Z, then KMPV/KRUT after 00Z/Fri. Front looks to weaken as it moves across the North Country tonight decreasing potential for showers. This morning a low level jet will funnel up the Saint Lawrence with winds 30-40kts between 1500-2000ft resulting in low level wind shear at KMSS. Southerly winds increase after sunrise, becoming gusty in the afternoon. Gusts as high as 20-25kts will develop across most TAF sites during through the evening hours. Gusts subside after sunset. Outlook 06z Friday through Monday... 06Z Friday through 00Z Saturday...VFR/MVFR with showers/isolated T-storms possible for the eastern TAF locations. VFR expected for northern New York. 00Z Saturday through 12z Sunday...VFR/high pressure. Potential LIFR mist/fog each evening. Sunday onward...MVFR to perhaps local IFR with rain and stratus. && .MARINE... As of 438 AM EDT Thursday... A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY MORNING... Winds and waves will continue to increase this morning, posing a potential hazard to small craft. Tightening pressure gradient is developing ahead of approaching weak cold front. This will result in wind speeds of 15 to 25 knots out of the south this morning, with gusts around 30 knots developing midday, outside of any rain shower or possible thunderstorm activity. Choppy to occasionally rough lake conditions are expected after sunrise, especially on the broad lake and in bays/inlets with open southerly exposures. Wave heights around 1 to 3 feet with locally values to 4 feet in the broad lake north of Willsboro and Shelburne Points are expected today. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM/Loconto NEAR TERM...KGM SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...KGM MARINE...KGM - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html