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Expires:201612112100;;715517
FPUS51 KBTV 111121
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
619 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016


VTZ006-112100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
619 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST MONDAY...

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW
20 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 20.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY...SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE RAIN
AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO
6 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...
BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR
100 PERCENT. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. CHANCE
OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
HIGHS 10 TO 15. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 5 BELOW
TO ZERO. HIGHS 5 TO 15 ABOVE. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN
THE MID 20S. 

$$


Expires:201612111200;;715909
ASUS41 KBTV 111130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-111200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    15  11  83 E3        30.43R                  
MONTPELIER     MOCLDY     1  -4  79 CALM      30.41R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR      1  -4  79 CALM      30.43R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A      0  -5  79 MISG      30.42R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR       0  -3  85 CALM      30.40R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY    14   9  79 S3        30.42R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY     8   3  80 SE10      30.42R WCI  -6          
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR      1  -4  79 CALM      30.47R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    12  10  89 CALM      30.43S                  
NEWPORT*       FLURRIES   3   0  87 CALM      30.39R                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    19  14  81 CALM      30.42R                  
SUTTON*          N/A      1 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     -9 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     -2 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A      0 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      5 N/A N/A W24         N/A  WCI -17          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     25  19  80 SE10        N/A  WCI  15          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     25  19  80 S12         N/A  WCI  14          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     19  14  79 SE8         N/A  WCI   9          

$$


Expires:No;;715862
FXUS61 KBTV 111129
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
629 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides into the Atlantic Sunday afternoon as a 
warm front brings clouds and widespread snow to the North 
Country Sunday night through Monday. The Monday morning commute 
is expected to be significantly impacted by snow accumulations 
of 2 to 5 inches with snow showers continuing into Monday 
afternoon. The rest of the week will see on and off chances for 
snow showers and a cooling trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 618 AM EST Sunday...Winter Wx Advisory in effect for Snow
this afternoon through Monday. 

500mb shortwave progged to give the North Country widespread 
snow tonight into Monday can be easily seen on satellite 
imagery. Models fairly consistent with warm air advection 
precipitation reaching the western edge of the CWA late this 
afternoon and spreading NEwd. Heaviest snowfall rate expected in
the early morning hours Monday, mainly between 06z and 12z. 
Models continue to indicate strong 850mb jet out of the SE, 
leading to some enhanced qpf/snowfall totals on eastern slopes, 
and shadowing in leeward valleys. Guidance suggests mostly snow 
event, but as dry slot moves into the region Monday afternoon, 
BUFKIT soundings show brief period of DZ/FZDZ possible in areas.
Therefore have mention of trace of ice accumulation, but 
overall confidence of ice occurrence much lower. 

Towards the end of Monday, surface low shifts east of the area,
near Nova Scotia, but 500mb shortwave lags behind, keeping 
mention of snow/snow showers into Monday evening. 

Temperatures generally in the 20s today, but not much 
diurnal/nocturnal variation going into tonight with warm air 
advection and widespread cloud cover. Monday looks to reach the 
30s under the strong WAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EST Sunday...A fast westerly flow aloft develops behind 
departing area of low pres with modest low level cold air 
advection. Best 850 to 500mb moisture fields are along the 
international border with soundings initial showing limited rh 
in favorable snow growth region early Monday Evening. This 
changes overnight as profiles cool and moisture increases on 
favorable upslope snow...under low level cold air advection. 
Will mention likely pops dacks and parts of the northern Greens 
from Stowe to Jay Peak overnight...with an additional couple of 
inches of snow possible. Expecting abundant cloud cover with 
soundings showing plenty of moisture between 950mb and 
700mb...supporting lows mainly 20s mountains and lower 30s 
valleys. 

By Tuesday...weak surface ridge builds into our region with drying 
aloft and light winds. A few lingering mountain snow showers are 
possible with near normal temps...mainly 20s mountains to 30s 
valleys. Little change Tuesday Night with weak southerly return flow 
developing ahead of our next cold front. Expecting limited diurnal 
change in temps with southerly flow and lingering clouds. Lows 
mainly in the 20s mountains to near 30f Champlain Valley. Any precip 
will be very light and in the form of snow showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 340 AM EST Sunday...The big weather story for the long 
term will be coldest airmass since Feb 13-14th 2016 is poised to
impact area on Thursday into Friday. Bitterly cold wind chill 
values are expected with wind chill highlights likely for 
portions of our region during this period...especially dacks and
green mountains.

This will be accompanied by a series of cold fronts/arctic 
boundaries with the potential for snow showers and snow 
squalls...especially Weds Afternoon into Thursday. ECMWF/GFS/NAM
show first boundary approaching our western cwa by 12z 
Weds...with developing southwest 925mb to 850mb southwest flow 
of 30 to 40 knots. This will help to advect upstream lake 
moisture into our region...ahead of boundary to support likely 
pops dacks into northern Green Mountains. Next arctic boundary 
with better surface convergence and associated pres couplet 
moves across our region Weds Evening into Thursday Morning. 
Expecting another round of snow showers and snow 
squalls...especially given the arctic airmass behind this front.
The coldest core of temps/thickness with progged 850mb temps 
near -30c and 1000 to 500 mb thickness values around 486 occur 
btwn 00z Fri and 12z Fri. Expecting additional snow 
showers...with some enhanced activity coming of lake champlain 
for Thursday Night into Friday. The finer details will need to 
be worked out as the event becomes closer...but would not be 
surprised of several inches of champlain powder.

The greater impact will be brisk winds creating bitterly cold 
wind chill values...especially dacks/green mountains Thursday 
Night into Friday. Expecting wind chill values between -20F and 
-30F for the dacks and greens with much colder values 
approaching -50f for the summits and between -10f and -20f for 
the warmer valleys. Advection cold occurs Thursday night so 
anticipating lows near -10F SLK to +10 Champlain Valley with 
near -20F for summits. Highs on Friday range from -5F summits to
single digit mountains towns to lower/mid teens champlain/saint
lawrence and lower ct river valley. Lows Friday night will be 
highly depend upon how quickly clouds and southerly winds 
develop ahead of our next system. Would not be surprised to see 
temps drop quickly early in the evening...then rise toward 
morning. Trended toward the warmer side of guidance with lows 
mainly between -5f and +5f...but these values could be 10 to 15 
degrees colder if clearing skies persist under surface high 
pres...especially northeast Kingdom.

Next large scale synoptic system arrives Saturday into Sunday 
with widespread precip event expected. Models in pretty good 
agreement with moisture quickly overspread our cwa on 
Saturday...under strong low to mid level warm air advection 
associated with 850mb jet of 50 to 70 knots. Latest guidance 
continues to support a surface low pres track to our north and 
west...resulting in a snow to mix event...as our cwa briefly 
gets into the warm sector. I have noted latest CMC showing a 
more suppressed system to our south...with strong low level cold
air damming signature from 1035mb high pres parked over 
northern maine...instead of over the western Atlantic. This 
would support colder solution with mostly snow. Temps return to 
normal values by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Through 12z Monday...VFR conditions prevail through the daylight
hours today with exception of some MVFR cigs at SLK this
morning. Warm air advection ahead of low pressure system
approaching from the west will bring snow and MVFR cigs/vsby 
from west to east starting around 22Z. Conditions continue to
deteriorate after 00Z as more moisture and snow spread across
the area. Expect heaviest snowfall to produce IFR/LIFR
conditions mainly after 04Z and expected to persist through the
end of the TAF period. Snowfall accumulations of 2-5 inches
possible by 12Z Monday, with snow continuing into the afternoon. 

Strong south to southeasterly 850mb jet will result in possible
wind gusts of 20-30kts mainly in the Champlain Valley and along
western slopes after 06Z Monday into late Monday morning.

Outlook 12z Monday through Thursday...

12z Monday - 00z Tuesday: MVFR and IFR in light snow. LLWS and 
turbulence possible.

00z Tuesday - 00z Thursday: Mix of VFR/MVFR in scattered snow 
showers, with brief IFR possible.

00z Thursday - 00z Friday: MVFR/IFR snow showers likely along 
an arctic frontal passage.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST 
     Monday for VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST 
     Monday for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Deal/KGM
NEAR TERM...KGM
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Lahiff/KGM

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