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Expires:201701092100;;220496
FPUS51 KBTV 091116
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
614 AM EST MON JAN 9 2017


VTZ006-092100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
614 AM EST MON JAN 9 2017

.TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. HIGHS
AROUND 17. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 8 ABOVE. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION A
DUSTING TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW OR RAIN OR SLEET LIKELY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. BREEZY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTH
WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
70 PERCENT. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY...RAIN LIKELY OR A CHANCE OF SNOW. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
70 PERCENT. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 20. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. 

$$


Expires:201701091200;;220736
ASUS41 KBTV 091130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST MON JAN 09 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-091200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     PTCLDY     4  -4  69 E5        30.59S WCI  -5          
MONTPELIER     PTCLDY    -4  -8  83 S5        30.53R WCI -15          
MORRISVILLE      N/A     -2  -7  79 CALM      30.55S HAZE             
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     -5  -9  83 MISG      30.54R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      -6 -11  81 CALM      30.51R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR       1 -13  50 SE5       30.57F WCI  -9          
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     -2  -6  83 CALM      30.56R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLEAR     -3  -8  79 CALM      30.57R                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      -1  -6  78 CALM      30.61S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      -8 -13  80 CALM      30.52S                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR      0  -5  79 CALM      30.57R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     -9 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A    -13 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A    -15 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     -6 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A    -13 N/A N/A W14G32      N/A  WCI -35          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A      7  -4  61 NW5         N/A  WCI  -2          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A      9   0  66 NW10        N/A  WCI  -6          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A      9   1  72 SE9         N/A  WCI  -5          

$$


Expires:No;;215846
FXUS61 KBTV 090929
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
429 AM EST Mon Jan 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift east of New England by this afternoon, 
allowing for developing south winds across the North Country and the 
start of a moderating temperature trend. A warm front will bring 
periods of light snow Tuesday afternoon, followed by intermittent 
sleet and possible rain Tuesday night. Prior to the wintry mix, a 
light snow accumulation may result in minor travel delays for the 
Tuesday evening commute. Also expecting gusty south winds in the 
Champlain Valley, as high as 45 mph Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday 
night. Another frontal wave passing to our west on Thursday will 
bring additional precipitation in the form of light to moderate 
rain. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will be well above mid-
January climatological normals, with highs generally well into the 
40s, and perhaps hitting 50 degrees in spots on Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 358 AM EST Monday...Very cold start this morning with 
mostly clear skies and 1036mb surface ridge centered across the 
North Country. Temperatures at 08Z were in the teens below zero 
across the Adirondacks and St. Lawrence County, where clear 
skies and light winds have been in place for several hours. 
Clouds diminished more recently across much of VT, where temps 
ranged from around +5F near Lake Champlain, to zero to -10F 
across the Northeast Kingdom. 

We'll see the start or a moderating trend as surface 
anticyclone shifts south and east of New England, and a S-SW 
low-level return flow develops this afternoon. West of the 
Greens, looking for S-SW winds 10-20 mph, with gusts up to 25-30
mph with channeled flow in the Champlain Valley. Meanwhile, IR 
imagery depicts mid- upper level clouds across the central/ern 
Great Lakes associated with a moisture starved mid-level wave. 
Will see skies trend cloudy this afternoon, but absence of much 
low-level convergence/moisture will allow this shortwave trough 
to come thru mostly dry. Included just a slight chance of a few 
flurries this aftn, mainly across the mtns of nrn VT and the St.
Lawrence Valley. Temperatures will climb into the mid teens 
east of the Green Mtns, and upr teens to lower 20s west of the 
Greens. Won't feel like much of a warm up (yet) given increasing
wind speeds this aftn and general overcast conditions. 

Mid-level shortwave trough translates east of the region 
tonight with partial clearing, though SW 850mb flow may bring 
some moisture/low clouds from Lake Ontario this evening and 
overnight. Continued south winds tonight will result in 
temperatures not nearly as cold as Sunday Night/Monday morning. 
Looking for lows 14-18F in the Champlain and St. Lawrence 
Valleys. Will see readings in the single digits above zero for 
the Northern Adirondacks and much of central/ern VT. May see 
localized readings below zero across the colder valleys of far 
nern VT. 

On Tuesday, will see a deepening low pressure system across the
western Great Lakes into northern Ontario by early evening. 
East of this feature, will see continued low-level WAA regime 
and strengthening gradient flow field across the North Country. 
High temperatures on Tuesday will reach the lower 30s in most 
sections. Anticipating skies becoming cloudy once again, with 
intermittent periods of snow developing generally by 18-21Z. 
Vertical temperature profiles mainly favor snow through 00Z Wed,
though may begin to see some sleet mixing in across nrn NY 
toward the end of the day Tuesday. Overall, generally looking at
snowfall 1-2", with perhaps some minor travel impacts for the 
Tuesday evening commute based on timing of snowfall. Will see 
some orographic effects, including shadowing in the Champlain 
Valley due to swly 850mb winds increasing to 65kt by 00Z 
Wednesday. 

Strong surface winds do become a concern as well, especially 
with channeled southerly flow across Lake Champlain and the VT 
side of the Champlain Valley. BTV-4km WRF shows sly 70kt 925mb 
winds across the Champlain Islands and wrn Chittenden and 
Franklin Counties at 00Z Wednesday. Generally looking at winds 
25-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph at the surface in the narrow 
corridor including the Champlain Is. and VT side of the 
Champlain Vly, but could be slightly stronger than that at 
times. May also see some strong and gusty downslope winds on the
northern slopes of the Adirondacks. Included mention of 
isolated power outages in the morning Hazardous Weather Outlook.
Will continue to monitor threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 349 AM EST Monday...Tuesday night the surface low 
pressure system will be pushing through the Great Lakes to our 
north and west. That will continue to drive warm air advection 
into the North Country. Thermal profiles support a transition 
from snow to sleet west of the Greens with mainly just snow east
of the Green in the early evening. By midnight the warm nose 
aloft should push completely into the North Country and we will 
be looking at a wintry mix with rain/sleet/snow mixed in.

In the late overnight hours early Wednesday morning the low 
will track towards James Bay which will bring a temporary shot 
of cold air leading to our precip type becoming a mix of rain or
snow depending on boundary layer temperatures with rain in the 
valleys and snow in the higher terrain above 2000 feet. By late
Wednesday morning, however, expect the warm air to win out and 
we all locations should be just rain.

The winds will be quite strong aloft with a southwesterly jet 
at 850 between 50-70kts so this is shaping up to be a classic 
Champlain Valley and Eastern Slopes shadowing event. I tried to
depict that in the forecast by reducing the model precip totals
by as much as 25% in the Champlain Valley. Generally expecting 
between a tenth of an inch in the Champlain Valley to as 0.3-0.4
inches across the rest of the North Country. This leads to 
generally 1-3" inches of snow with fairly low snow ratios in the
9-11:1 range especially as the rain mixes in.

As mentioned earlier the winds will be quite strong Tuesday
night into early Wednesday morning. With the 850mb jet 
approaching 70 kts at MSS and southwesterly jet over the 
Champlain valley between 50-60kts we will be looking at close to
Wind Advisory conditions. The winds should funnel up both the 
Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys which will lead to gust of 
30-40 mph with gusts in the mountains approaching 60-70mph. This
could lead to some isolated power outages especially on the the
Vermont side of the Champlain Valley. As of the 00z suite of 
guidance, the lapse rates are steeper in the Champlain Valley 
than the Saint Lawrence so even the 850mb jet is stronger in the
Saint Lawrence mixing heights are about 300-500feet deeper in 
the Champlain Valley and thus the higher forecast for wind 
gusts.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 425 AM EST Monday...The rainfall eventually comes to an 
end Wednesday evening but as it does, another upper level 
trough digs in just west of the Great Lakes. This keeps much of 
the area in persistent southwest flow as a stationary surface 
front sits to our west. We stay in that southwest flow, and 
temps warm throughout as warm air from the Gulf of Mexico 
pushes north. 850mb temps on Thursday warm to +6 to +7 across 
the North Country supporting max temps in the upper 40s with a 
few spot 50's likley especially across the Southern Champlain 
Valley. Normal temps for Thursday should be in the upper 20s so
we will be approaching nearly 20 degrees above normal.

The front then slowly moves through the North Country on Friday
which will bring more rain to the area however the highest qpf
numbers based on the consensus track should be to to our west.
The cold air should surge in back behind that front as a fairly
strong high pressure system builds in over the weekend. The GFS
has a 1045mb high cresting just to our north over Quebec while
the EC has a 1037mb high in a generally similar location. With
the high cresting aloft and partly cloudy to clear skies expect
excellent radiational cooling on Saturday night. So I've 
trended a bit towards MOS guidance because at that far our, the 
model blends tend to struggle with how cold we can bottom out. 
Expect highs near to slight below normal in the mid 20s with 
lows in the upper single digits to low teens both Friday night 
and Saturday night. Sunday will be above normal with highs in 
the upper 20s and lows in the upper teens.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...A ridge of high pressure will build into
the region on Monday. Expecting mainly VFR conditions through 
the period. Model guidance showing some weak warm advection
moving northeast across the Saint lawrence valley and
Adirondacks after 18Z Monday, so some flurries or very light
snow showers may be possible in these areas.

Outlook 06Z Tuesday through Friday... 

06Z Tuesday through 12z Tuesday...generally VFR.

12Z Tuesday through 00Z Thursday...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR in 
snow...transitioning to rain and sleet.

00Z Thursday through 12Z Thursday...brief break in precipitation
with generally VFR conditions expected. 

12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday...MVFR/IFR as low pressure 
system affects the region with a mix of rain and snow possible.

12Z Friday onward...conditions improving to VFR under high
pressure.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...WGH/KGM

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