Expires:201701112100;;329401 FPUS51 KBTV 111137 ZFPBTV ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 635 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017 VTZ006-112100- LAMOILLE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE 635 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017 .TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH THIS MORNING. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. .THURSDAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. .THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SNOW. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. TEMPERATURE FALLING TO AROUND 15 IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND ZERO. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 15 TO 20. .SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE. .SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. .SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. .MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 30. .MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. $$ Expires:201701111200;;329013 ASUS41 KBTV 111130 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EST WED JAN 11 2017 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-111200- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON CLOUDY 40 35 83 S23G38 29.84R WCI 30 MONTPELIER CLOUDY 40 32 73 SW16G26 29.92R WCI 31 MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 42 35 76 SW13G24 29.84R ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 39 36 89 MISG 29.87R LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 36 35 94 SE12G21 29.87R WCI 28 MIDDLEBURY* MOCLDY 40 28 64 S13G20 29.95R RUTLAND* CLOUDY 44 33 65 S16G26 29.94R SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 39 35 86 S9 29.98S HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 40 34 80 S20G29 29.77R WCI 30 NEWPORT* DRIZZLE 37 34 87 S14G24 29.80S WCI 29 BENNINGTON CLOUDY 42 33 70 SW12G21 30.01R SUTTON* N/A 34 N/A N/A MISG N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 39 34 81 S36G45 N/A WCI 26 COLCHESTER RF* N/A 41 37 87 S39G48 N/A WCI 28 DIAMOND ISL* N/A 39 36 87 S23G29 N/A WCI 29 $$ Expires:No;;323549 FXUS61 KBTV 110916 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 416 AM EST Wed Jan 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Strong low pressure moving well to our northwest across northern Ontario will continue to bring gusty south to southwest winds to the North Country this morning. Also, intermittent light mixed wintry precipitation will lead to a few icy spots on secondary and back roads early this morning. After a dry period this afternoon and much of tonight, another frontal system with low pressure passing to our west will bring additional light to moderate rainfall to the North Country for Thursday into the first half of Thursday night. Temperatures today and Thursday will be well above mid-January normals, with highs generally in the 40s. Lows tonight will generally be in the upper 30s. More seasonable and drier weather returns to the North Country Friday and through the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 332 AM EST Wednesday...Have reoriented our wind advisories to include the St. Lawrence Valley and all of Clinton Co. through 16Z this morning. Have seen very strong swly wind gusts of 50-60mph behind the approaching trough axis across wrn NY. While some weakening is expected, still anticipate gusts around 50mph around MSS 11-13Z and adjacent areas with channeled flow in the St. Lawrence Valley. Elsewhere, still seeing gusts 35-40 mph range, but the southerly gusts are generally below advisory level. Have opted to allow remainder of the wind advisories/high wind warnings to expire, and threat of 50 mph gusts in the St. Lawrence Valley should also end by 15-16Z this morning. Rapidly newd moving shortwave trough associated with a variety of precipitation types across the North Country at 08Z. While no significant snow/sleet accumulations are forecast (<1"), getting some rain falling onto cold surfaces causing some icing conditions, especially for secondary and back roads, despite 2-m temps generally mid-upr 30s areawide. Have highlighted this in the morning Hazardous Weather Outlook. Should see precipitation ending quickly by 11-12Z with trough passage and loss of large-scale forcing. Anticipate partly to mostly sunny conditions by afternoon and very mild temps for mid-January. Aftn highs should reach the mid 40s in most areas. High pressure will be short-lived, with next frontal wave passing to our west across sern Ontario during Thursday morning. Anticipate overcast conditions redeveloping with light to moderate rainfall overspreading the region Thursday AM across nrn NY, and mainly during the aftn hours in VT. Continued s-sw winds will keep lows tonight in the mid 30s to lower 40s in most areas, with highs in the mid 40s on Thursday. Rainfall amts are expected to reach 0.30" in the Champlain Valley with orographic shadowing in sw flow aloft, to 0.50-0.70" in the nrn Adirondacks and across n-central/nern VT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 412 AM EST Wednesday...The surface front will be clearing the North Country Thursday night into Friday morning thus the precip will be coming to an end for most locations shortly after midnight Thursday night. The flow behind the front will shift from southerly to northwest and so we will keep some light orographic snow but nothing significant. Expect above 1500 feet to see a dusting with the summits picking up 1-2" inches of dry snow. Temperatures will be the main story on Friday as we see nearly a 20 degree drop from Thursday. Even so the upper 20s to low 30s will still be above normal but cold air advection will be ushering more normal conditions as broad and strong high pressure system builds into the North Country. As the high builds, our sensible weather turns quite with clearing skies. Fortunately or unfortunately depending on your love of winter, temps will crash Friday night into the single digits above and below zero. It will be tricky to see how many sites actually get below zero because with the warm up and rain expected on Thursday a fair bit of snow is expected to melt. Its quite difficult for us to see 0 or below 0 unless there's snow on the ground even under strong radiational cooling. The forecast works on the assumption that pretty much everywhere that will keep a snow pack should see below zero temps while in locations such as the Champlain Valley where snow is limited, temps should stay in the single digits above zero. The other concern is how much ice movement we get on the rivers. I dont expect any significant hydro issues especially due to the latest NOHRSC snow water equivalent maps depicting 2-4" of SWE in the higher terrain and generally less than an inch of SWE in the Champlain and Saint Lawrence valleys. However, with the warmth and rain on Thursday there could be some ice movement so we'll need to keep an eye on the gauges to see if there ends up being any ice jams. Rule of thumb is that we need water to rise by twice the ice thickness in order to break up the ice and based on latest NERFC guidance thats possible on a few of our rivers. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 412 AM EST Wednesday...The huge high pressure will dominate the weekend and based on the trends of the latest 00z guidance, we could be looking at a fairly long period of quiet weather around the North Country. The trends are showing the high pressure being much slower to depart New England and sitting just offshore well into Tuesday. So the changes to the forecast at this point were to trend the chance for precip even further down from what the day shift had yesterday. The next best chance for precip appears to be by midweek as a low pressure system begins to track up through the Great Lakes. Similarly to most of this "winter" the low tracks north and west of the North Country and we could be looking snow on late Tuesday with a transition to wintry mix and or rain into Wednesday. This far out there's not need to get cute so I left it as a rain or snow forecast but it doesn't appear to be anything significant. && .AVIATION /09Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 06Z Thursday...A deepening low pressure area over the western Great Lakes at 05z Wednesday will move northeast into Canada overnight. Expecting any mixed precipitation to change to mainly plain rain after 06Z Wednesday, as model guidance showing surface temperatures rising above freezing overnight. Expecting mainly MVFR conditions overnight. Expecting precipitation to come to an end across the region between 10Z- 12Z Wednesday, as a mid level dry slot moves into the region. South to southwest surface wind gusts are expected to be at or above 20 knots through 00Z Thursday. Expecting some southerly surface wind gusts up to around 40 knots through 11Z Wednesday. Skies will become mainly clear across the region by 18Z Wednesday. Expecting increasing mid and high clouds after 00Z Thursday. Outlook 06Z Thursday through Sunday... 06Z Thu through 00Z Friday...becoming MVFR with intervals of IFR in rain. HIR TRRN OBSCD. 00Z Friday through 00z Saturday...Trending VFR with cold front moving through the area. May see scattered -SHSN with the frontal passage Thursday night or early Friday morning. 00z Saturday onward...Primarily VFR. && .HYDROLOGY... Anticipate sharp within bank rises Thursday through Friday associated with rainfall amounts of 0.3 to 0.7" and higher elevation snowmelt due to highs in the 40s Wed/Thu, and overnight lows holding above freezing. While not significant by itself, the additional potential for ice breakup may cause localized ice jam flooding Thursday/Friday, and will be something that will need to be monitored. && .MARINE... As of 400 AM EST Wednesday...Strong south winds will continue across Lake Champlain, generally 25-35kt during the daylight hours with early morning gusts in excess of 40kt. Waves will remain 4-6 feet at least through the morning hours. Not much improvement through Thursday, with strong pressure gradient maintaining winds generally 20 to 30kt range tonight and Thursday. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NYZ026>028-031- 087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...WGH/Nash HYDROLOGY...Banacos MARINE...Evenson - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html