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Expires:201706052000;;745368 FPUS51 KBTV 050743 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York National Weather Service Burlington VT 338 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 VTZ006-052000- Lamoille- Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe 339 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 .TODAY...Cloudy with a chance of showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. .TONIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms until midnight, then showers likely after midnight. Lows in the upper 40s. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent. .TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the mid 50s. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s. South winds around 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Light and variable winds. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. .THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 70. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. .FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the lower 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. .SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 40 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 50s. .SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s. $$ Expires:201706051100;;753046 ASUS41 KBTV 051030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT MON JUN 05 2017 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-051100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON CLOUDY 57 53 86 SE7 29.78S MONTPELIER CLOUDY 52 52 100 E3 29.86R MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 52 50 93 VRB5 29.83F ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 53 52 96 MISG 29.82S LYNDONVILLE* RAIN 50 49 98 CALM 29.85S VSB 1/4 MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 57 51 80 SE8 29.77F RUTLAND* CLOUDY 54 52 93 SE12 29.80S SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 54 52 93 CALM 29.83R HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 55 51 86 E3 29.79S NEWPORT* CLOUDY 50 50 99 CALM 29.84S BENNINGTON CLOUDY 55 52 89 CALM 29.78R SUTTON* N/A 50 N/A N/A MISG N/A ISLAND POND* N/A 48 N/A N/A CALM N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 48 N/A N/A MISG N/A UNION VILLAGE* N/A 54 N/A N/A MISG N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 45 N/A N/A E26 N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 57 52 82 E2 N/A COLCHESTER RF* N/A 55 54 94 S1 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 55 54 94 S1 N/A $$ Expires:No;;748145 FXUS61 KBTV 050833 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 433 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure dropping out of southern Ontario will bring unsettled conditions to the North Country through Tuesday. Scattered showers will develop across northern New York this afternoon, and become widespread across the remainder of the forecast area tonight and Tuesday. Drier weather is expected for Wednesday and Thursday with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 433 AM EDT Monday...Overall little change from the previous forecast thinking as the synoptic pattern for the next 36 hours hasn't changed. Basic idea is that upper level low pressure currently over southern Ontario drops into the eastern Great Lakes today, while surface low pressure develops off the Delmarva Peninsula tonight and tracks northeast to just outside the benchmark by 12Z Tuesday. This morning starts out mainly dry with a few scattered showers around, but by this afternoon increasing southeasterly surface flow from the coastal low will advect rich Atlantic moisture into the region while increasing southwesterly flow and shortwave energy aloft ejecting from the upper low will provide the lift necessary for showers to develop. Showers develop first across northern New York this afternoon, then become fairly widespread through the night and into Tuesday as the coastal low exits east and the upper low becomes nearly stationary over the Buffalo area. As for the finer details of the forecast, well, that's a bit more complicated with the forecast challenges two-fold. First, there remains the potential for pockets of heavy convective rain across northern New York this afternoon as an area of elevated instability shifts from western New York northeast into the North Country. Already seeing some thunderstorms develop over/near Lake Ontario currently, so maintained the previous forecast of slight chance of thunderstorms. Secondly, increasing east/southeasterly flow across Vermont will provide the potential for gusty to locally strong downslope winds across the western slopes of the Greens. Locally run 2km and 4km WRF models show 35-45kt 925mb southeasterly winds developing late this afternoon across the northern Greens, shifting the focus to the southern Greens this evening. The limiting factor in the strongest winds occurring at the surface will be the mixing as rain will be moving in helping to stabilize the low levels, but think gusts in the 30-40 mph are likely. Overall winds of this magnitude are typically not damaging, but with extremely wet soils from persistent rains over the past month, I can see the potential for a few trees to come down. Temps through the period will remain below normal for highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s today, and mainly 50s Tuesday, with lows tonight in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Monday...Widespread shower activity then continues into Tuesday night, especially across central and southern counties. Upper low will begin to pivot bodily southward during this period so northern counties will begin to trend drier over time. Additional QPF of a quarter to half inch will be possible south, with lighter amounts as one progresses northward. Low temperatures close to blended guidance, mainly in the 40s under overcast skies. By Wednesday broad-scale drying begins in earnest as upper low continues to sink steadily southward while weakening. With loss of deformational processes and a broad-scale weakening of upper PV support the idea of showers waning and shifting south appears reasonable with mainly dry weather expected in most areas by later in the day. Skies will also trend partly cloudy through the day with some progs showing nearly full sunshine along the international border by later in the day as deep-layer ridging builds south from southern Canada. Temperatures could be a bit tricky depending on how much afternoon sun is realized. The overall idea will be for slightly milder weather north (upper 60s to lower 70s) where a longer duration of partial sunshine is expected, and slightly cooler south (lower to mid 60s) where clouds will hang on a bit longer. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Monday...By Thursday into Thursday night airmass modifies such that temperatures should climb back to seasonal norms for most spots. A narrow instability axis may develop by afternoon into early evening so the idea of widely scattered showers and a possible stray thunderstorm appears reasonable at this point. Most areas should remain dry however. Looking ahead into Friday and Saturday chances of showers remain in the forecast as additional energy in the form of a shortwave trough swings into the region. Solid chance pops will be offered during this period, especially during the daylight hours when some modest surface instability fosters better convective potential. A few stronger storms may develop on Saturday when combination of shear, instability and passage of trough occurs, but at this point it the threat of widespread severe weather looks low. By Sunday into Monday the latest signals continue to suggest that we may be in store for another quick shot of heat from Mother Nature as a building meridional upper ridge develops across the eastern third of the nation. Given broad consensus on this scenario have raised max temperatures somewhat above blended guidance conservatively showing upper 70s/lower 80s on Sunday and solid 80s on Monday. If one were to believe this morning's GFS 925 mb thermal progs for Monday literal, highs in the 90s would not be unreasonable. Time will tell. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 06Z Tuesday...Current VFR cigs will generally trend to MVFR through the night and remain MVFR through the remainder of the period with exceptions being KBTV/KRUT where southeasterly flow will keep cigs mainly VFR, and KMSS where northeasterly flow will bring cigs briefly to IFR this afternoon. Scattered showers develop across northern New York this afternoon, spreading eastward into Vermont towards sunset reducing vsby to 5SM. Winds mainly not an issue except at KRUT where gusts 15-20kts are likely mid-morning to early afternoon, increasing to 25-30kts from late afternoon onward. Outlook... Tuesday: MVFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. && .HYDROLOGY... Several rounds of showers with localized heavy rainfall possible on Monday into Tuesday...as a slow moving storm system and associated boundary impact the North Country. Difficult to pin point exact placement of heaviest rainfall axis...but a few sharp rises on local streams and rivers are possible...which will have to be watched closely. The expected rainfall will vary greatly from 0.50 to over 2.0 with isolated values up to 3 inches in the most persistent rain bands on Monday afternoon into Tuesday. The greatest potential for heavy rain looks to be across the northern Adirondack Mountains in New York and parts of central/southern VT...especially the easterly upslope sides of the Green Mountains. Given the recent rains area rivers and streams are currently at or slightly above normal levels for this time of year...which with additional rain expected may cause a few rivers to approach bankful. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lahiff NEAR TERM...Lahiff SHORT TERM...JMG LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...Lahiff HYDROLOGY...Taber - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html