Expires:201609072000;;061909 FPUS51 KBTV 070805 ZFPBTV ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 403 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 VTZ006-072000- LAMOILLE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE 403 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2016 .TODAY...PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HUMID WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. .FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. .SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. .SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. .SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. .MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. .MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. $$ Expires:201609071100;;067730 ASUS41 KBTV 071030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2016 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-071100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON CLEAR 65 60 84 SE3 30.08R MONTPELIER CLOUDY 62 61 96 SE3 30.16S MORRISVILLE CLEAR 61 59 93 CALM 30.12R ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 61 59 93 MISG 30.11R LYNDONVILLE* FOG 60 60 97 CALM 30.15R VSB 3/4 MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 66 66 100 SE5 30.09S RUTLAND* CLEAR 65 62 90 CALM 30.11R SPRINGFIELD FOG 59 58 96 CALM 30.11R VSB 1/4 HIGHGATE* FAIR 62 61 97 SE3 30.06S NEWPORT* FAIR 60 59 96 CALM 30.13R ISLAND POND* N/A 61 N/A N/A E3 N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 54 N/A N/A MISG N/A UNION VILLAGE* N/A 61 N/A N/A MISG N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 57 N/A N/A W15 N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 70 64 83 SE12 N/A COLCHESTER RF* N/A 70 66 88 S18 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 68 64 88 S5 N/A $$ Expires:No;;063983 FXUS61 KBTV 070845 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 445 AM EDT Wed Sep 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will be over the north country through tonight. A weak cold front will approach fro the Great lakes late Thursday and Thursday night. This frontal system will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. A weak ridge of high pressure will be over the north country on Friday. The next chance for showers will be late Saturday afternoon into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 435 AM EDT Wednesday...A ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will remain over the north country through tonight. Expecting mostly sunny skies today, with some partly sunny skies over eastern Vermont, as satellite loop showing some low clouds approaching southeast Vermont at this time. Some patchy fog around early this morning, but not as much as yesterday morning. Any fog will burn off by mid morning. expecting highs to be mainly in the 80s today. Tonight, expecting increasing high clouds from frontal system over the Great Lakes tonight. A rather humid night for early September, with lows mainly in the 60s tonight. Given increasing clouds tonight have held off on any mention of fog at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 445 AM EDT Wednesday... It looks very warm (85-90) and humid (dewpoints mid 60s to lower 70s) on Thursday with a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms between 20Z-04Z with a pre-frontal trof and a cold front. Thunderstorms could be locally strong producing gusty winds and heavy downpours. Also southwest winds could gust over 30 mph in the St. Lawrence Valley. On Thu GFS/NAM still differ greatly on moisture and instability with 500-1000 J/kg CAPE on the GFS and an axis of up to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE on the NAM. The highest CAPE looks like it will be during max heating and located from BTV westward with a maximum in the St. Lawrence valley where dew points will make it into the lower 70s. CAPE profiles are of the tall narrow character with weak lapse rates mainly less than 5 C/km leading to weak but tall updrafts. 0-6km shear increases to 25 to 35 knots perhaps as high as 40 kts in the far north suggesting a chance of severe with a pre-frontal trough especially nrn NY. Also of note is plume of precipitable water of 2+" (NAM shows upwards of 2.5" in showers and storms) and warm cloud depths up to 4.5+ km which suggest any storms could produce locally downpours. 850 temps continue warm around 17C so highs again well into the 80s on Thu and near 90 still possible but will depend on cloud cover. A cold front will follow late Thu night with continued chance of showers and storms diminishing to perhaps some lingering mountain showers by midnight. Lows mild and mainly in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 445 AM EDT Wednesday... Models continue in good agreement and run to run consistency leading to decent confidence in the long term forecast. Main weather features are a warm front on Saturday followed by a cold front Sat night/early Sunday with more showers and storms. After the frontal passage cooler and less humid air will arrive Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds into the region. Looks like clearing and drier Friday with some high clouds around as surface high and upper level ridging. Highs Friday somewhere in the 70s to lower 80s with 850 temps near 13-14C. A strong upper level trough and frontal system approach with showers and slight chance of thunder with a warm front on Sat. Then a cold front early Sunday morning. Some clearing is possible by later on Sunday with cooler temperatures. High generally in the 70s to near 80 with clouds and chance of showers. Temps could be tricky however with the warm front passing through on Sat and cold advection on Sunday. By Monday a northwest flow of cooler and much less humid Canadian air will bring temps in the 70s with 850 temps around 10C. A bit milder by Tue as flow begins to back around to southwest and 850 temps recover back to 11-13C with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. && .AVIATION /09Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period, as a ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft remains over the region. Some areas of fog and mist possible in the valleys with local pockets of MVFR/IFR possible until 12Z Wednesday. Outlook 06Z Thursday through Sunday... Surface trough approaching from the west will bring a chance for showers Thursday afternoon, including a slight chance for a thunderstorm. Gradient flow is briefly strong from the SW ahead of the trough. SW gusts to 25-30kts are possible at MSS/SLK with the stronger gradient flow, and also potentially with any shower activity. A Stronger frontal system Saturday night into Sunday will bring more widespread shower activity with MVFR conditions and intervals of IFR possible. Wind gusts in excess of 25KT again possible BTV-MSS- SLK Saturday night into Sunday, mainly in strong southerly flow in advance of the frontal boundary. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WGH NEAR TERM...WGH SHORT TERM...Sisson LONG TERM...Sisson AVIATION...Banacos/WGH - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html