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Expires:201705062000;;187779
FPUS51 KBTV 060708
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
305 AM EDT Sat May 6 2017


VTZ006-062000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
305 AM EDT Sat May 6 2017

.TODAY...Cloudy this morning, then becoming partly sunny. A
50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the mid 60s. Southeast winds
15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers until midnight,
then mostly cloudy with showers likely after midnight. Lows in the
upper 40s. South winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. South winds 10 to
15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain showers.
Lows in the mid 30s. West winds around 10 mph. 
.MONDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain showers. Highs in
the mid 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers. Lows
in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs in
the upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs in the lower 50s. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 50s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 40s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 60. 

$$


Expires:201705061100;;196047
ASUS41 KBTV 061030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SAT MAY 06 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-061100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    51  49  92 CALM      29.46F                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    44  44 100 CALM      29.56F FOG              
MORRISVILLE    LGT RAIN  45  45 100 CALM      29.55F FOG              
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     47  46  97 MISG      29.53F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   DRIZZLE   48  47  97 SW3       29.55F                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    50  48  93 CALM      29.46R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    51  48  89 S12G17    29.48F                  
SPRINGFIELD    LGT RAIN  46  45  96 CALM      29.54F FOG              
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    49  49  99 CALM      29.47S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    47  46  97 CALM      29.55S                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    57  51  80 E9        29.43F                  
SUTTON*          N/A     46 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     48 N/A N/A E3          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     46 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     48 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     43 N/A N/A SE30G49     N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     48  46  93 SW5         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     50  48  93 S9          N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     50  48  93 NW1         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;188606
FXUS61 KBTV 060725
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
325 AM EDT Sat May 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface low pressure will track northward across western New 
York this morning, and into southeastern Ontario and
southwestern Quebec by late this afternoon. Will see passing
shower activity at times today, with a slight chance for 
thunderstorms across portions of northern New York. Will also 
see periods of partly to mostly sunny conditions, along with 
gusty south winds, resulting in high temperatures reaching the 
mid 60s to near 70 in many valley locations. A large upper level
low will settle across the region Sunday and through the middle
of next week. This system will bring prolonged mostly cloudy 
and cool conditions, with temperatures generally below normal 
for early May. Periodic rain showers are also expected, but 
rainfall is not expected to be heavy.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 314 AM EDT Saturday...North Country will emerge in cyclone
warm sector today as sfc low tracks nwd across w-central NY this
morning, and into the Ottawa Valley by 21Z or so. Deep-layer
southerly flow will be in place, and dry slot aloft will result
in periods of partly to mostly sunny conditions developing later
this morning thru the afternoon hrs. Gradient flow will be
moderately strong...it appears south winds of 15-25 mph with
gusts 30-35 mph will be possible with period of best PBL mixing
and insolational heating this afternoon. Today will also be our
warmest day of the next several, as 850mb temps of +8 to +9C 
will be in place. Have indicated high temps mainly 65-70F. 

BTV-4km WRF and NAM12/NAM-3km nest all develop modest 
convective instability across nrn NY, and trailing sfc trough 
south of passing sfc low may provide sufficient low-level 
convergence for shower and isold tstm activity across mainly St.
Lawrence and Franklin Counties. Have included a slight chance 
of thunderstorms in this region, mainly 18-23Z. Activity is not 
expected to become severe with SBCAPE generally 500 j/kg or less
owing to modest mid-level lapse rates. Likewise, have placed
highest PoPs (70-90%) across far wrn portions of the CWA late
this afternoon, with generally 20-40% PoPs from the Champlain
Valley ewd. 

Tonight into Sunday, will begin to see low pressure system
become vertically stacked across sern Ontario and swrn Quebec,
with increasing low-level CAA on wly flow across nrn NY, and
eventually across VT by Sunday afternoon. Overall pattern should
result in increasing clouds late tonight and a generally
overcast day on Sunday. Will see scattered light rain shower
activity, but generally not particularly organized with overall
QPF expected <0.25". Overnight lows generally in the low-mid 40s
across nrn NY, where low-level CAA arrives first. Lows generally
45-50F across VT tonight. On Sunday, cloudy and cool with highs
in the mid-upr 50s across VT, and only in the mid-upr 40s across
the Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley. SW-W winds of 10-20 mph
will generally develop across the region on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM EDT Saturday...The unsettled weather will continue
through the mid week as the persistent upper level low 
continues to pivot around the North Country. The downside is 
that a cold air mass will move in producing well below normal 
air temperatures. This will result in the higher terrain above 
2500ft likely seeing snow as we see scattered showers 
throughout Sunday night into Monday. Expect anywhere from a 
dusting to a couple inches on any of the >3500 ft mountains. The
boundary layer temps should be warm enough that in the valley 
floors we just see cold rain.

With the cold air moving in aloft expect chilly nights with 
temps falling into the 30s in the valleys with upper 20s likely 
in northern Adirondacks and across the spine of the Greens. The
cold air sticks around Monday as progged 925mb temps will be 
between -1 to +2C meaning highs will only warm to the mid 40s 
representing a 15-20 degree cold departure from the normal highs
for early May.

It's a lather rinse repeat forecast for Tuesday as scattered 
cold rain showers persist with snow mixing in the higher terrain
and temps in the 30s overnight and upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 AM EDT Saturday...We may see the first break in the 
unsettled pattern briefly as dry air works into the region
Wednesday behind the departing colder air from early week. 
However we'll still be looking at mostly cloudy skies with 
slightly below normal max temps and gradually warming overnight 
lows. None of the days in the extended appear to be washouts but
we'll have the chance for showers nearly every day. The 
forecast totals from Monday through the end of the week only 
amount to about a quarter to a half an inch so significant
impacts are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Dealing with a wide range of aviation wx
conditions across the North Country this morning. Low-level
moisture advection on S-SE flow is generally resulting in
ceilings lowering into the MVFR range, with localized IFR
conditions at MSS/MPV due to lower stratus and FG at MPV. HIR
TRRN generally OBSCD thru 12-13Z. There are stronger southerly
winds just off the surface, resulting in LLWS potential 09-15Z
this morning, especially at RUT/MPV/SLK. Should see lower 
clouds dissipating mid-late this morning with a return to VFR 
conditions areawide along with partial clearing, and with south
winds 10-15kts and gusts 20-25kts this afternoon. Will see 
passing shower activity, with most frequent shower activity at 
SLK/MSS. There is a slight chance of a thunderstorm at KMSS/KSLK
this afternoon as well. Conditions trend back to overcast 
tonight with scattered showers persisting. 

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR/MVFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A lake wind advisory is in effect for this afternoon, and will
likely continue through the first half of tonight. Southerly 
gradient flow will gradually increase as low pressure moves
northward across western New York into the Ottawa Valley today. 
South winds will reach 20 to 30 knots by early this afternoon
and continue in that range until around midnight. Waves 
initially around 1 foot this morning, will build to 2 to 4 feet,
likely highest across the northern portion of the broad lake. 

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...Banacos
MARINE...TEAM BTV

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