Expires:201612112100;;715517
FPUS51 KBTV 111121
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
619 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016
VTZ006-112100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
619 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST MONDAY...
.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW
20 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 20.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO
6 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...
BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR
100 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. CHANCE
OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS 10 TO 15.
.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 5 BELOW
TO ZERO. HIGHS 5 TO 15 ABOVE.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S.
$$
Expires:201612111200;;715909
ASUS41 KBTV 111130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-111200-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON MOCLDY 15 11 83 E3 30.43R
MONTPELIER MOCLDY 1 -4 79 CALM 30.41R
MORRISVILLE CLEAR 1 -4 79 CALM 30.43R
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 0 -5 79 MISG 30.42R
LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 0 -3 85 CALM 30.40R
MIDDLEBURY* MOCLDY 14 9 79 S3 30.42R
RUTLAND* CLOUDY 8 3 80 SE10 30.42R WCI -6
SPRINGFIELD CLEAR 1 -4 79 CALM 30.47R
HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 12 10 89 CALM 30.43S
NEWPORT* FLURRIES 3 0 87 CALM 30.39R
BENNINGTON CLOUDY 19 14 81 CALM 30.42R
SUTTON* N/A 1 N/A N/A MISG N/A
ISLAND POND* N/A -9 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A -2 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 0 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 5 N/A N/A W24 N/A WCI -17
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND* N/A 25 19 80 SE10 N/A WCI 15
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 25 19 80 S12 N/A WCI 14
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 19 14 79 SE8 N/A WCI 9
$$
Expires:No;;715862
FXUS61 KBTV 111129
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
629 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides into the Atlantic Sunday afternoon as a
warm front brings clouds and widespread snow to the North
Country Sunday night through Monday. The Monday morning commute
is expected to be significantly impacted by snow accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches with snow showers continuing into Monday
afternoon. The rest of the week will see on and off chances for
snow showers and a cooling trend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 618 AM EST Sunday...Winter Wx Advisory in effect for Snow
this afternoon through Monday.
500mb shortwave progged to give the North Country widespread
snow tonight into Monday can be easily seen on satellite
imagery. Models fairly consistent with warm air advection
precipitation reaching the western edge of the CWA late this
afternoon and spreading NEwd. Heaviest snowfall rate expected in
the early morning hours Monday, mainly between 06z and 12z.
Models continue to indicate strong 850mb jet out of the SE,
leading to some enhanced qpf/snowfall totals on eastern slopes,
and shadowing in leeward valleys. Guidance suggests mostly snow
event, but as dry slot moves into the region Monday afternoon,
BUFKIT soundings show brief period of DZ/FZDZ possible in areas.
Therefore have mention of trace of ice accumulation, but
overall confidence of ice occurrence much lower.
Towards the end of Monday, surface low shifts east of the area,
near Nova Scotia, but 500mb shortwave lags behind, keeping
mention of snow/snow showers into Monday evening.
Temperatures generally in the 20s today, but not much
diurnal/nocturnal variation going into tonight with warm air
advection and widespread cloud cover. Monday looks to reach the
30s under the strong WAA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EST Sunday...A fast westerly flow aloft develops behind
departing area of low pres with modest low level cold air
advection. Best 850 to 500mb moisture fields are along the
international border with soundings initial showing limited rh
in favorable snow growth region early Monday Evening. This
changes overnight as profiles cool and moisture increases on
favorable upslope snow...under low level cold air advection.
Will mention likely pops dacks and parts of the northern Greens
from Stowe to Jay Peak overnight...with an additional couple of
inches of snow possible. Expecting abundant cloud cover with
soundings showing plenty of moisture between 950mb and
700mb...supporting lows mainly 20s mountains and lower 30s
valleys.
By Tuesday...weak surface ridge builds into our region with drying
aloft and light winds. A few lingering mountain snow showers are
possible with near normal temps...mainly 20s mountains to 30s
valleys. Little change Tuesday Night with weak southerly return flow
developing ahead of our next cold front. Expecting limited diurnal
change in temps with southerly flow and lingering clouds. Lows
mainly in the 20s mountains to near 30f Champlain Valley. Any precip
will be very light and in the form of snow showers.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 340 AM EST Sunday...The big weather story for the long
term will be coldest airmass since Feb 13-14th 2016 is poised to
impact area on Thursday into Friday. Bitterly cold wind chill
values are expected with wind chill highlights likely for
portions of our region during this period...especially dacks and
green mountains.
This will be accompanied by a series of cold fronts/arctic
boundaries with the potential for snow showers and snow
squalls...especially Weds Afternoon into Thursday. ECMWF/GFS/NAM
show first boundary approaching our western cwa by 12z
Weds...with developing southwest 925mb to 850mb southwest flow
of 30 to 40 knots. This will help to advect upstream lake
moisture into our region...ahead of boundary to support likely
pops dacks into northern Green Mountains. Next arctic boundary
with better surface convergence and associated pres couplet
moves across our region Weds Evening into Thursday Morning.
Expecting another round of snow showers and snow
squalls...especially given the arctic airmass behind this front.
The coldest core of temps/thickness with progged 850mb temps
near -30c and 1000 to 500 mb thickness values around 486 occur
btwn 00z Fri and 12z Fri. Expecting additional snow
showers...with some enhanced activity coming of lake champlain
for Thursday Night into Friday. The finer details will need to
be worked out as the event becomes closer...but would not be
surprised of several inches of champlain powder.
The greater impact will be brisk winds creating bitterly cold
wind chill values...especially dacks/green mountains Thursday
Night into Friday. Expecting wind chill values between -20F and
-30F for the dacks and greens with much colder values
approaching -50f for the summits and between -10f and -20f for
the warmer valleys. Advection cold occurs Thursday night so
anticipating lows near -10F SLK to +10 Champlain Valley with
near -20F for summits. Highs on Friday range from -5F summits to
single digit mountains towns to lower/mid teens champlain/saint
lawrence and lower ct river valley. Lows Friday night will be
highly depend upon how quickly clouds and southerly winds
develop ahead of our next system. Would not be surprised to see
temps drop quickly early in the evening...then rise toward
morning. Trended toward the warmer side of guidance with lows
mainly between -5f and +5f...but these values could be 10 to 15
degrees colder if clearing skies persist under surface high
pres...especially northeast Kingdom.
Next large scale synoptic system arrives Saturday into Sunday
with widespread precip event expected. Models in pretty good
agreement with moisture quickly overspread our cwa on
Saturday...under strong low to mid level warm air advection
associated with 850mb jet of 50 to 70 knots. Latest guidance
continues to support a surface low pres track to our north and
west...resulting in a snow to mix event...as our cwa briefly
gets into the warm sector. I have noted latest CMC showing a
more suppressed system to our south...with strong low level cold
air damming signature from 1035mb high pres parked over
northern maine...instead of over the western Atlantic. This
would support colder solution with mostly snow. Temps return to
normal values by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 12z Monday...VFR conditions prevail through the daylight
hours today with exception of some MVFR cigs at SLK this
morning. Warm air advection ahead of low pressure system
approaching from the west will bring snow and MVFR cigs/vsby
from west to east starting around 22Z. Conditions continue to
deteriorate after 00Z as more moisture and snow spread across
the area. Expect heaviest snowfall to produce IFR/LIFR
conditions mainly after 04Z and expected to persist through the
end of the TAF period. Snowfall accumulations of 2-5 inches
possible by 12Z Monday, with snow continuing into the afternoon.
Strong south to southeasterly 850mb jet will result in possible
wind gusts of 20-30kts mainly in the Champlain Valley and along
western slopes after 06Z Monday into late Monday morning.
Outlook 12z Monday through Thursday...
12z Monday - 00z Tuesday: MVFR and IFR in light snow. LLWS and
turbulence possible.
00z Tuesday - 00z Thursday: Mix of VFR/MVFR in scattered snow
showers, with brief IFR possible.
00z Thursday - 00z Friday: MVFR/IFR snow showers likely along
an arctic frontal passage.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Monday for VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
Monday for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Lahiff/KGM
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