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Expires:201701102100;;264727
FPUS51 KBTV 100804
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
302 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2017


VTZ006-102100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
302 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2017

.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 1 INCH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...SNOW. RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO
2 INCHES. BREEZY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTH WINDS 15 TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH...DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SNOW. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 30S. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND ZERO. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 20. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 10 TO 15. 
.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. 

$$


Expires:201701101200;;273781
ASUS41 KBTV 101130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST TUE JAN 10 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-101200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    18   5  57 S10G18    30.52S WCI   6          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY     1  -2  87 NW3       30.53R                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    -1  -6  79 CALM      30.53S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     -1  -6  79 MISG      30.56R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      -1  -4  85 CALM      30.52S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      14  -3  46 S3        30.54R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY     6   0  76 SE12      30.54S WCI  -9          
SPRINGFIELD    PTCLDY    -2  -7  79 CALM      30.60S                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      17   5  59 S9G16     30.51S WCI   6          
NEWPORT*       FAIR       8   1  73 S6        30.51S WCI  -2          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY     8   3  80 CALM      30.53R                  
SUTTON*          N/A      1 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A    -11 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     -8 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     -2 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A      9 N/A N/A SW2G18      N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     21  10  63 S22         N/A  WCI   5          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     23  18  80 S32         N/A  WCI   5          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     19  10  68 S17         N/A  WCI   4          

$$


Expires:No;;268460
FXUS61 KBTV 100925
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
425 AM EST Tue Jan 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Deepening low pressure over the western Great Lakes combined
with high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will result in
increasingly strong and gusty south winds across the region this
afternoon through tonight. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible
across the northern Champlain valley and the northern slopes of
the Adirondacks, with peak gusts likely to occur this evening. 
A warm front approaching from the Ohio Valley will bring 
increasing cloudiness today, with developing periods of light 
snow this afternoon into this evening, changing to a wintry mix
tonight. Snow and sleet accumulations will generally be light,
but minor impacts to the travel during the evening commute and
into tonight can be expected. Temperatures will trend well above
average Wednesday and Thursday. Highs are expected in the low to
mid 40s for Wednesday, and upper 40s to around 50 in spots on
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 345 AM EST Tuesday...With this forecast package, have 
upgraded to High Wind Warnings across the northern Champlain 
Valley, including the Champlain Islands. Also included a high
wind warning for the nrn slopes of the Adirondacks in the Malone
NY area (nrn Franklin Co NY). Expanded the wind advisory to 
include the remainder of VT along/west of the Green Mtns, and 
across all of nrn NY. These highlights are in effect from 3pm
this afternoon through 3am Wednesday, with peak wind intensity 
generally expected 8 pm thru 11 pm this evening. 

Rapidly deepening low pressure expected to take shape in the
upper Mississippi river Valley/western Great Lakes region today,
before tracking into northern Ontario tonight as a mid-970mb
low. Deep-layer S to SW flow will be on the increase across NY
and western New England, aided also by strong offshore high 
pressure east of the Canadian Maritimes. Warm frontal structure
taking shape across the upr Ohio Valley shifts newd, with
increasingly low-level WAA across NY/VT this afternoon and
tonight. Thus, with overrunning/isentropic ascent, we'll see an
increase in mid-upper level clouds today, followed by developing
light snow this afternoon across nrn NY, and late aftn/early
evening across VT. Vertical temperature profiles warm this
evening and overnight, supporting a transition to intermittent 
sleet and possible rain in the warmer valleys (Champlain and 
St. Lawrence Valleys). Also, getting a small region where some
freezing rain is possible across the nrn Adirondacks. It appears
we won't see enough warming aloft in VT to support freezing rain
setup. All in all, anticipating light accumulations...1-3"
snow/sleet...lowest in the Champlain Valley with orographic
shadowing in strengthening swly flow. Highest snowfall will be
across the higher peaks of the Adirondacks and far nern VT. Any
ice accumulation will be limited (<0.05") and mainly across St.
Lawrence into Franklin counties this evening. Minor travel
impacts possible areawide for the evening commute thru the
overnight hours, but generally not enough to warrant a winter
weather advisory. Have included mention of wintry travel impacts
in the morning Hazardous Weather Outlook. 

The more significant story will be the strong and gusty south 
winds. NWP signals remain consistent with previous runs, with 
south 70-75kt 925mb wind signature in the Champlain Valley and 
nrn slopes of the Adirondacks associated with channeled flow and
downslope effects, respectively. Given downsloping and 
orographic shadowing, precip will be intermittent in these two 
areas, allowing good opportunities for downward mixing. The NAM,
NCEP 4kmWRF, BTV 2km/4km WRF all point to 50kt (58mph) surface 
wind gusts vcnty of Lake Champlain, and near/south of Malone NY 
between 00-04Z this evening. Thus, made the decision to upgrade 
to high wind warnings central/nrn Champlain Valley and nrn 
Franklin County NY. Also could see wind gusts 45-50mph across 
the remainder of wrn VT (along west of the Green Mtns), and the 
remainder of nrn NY. Have expanded the wind advisory 
accordingly. Main impacts will be scattered power outages, 
especially in high wind warning area. Also, those planning to 
take the Plattsburgh-Grand Isle Ferry will want to check on 
possible service interruptions due to high wind/wave conditions
this aftn thru tonight. 

Temperatures will be moderating with the persistent south
winds next 24 hrs. Highs this afternoon generally reach the 
low-mid 30s, and remain quasi-steady tonight. 

For Wednesday, will see mid-level shortwave trough shift to our
east before daybreak, with breezy/windy conditions from the SW
with passage of a surface trough. May see gusts to 40 mph in the
St. Lawrence Valley thru Wednesday morning in the SW flow.
Otherwise, looking at clearing and mostly dry conditions
Wednesday. Well above normal temps as well, with highs generally
in the mid 40s for valley locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 347 AM EST Tuesday...A quiet evening is on tap for 
Wednesday evening as warm air begins to push into the North 
Country. Southerly winds ahead of a surface low pressure system 
will have warm air advection going in full force as we start out
with 925mb temps -1C to 1C at 00z Thursday and by Thursday 
morning temps will be +5C in the Champlain Valley and as warm as
+7C over the Saint Lawrence Valley. As the surface cold front 
slides into the Great Lakes region light rain will move into 
northern New York by Thursday morning and then spread over the 
rest of the North Country by early afternoon. There may be some 
cold air trapped along eastern Vermont so I have continued 
mention of some freezing rain although with the warm air surging
in, I dont anticipate much if any ice accumulation and just 
have a trace mentioned in the forecast. By mid afternoon the 
warm air completely wins out and we just see fairly steady rain
across most the North County. The exception to that is over the
Champlain valley where once again we will see shadowing and 
downsloping effects due to a 45-55kt 850mb southwesterly jet. 
Precip totals for the North Country are marginal with the best 
dynamics and support over the Tug Hill and southern Adirondacks 
areas in New York.

Temperatures to start the evening will be holding fairly steady
in the mid to upper 40s until the surface cold front finally 
starts to track through the region. It should be quite the 
front as temps drop by nearly 20 degrees over 12 hours. Our lows
will occur just before sunrise Friday morning in the upper 20s 
to low 30s. As the front moves through, there could be a few 
snow showers accompanying the front but moisture appears to be 
limited so the showers would be focused in the higher terrain 
due to orographic enhancement.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 419 AM EST Tuesday...A big dome of high pressure will be 
building into the Northeast as models project it to be as 
strong as 1040-1050mb. This will result in quiet weather with 
clear to partly cloudy skies. The high pressure also means a 
return of cooler air with temps dropping back to near normal 
with lows in the single digits Friday night and highs in the 
lower 20s expected to start the weekend. The high pressure 
should remain in place to start Sunday morning however there is 
a bit of discontinuity in the models as to how Sunday evening 
turns out. I leaned towards a blend of the available guidance 
which keeps the area dry through Sunday night with light snow 
returning Monday as an upper level trough and surface low 
pressure system begins to track up through the Great Lakes. 
Similarly to most of this "winter" the low tracks north and west
of the North Country and we could be looking snow on Monday 
followed by a transition to wintry mix and or rain on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through 
20Z Tuesday, as a ridge of high pressure will be over the 
region. A warm front will approach the region after 18Z Tuesday,
with ceilings lowering. Expecting some light snow to develop 
across the Saint Lawrence valley and the Adirondacks between 18z
and 21Z Tuesday, with conditions lowering to MVFR/IFR. expecting
a gradual change over around or after 00Z Wednesday to sleet,
freezing rain and plain rain  Also, surface pressure gradient 
to tighten across the region by 18Z Tuesday, so expecting 
southerly surface wind gusts of 20 knots or greater to develop 
across the region and continue through 06Z Wednesday.

Outlook 06z Wednesday through Saturday... 

06Z Wednesday through 00Z Thursday...MVFR to brief IFR in 
intermittent snow transitioning to rain and sleet Tuesday night.
Drier for Wednesday, but MVFR ceilings may linger. Southerly 
wind gusts to 35-40kts at BTV Tuesday afternoon until midnight 
Tuesday night. LLWS possible elsewhere late Tuesday into Tuesday
night. 

00Z Thursday through 06Z Friday...Periods of rain. MVFR and 
intervals of IFR conditions expected areawide and HIR TRRN 
OBSCD.

06Z Friday onward...Trending primarily VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 353 PM EST Monday...Strong winds will develop over the 
lake Tuesday afternoon and continue into early Wednesday 
morning. Expect south winds of 30 to 40 knots with gusts in the 
45 to 55 knot range during this time period. This will lead to 
very rough waters and waves in the 5 to 8 foot range.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EST Wednesday 
     for VTZ009-011-016>019.
     High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EST 
     Wednesday for VTZ001-002-005.
NY...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EST Wednesday 
     for NYZ026-029>031-034-035-087.
     High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EST 
     Wednesday for NYZ027-028.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...WGH/Nash
MARINE...Nash

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