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Expires:201711152100;;438424
FPUS51 KBTV 151109
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
607 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017


VTZ006-152100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
607 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

.TODAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. Light and variable
winds, becoming south around 10 mph this afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy until midnight, then cloudy with a chance
of rain showers or a slight chance of snow showers after midnight.
Lows in the lower 30s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Snow showers likely in the morning. Rain showers likely.
Snow accumulation a dusting to 1 inch possible. Highs around 40.
South winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the morning. Chance
of precipitation 70 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Rain or snow showers likely. Light snow
accumulation possible. Lows in the mid 20s. West winds 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 30. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to
30 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. 
.SATURDAY...Rain likely or a chance of snow. Little or no snow
accumulation. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Rain or snow. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of
precipitation 80 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Snow showers or a chance of rain showers. Highs in the
upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows around 20. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the upper 20s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 30s. 

$$


Expires:201711151200;;439380
ASUS41 KBTV 151130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST WED NOV 15 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-151200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    32  28  85 CALM      30.31S                  
MONTPELIER     FOG       26  26 100 CALM      30.31S VSB<1/4          
MORRISVILLE    CLEAR     22  22 100 NE3       30.31S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     25  25 100 MISG      30.30R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      23  23  98 CALM      30.30S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    31  30  96 CALM      30.30S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    30  29  96 CALM      30.30R FOG              
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    30  29  96 CALM      30.31F                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      28  26  95 CALM      30.31S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      21  21  97 SW3       30.30F                  
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    31  29  92 CALM      30.29S FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     16 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     19 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     32 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     21 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     37  32  81 S8          N/A  WCI  31          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     37  32  81 SE8         N/A  WCI  31          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     36  32  87 SE6         N/A  WCI  31          

$$


Expires:No;;434205
FXUS61 KBTV 150922
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
422 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves east of the region today which allows for
southerly winds to develop. This combined with some sunshine
will allow for temperatures to climb into the upper 30s to
middle 40s. Dry weather is expected today but an upper level
trough of low pressure will gradually move into the region late
tonight and especially on Thursday. Some rain and snow is
expected late tonight before changing over to rain on Thursday.
Colder air moves back in Thursday night and the rain will change
back to snow...but only minor accumulations are possible over
the higher terrain. Dry weather returns for Friday before
another trough of low pressure moves in for the weekend and
brings more rain and snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 344 AM EST Wednesday...Satellite trends continue to show
the erosion of clouds across the area early this morning...mainly
over the Saint Lawrence Valley of New York and northeast 
Vermont. Unfortunately its still going to take awhile to get the
remainder of the area cleared out and it looks like later this 
morning it should as southerly flow develops along with 
sufficient mixing. Highs today should reach the upper 30s to 
middle 40s with no precipitation expected.

Upper trough moving across the Upper Midwest this morning will
eventually move into the region late tonight and especially on
Thursday. Feel precipitation will not get into the area until
after midnight tonight...but clouds and southerly flow will keep
temperatures up in the larger valleys to support precipitation
in the form of rain with snow in the mountains. Eventually
warmer air moves in on Thursday at all levels to change most of
the area over to rain showers as highs reach into the upper 30s
to middle 40s. Downslope wind component to the flow pattern
suggests Champlain Valley will see the least amount of
precipitation tonight into Thursday...generally under a tenth of
an inch...and a tenth to a quarter inch over the remainder of
the area. In terms of snow the mountains will see a dusting to 2
inches tonight into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 AM EST Wednesday...The short term will feature 
developing northwesterly low-level upslope flow of 25 to 30 
knots as the main forcing for lift transitions from the 
thermodynamics with the upper trof to orographic. Cold air 
advection will commence as 925mb temps around 0C fall to -12C by
Fri morn so any rain showers will change to snow showers as 
freezing levels lower from around 3000 ft to the surface area 
wide by around 06z. Upslope forcing will peak out 06-09z with 
Froude numbers just below 1 suggesting precip/snowfall mainly at
and just west of the summits with little in the valleys. Snow 
showers will gradually dry up by mid morning with moisture 
decreasing and rising heights aloft. Not expecting a whole lot 
of QPF Thursday night into Friday, mainly 0.10 or less to as 
much as 0.40 at some of the summits. Could be a inch or less of 
snow on the higher terrain mainly on the western slopes but 
increasing as you go up in elevation 4 or 5 inches at the 
summits above 3000 ft. Low temps by Friday morning will be in 
the 20s. Highs on Friday mainly in the upper 20s to lower 30s as
skies clear out. Clouds will be on the increase again Friday 
night as a ridge of high pressure moves in but warm advection 
starts aloft. Lows will be in the mid teens to lower 20s. In 
addition, winds will become increasing brisk as they shift from
the south to west northwest Thursday night post cold frontal 
passage at 20-30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 420 AM EST Wednesday...The long term feature of 
interest will be the development of a closed low in 
southeastern Canada over the weekend with our area under its 
influence with lots of clouds, rain and snow showers and cooling
temperatures.

Another more vigorous system will approach Saturday as a rather
strong low pressure system moving up through the Great Lakes 
then north and west of region Saturday night into Sunday. It 
still looks like Sat will be the wettest of the week with warm 
advection front and warm air advection followed by a sharp 
cold/occluded front Sat night. Timing has slowed a bit from 
yesterday's forecast as precip looks to reach BTV midday 
Saturday. Precip type could still start as a mix or change from
snow to rain Sat followed by mainly rain showers by Sat eve. 
Saturday could be pretty windy with some gusty winds possible 
both ahead and behind the cold front with cold advection on 
Sunday. Any rain showers will be changing to snow showers behind
the cold front Saturday night with Lake Ontario and upslope 
snow showers continuing Sunday. Monday into Tuesday now look 
mainly dry as the trof lifts out quickly with warm advection on 
the back side with high pressure over the Southeast US. Models 
in OK agreement through the weekend but timing differences creep
into the forecast early next week for lower confidence. 
Temperatures will be on the cool side of average with highs 
mainly in the lower 30s to lower 40s with lows in 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...VFR/MVFR ceilings will persist through
about 14z before clouds become scattered for the remainder of
the period. Will see some thicker mid level clouds moving in
after 00z but still looking at VFR ceilings. No precipitation is
expected through the period. Winds will be light...but become
more south and southeast after 15z and will increasing in speeds
with gusts in the 10 to 20 knot range after 00z.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance SHSN.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely
SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Evenson
NEAR TERM...Evenson
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Sisson
AVIATION...Evenson

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