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Expires:201710032000;;287308
FPUS51 KBTV 030736
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
334 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017


VTZ006-032000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
334 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017

.TODAY...Patchy dense fog this morning. Sunny. Highs in the upper
60s. Light and variable winds. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Lows in
the mid 40s. Light and variable winds. 
.WEDNESDAY...Patchy dense fog in the morning. Partly sunny. Highs in
the mid 70s. South winds around 10 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 50s. West winds
10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 60s. West winds around 10 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 60s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in
the lower 70s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 50s. 
.COLUMBUS DAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers.
Highs in the mid 70s. 

$$


Expires:201710031100;;294389
ASUS41 KBTV 031030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE OCT 03 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-031100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLEAR     46  43  89 CALM      30.53R                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       36  36 100 S3        30.61R VSB 1/4          
MORRISVILLE    FOG       37  37 100 SW3       30.56S VSB 1/4          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     39  39 100 MISG      30.58R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FOG       38  38  99 CALM      30.59R VSB 1/2          
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      42  40  95 S5        30.55R                  
RUTLAND*       CLEAR     45  42  89 SE9       30.57R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       39  38  96 CALM      30.61R VSB 1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      44  43  99 SE3       30.52R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      39  39 100 SW7       30.56R                  
BENNINGTON     CLEAR     40  38  93 CALM      30.57R                  
SUTTON*          N/A     45 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     30 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     36 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     37 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     48 N/A N/A S23         N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     55  50  82 S10G16      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     55  54  94 SW15        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     50  48  93 S7          N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;289188
FXUS61 KBTV 030814
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
414 AM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain across the area into Wednesday 
afternoon with seasonably warm and dry weather expected. A cold 
front will cross the area Wednesday night along with a good 
chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Behind the 
front a return to mainly dry weather is expected on Thursday 
into Friday before more showers arrive for next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 332 AM EDT Tuesday...More of the same on tap for today 
into tonight as strong high pressure remains across the 
northeast with fair and dry weather expected. Other than some 
occasional wispy high clouds mainly sunny/clear skies should be 
the rule. Mid level heights continue to slowly rise into 
tonight, and as we enter the back side of the surface high 
center southerly winds will begin to increase across the area. 
This will allow temperatures to warm into the upper 60s to mid 
70s by this afternoon with modestly gusty flow in the broader 
valleys into the 15 to 20 mph range. Lows tonight a little 
tricky as broader valleys and higher elevations will remain 
somewhat mixed while smaller valleys and hollows across the 
Adirondacks and eastern VT will likely decouple once again 
leading to cooler values. Stuck close to a blended bias- 
corrected solution here showing readings in the lower to mid 40s
in the cool spots, and upper 40s to mid 50s in the broader 
valleys and elevated terrain. Showed some patchy late night 
mist/fog once again across favored areas in eastern VT.

The day on Wednesday starts out much the same as today with mainly 
sunny skies outside the lingering early morning fog across eastern 
VT valleys. This will allow temperatures to warm nicely as 925-850 
mb thermal profiles continue to increase into the 17-19C range by 
early afternoon, supporting highs in the 70s to locally near 80 in 
the warmest locales. By later in the afternoon our well advertised 
cold front will be approaching from the northwest along with 
increasing clouds and the threat of showers across northwestern 
counties toward early evening. Quite robust west to southwesterly 
jet energy in the mid to upper levels will advect into the area 
ahead of the boundary allowing mid-level lapse rates to steepen 
somewhat as PWATS increase above 1.5 inches. This will support at 
least a nominal threat of a few thunderstorms in these areas later 
in the day and I'll continue with this idea accordingly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 415 AM EDT Tuesday...A cold front moves through the 
region Wed night with precipitable waters rising to 1.50" and 
elevated CAPE values 250-500 J/kg mainly through midnight. 
Keeping a slight chance of thunder in the forecast with locally 
heavy downpours as indicated in simulated reflectivity and cold 
tops in the sim satellite from some of the higher resolution 
convective allowing models. QPF should mainly be around 0.50" 
more to the north and less to the south, but can't rule out a 
spot higher amount if the thunder materializes. Things wind down
overnight as instability and front now progged to move quickly 
southeast with strong wind field aloft as 850-500mb winds 
average over 50 kt.

The front reaches southern VT by Thu and slows as it moves 
through southern New England and should gradually drag the 
clouds and precipitation out of our area. Expecting clearing to 
take place over south central VT in the morning with cu/stratocu
development most areas for the balance of the day for partly 
sunny skies. 925mb temps cool to around 13 deg C so expecting 
highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. 

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Tuesday... A rather active pattern is shaping 
up for the long term with several chances of precipitation from 
fast moving shortwaves in zonal flow. Models timing and 
placement has come better in line today with reasonable 
agreement so forecast confidence is about average. It's still 
early but we are looking at another warming trend Sunday into 
Monday, which if it continues, could spell some more record high
temperatures Sunday into Monday.

The front which moves through Wed night looks like it will 
stall out somewhere over or just south of NY/New England on 
Friday. The weather should continue to be mainly dry but still 
the ECMWF and it's statistical guidance keeps a low chances of 
showers Friday, mainly in the morning. With some clouds around 
and 925 temps cooling to 11 C it will be slightly cooler but 
seasonable with highs in the 60s.

Models in fair agreement through the weekend with warm advection
and a chance of showers on Saturday as a warm front approaches
followed by a weak cold front Saturday night. Sunday looks to be
mostly dry and warmer as a drier SW flow and ridging aloft develops.
925mb temps rise up to 19-20C both Sunday and Monday. The 
record high is only 77 on Sunday and 80 on Monday so those could
fall if we stay dry. However it looks like there will also be 
some moisture advection as the flow aloft becomes more southerly
by Monday which could result in more clouds and cooler temps 
but we'll see. Expecting highs in the upper 70s both Sun and Mon
at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR/SKC through the period. Only
exception will be patchy IFR/LIFR in the 08-12Z time frame at
KMPV due to BR/FG. Some brief MVFR/BR possible at KMSS in the
08-11Z time frame as well. After 12Z conditions improve to VFR 
at all terminals under light to modest south/southwesterly flow 
from 5 to 12 kts. Some modest channeling effects expected at 
KBTV with gusts to near 20 kts expected during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA...Patchy FG.
Wednesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA...Slight Chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 332 AM EDT Tuesday...Southerly winds will continue to 
increase across the lake today into tonight, especially on the 
broad lake and in bays/inlets with open southerly exposures. 
Confidence is high that winds should remain steady-state in the 
15-20 knot range today and 15-25 knot range tonight into 
Wednesday as significant wave heights build into the 1-3/2-4 
foot range with a light to moderate chop. These conditions may 
prove hazardous to smaller craft and a Lake Wind Advisory may be
needed later today or tonight.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Sisson
AVIATION...JMG
MARINE...JMG

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