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Expires:201701122100;;379727
FPUS51 KBTV 121037
ZFPBTV

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
534 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017


VTZ006-122100-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF JOHNSON AND STOWE
534 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

.TODAY...RAIN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT. 
.TONIGHT...RAIN LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION A DUSTING TO 1 INCH. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.
WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. TEMPERATURE FALLING TO AROUND 15 IN
THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
CHANCE OF SNOW 20 PERCENT. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. MUCH COLDER WITH LOWS AROUND 4 BELOW.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 16. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. 
.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 30. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. 
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. 

$$


Expires:201701121200;;381942
ASUS41 KBTV 121130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-121200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  46  41  82 S17G29    29.81F                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  40  37  89 S10       29.89F                  
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  40  35  83 S3        29.85F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     42  36  79 MISG      29.87F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   RAIN      39  36  89 SE8G18    29.88F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    LGT RAIN  46  34  64 S9        29.87S                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  44  42  93 SE9       29.88F                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    38  35  89 CALM      29.96F                  
HIGHGATE*      RAIN      44  41  91 S14G24    29.78F                  
NEWPORT*       RAIN      39  37  90 S13G20    29.83S WCI  32          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    49  43  80 SW8       29.92F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     37 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     43 N/A N/A S6          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     34 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     36 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     36 N/A N/A SW31G55     N/A  WCI  22          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     43  39  87 S26G32      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     43  43 100 S33         N/A  WCI  32          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     45  41  87 S24         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;382204
FXUS61 KBTV 121134
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
634 AM EST Thu Jan 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will continue for one more day today. In 
addition...expect fairly widespread rain across the area as highs 
will be in the 40s to around 50. A cold front will move into the 
region early tonight and begin to usher in colder air for Friday and 
the remainder of the weekend. Drier weather is also expected for the 
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 535 AM EST Thursday...Going forecast in good shape with 
no big changes needed at this time. Moisture continues to surge 
northeast into the region early this morning and rain chances 
will be increasing as a result. Temperatures are generally in 
the 40s...thus precipitation will be in the form of rain. There 
should be a little lull in the precipitation later this morning 
and early afternoon before another surge of moisture moves 
through and widespread rain exists once again. During this break
we should see our warmest temperatures will highs well into the
40s to around 50.

Cold front quickly pushes across the region early tonight bringing 
the majority of the precipitation to an end...although west to 
northwest flow aloft will promote some orographic showers overnight. 
Temperatures will be falling and therefore this precipitation will 
be in the form of snow showers...but at this time any accumulations 
in the mountains should be less than an inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 353 AM EST Thursday...Flow will become northwesterly 
following frontal passage and some upslope snow showers are 
expected on Friday. Guidance has trended towards the moisture
exiting even faster following the front so I dont anticipate
much snow anywhere other than above 2500 feet. Summits can 
expect 1-2" inches while precip ends very quickly Friday
morning. Bufkit soundings from the nam4km and local BTV4 wrf 
show pretty good mixing Friday afternoon so I've continued to 
show gusts of 20-30 mph possible. By Friday night a large ridge 
of surface high pressure and colder air move into the region. 
With strong cold air advection temperatures crash Friday night 
into the single digits above and below zero. The typical colder 
hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom will likely see
teens below zero.

With the rapid warmth on Thursday, and the precip overnight on
Thursday, we expect there will be some ice movement on Friday.
Rivers such as the Ausable, Passumpsic, Lamoille, and 
Missisquoi likely have seen pretty good ice development over 
the past few nights. Then with the warmth and precip expect 
sharp rises in the water levels leading to the ice breaking up. 
The unknown factor is how thick the ice is, but even so with the
low sun angle its most likely firm ice than we'd see in late 
Spring. Thus we'd expect the ice to be capable of jamming 
quickly. Will continue to actively watch river levels for the 
possibility of some localized flooding on Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 418 AM EST Thursday...A broad dome of high pressure will 
build in over the weekend and dominate the weather pattern 
through the early portion of next week. Expect quiet sensible 
weather under broad subsidence and radiational cold nights in 
the single digits to lower teens. Trends in the latest runs of 
medium range guidance still point to the weather staying quiet 
until Tuesday so I've kept any mention of showers out until 
Tuesday.

Tuesday an upper level shortwave trough with a corresponding
surface low track up through the Great Lakes region.
Unfortunately as has been the case for most of this winter, 
with a low that tracks to the north and west of us, we'll be 
looking at slight chances for snow that end up transitioning to 
mostly rain as we get into the warm sector of the low. 850mb 
winds with this system range from 40-50kts and are oriented 
right up the Saint Lawrence valley so we'll have to keep an eye 
on how much ends up funneling up the valleys, similar to the 
previous wind event. However the winds at this point dont appear
to be quite as strong.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Through 12Z Friday...First area of rain is moving across the
area this morning and is essentially producing MVFR/VFR ceilings
and VFR visibilities. This first area of precipitation will exit
the area around 15z...but another area of rain will move back in
between 18z and 00z and produce MVFR conditions. The rain ends
shortly after 00z and visibilities will improve back into the
VFR category while ceilings remain in the MVFR/VFR categories.
Gusty south to southwest winds will exist through 00z before
becoming west after 00z.

Outlook 12Z Friday through Monday... 

12Z Friday through 00z Saturday...Trending VFR with cold front 
moving through the area. May see scattered -SHSN especially on 
western slopes and higher elevations with the frontal passage 
early Friday morning.

00z Saturday onward...Primarily VFR with surface high pressure.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Anticipate sharp within bank rises Thursday through Friday 
associated with rainfall amounts of 0.2 to 0.5" and higher 
elevation snowmelt due to highs in the 40s Wed/Thu, and 
overnight lows holding above freezing. While the rainfall
amounts are not significant by itself, expect ice breakup as the
water levels rise which may cause localized ice jam flooding 
Thursday/Friday. Will continue to actively watch river levels 
for the possibility of some localized flooding especially 
Friday morning.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Evenson/Hanson
HYDROLOGY...Banacos/Hanson/Deal

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