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Expires:201610192000;;096661
FPUS51 KBTV 191030
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
627 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2016


VTZ006-192000-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
627 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 
.THURSDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS AROUND 60. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN
90 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF
RAIN 70 PERCENT. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS
AROUND 30. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. 

$$


Expires:201610191100;;096685
ASUS41 KBTV 191030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-191100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    60  50  69 N8        29.87R                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY    61  57  87 NW9       29.87R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     57  56  96 MISG      29.80R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    59  56  89 SW9       29.85R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY   N/A N/A N/A N7        29.85R                  
RUTLAND*       MOCLDY    66  62  87 SW7       29.84R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       55  54  96 CALM      29.83R VSB 1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      52  49  90 CALM      29.87R                  
NEWPORT*       MOCLDY    54  49  82 W6        29.87R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    66  62  87 W10       29.87R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     57 N/A N/A W10         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     57 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     55 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     45 N/A N/A W36         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     59  52  77 NW1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     61  54  77 N18         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     61  54  77 N15         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;097042
FXUS61 KBTV 191048
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
648 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will bridge across the area today into tonight
with variable clouds and continued mild temperatures. A sharp
frontal boundary will develop across the region on Thursday into
Saturday with widespread, occasionally heavy rainfall expected. As
the front pushes east of the area by early next week a return to
seasonably cooler weather is expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 648 AM EDT Wednesday...Minor adjustments to sky cover as we
progress toward sunrise per latest satellite/observational trends.
Also added at least some potential for some patchy mist/fog across
the area later tonight, though confidence remains only modest for
occurrence as mid to high clouds will be streaming northeast into
the area over time. Highest probs for fog most likely across
eastern VT where clearing will persist longer. Rest of forecast
remains on track. Have a great day.

Prior discussion... Generally quiet weather expected over the
next 24 hours as the cold front which brought scattered showers to
the region last night settles south into the Mid- Atlantic region.
Variable clouds this morning should generally trend partly sunny
in many areas today as high temperatures range through the 60s to
around 70. This is still some 10-12 degrees above normal values
for the date. Clouds may linger longest across the Adirondacks and
portions of the southern SLV where residual moisture of Great
Lakes origin is advected atop terrain on light west/northwesterly
flow.

Clear to partly skies this evening will then trend mostly cloudy
later tonight in response to weak low pressure lifting northeast
from the Ohio Valley ahead of evolving, seasonably deep upper
troughing across the upper Midwest/northern Great Lakes. There may
even be a few light showers advecting into the far southwestern
Adirondacks and southern SLV toward morning, but by and large
precipitation will hold off until after sunrise Thursday. During
this time the large-scale background flow will begin to back to
south/southeasterly, heralding a return of deeper moisture and
strong warm thermal advection progged to arrive by later Thursday
into Friday with potential heavier rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 442 AM EDT Wednesday...500mb trough continues to dig south
while progressing eastward late in the week. Strong area of
vorticity at the base of this trough will be associated with
strengthening surface low pressure system tracking up the Ohio
River Valley across PA and into the NE Thursday into Friday. Warm
front ahead of this low will bring rain into the North Country.
PWATs ranging from 1-1.25 inches, expect periods of moderate to
heavy rainfall possible, especially across St Lawrence Valley to
the Adirondacks as strongest deformation will focus around those
areas.

Trough becomes more neutral to negatively tilted late Friday,
slowing the progression eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 442 AM EDT Wednesday...Rain continues with longwave trough
extended down from Quebec through the Carolinas. Added element of
complexity to the forecast will be tropical/coastal system far
offshore ESE of OBX. GFS keeps the progression of this trough
faster than rest of observed model guidance. 00Z ECMWF shows
moisture and energy from this tropical system feeding into the
500mb trough. This results in a closed low with strengthening
surface low Friday night into Saturday. Storm total QPF continues
to have heaviest amounts over the St Lawrence Valley...nearing 3
inches...tapering off eastward to about 1 inch in the CT valley.
GFS outlier with heaviest amounts oriented slightly west across
Adirondacks into Nrn Champlain Valley.

As the trough swings through Saturday night into Sunday, W-NW
flow filters into the North Country with cooler temperatures and
some wrap around precip producing snow showers Saturday night,
mainly for areas above 1500 feet. Upslope showers taper off Sunday
night before a mid-level shortwave trough brings another chance
for showers Monday, followed by building high pressure for the
mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 12z Thursday...SCT/BKN mainly VFR cigs to gradually trend
SCT/SKC after 18Z under light west/northwest flow from 5-10 kts.
After 00Z mainly SKC early, with thickening mid/upper clouds AOA
120 AGL arriving overnight in advance of stronger system. Winds
light. Some patchy br/fg possible here and there, with highest
confidence at KMPV. Confidence only modest of more persistent fg
given aforementioned thickening mid/high clouds overnight.

Outlook 12z Thursday through Sunday...

12z Thursday through 12Z Saturday: Trending OVC with areas of
MVFR/IFR in steadier showers/rain as frontal system and complex
low pressure affect area. Highest probs of IFR intially at NY
terminals (KPBG/KSLK/KMSS) in closer proximity to developing
front, with confidence lower initially at VT terminals. IFR probs
climb for VT terminals after 00Z Saturday as frontal zone and
steadier/heavier rainfal edge east. Again, this is a complex
system so confidence on exact timing of pcpn arrival and cigs/vsby
progs only moderate at this point.

12Z Saturday onward...widespread MVFR/IFR in showers/rain as low
pressure lifts through region.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...JMG

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