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Expires:201711242100;;886877
FPUS51 KBTV 241131
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
628 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017


VTZ006-242100-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
628 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

.TODAY...Cloudy this morning, then becoming partly sunny. Highs in
the lower 40s. Light and variable winds, becoming south around
10 mph this afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 20s. South winds around
10 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then becoming cloudy.
Scattered snow showers in the morning. Scattered rain showers. Highs
in the lower 40s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation
50 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a chance of snow or rain showers. Lows
in the upper 20s. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation
50 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs around 30. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow
showers. Lows in the lower 20s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the upper 20s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 15 to 20. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 40s. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow
showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Highs around 40. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 20s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. 

$$


Expires:201711241200;;886735
ASUS41 KBTV 241130
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EST FRI NOV 24 2017

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-241200-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     CLOUDY    36  26  67 S12       29.91S WCI  28          
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    34  27  75 VRB3      29.91S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    34  26  72 SW6       29.90R WCI  29          
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     32  24  72 MISG      29.89S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    29  22  76 CALM      29.90R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    34  25  69 CALM      29.94R                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    34  24  67 CALM      29.94S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    31  25  78 CALM      29.96S                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    34  28  79 S3        29.90S                  
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    31  27  83 S5        29.89R WCI  26          
BENNINGTON     CLOUDY    28  24  85 CALM      29.96S                  
SUTTON*          N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
ISLAND POND*     N/A     28 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     27 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     28 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     39  32  75 S15         N/A  WCI  31          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     39  32  75 S14         N/A  WCI  31          
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     37  32  81 S14         N/A  WCI  29          

$$


Expires:No;;886921
FXUS61 KBTV 241132
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
632 AM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the mid-Atlantic states this morning will briefly 
build northward into the Northeast today allowing skies to clear and 
temperatures to rise into the low to mid 40s on increasing southerly 
flow. A low pressure system passing to our north on Saturday will 
bring a trailing cold front across the North Country accompanied by 
scattered rain and snow showers through Saturday night. Cloudy and 
dry conditions are expected for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 257 AM EST Friday...A quiet end to the work week is 
expected today as high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states 
builds northward into the Northeast eventually scouring out low 
clouds across the region this morning to partly/mostly sunny 
skies this afternoon. Outside of a few scattered snow showers 
and/or flurries across northern areas early this morning, it'll 
be a dry, mild and increasingly windy day as a strengthening 
pressure gradient between the high and an approaching low to our
west will develop southerly winds of 10-20 mph, with a few 
gusts to 30 mph in vicinity of Lake Champlain. Highs will touch 
40 across the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom, while warming 
into the mid-40s elsewhere.

Dry conditions continue through tonight as well as the North 
Country will be entrenched in a warm sector with a warm front to
our north and a cold front to our west associated with low 
pressure passing well north of the border. South winds will 
remain brisk as the pressure gradient remains tight between the 
departing high and approaching low. This will keep overnight 
mins on the mild side in the mid/upper 30s across the deeper 
valleys, while the mid-slopes of the Adirondacks and eastern 
Vermont should drop off into the upper 20s to around 30.

Aforementioned cold front approaches Saturday but really 
doesn't swing through the forecast area until after sunset with 
a little pre- frontal trough and associated deep layer moisture 
producing some scattered showers through the day, mainly in the 
form of rain but a few snow showers are possible across the 
higher elevations during the morning hours. Overall QPF is very 
light, generally less than a tenth of an inch, so expect little 
to no snow accumulation and minor impacts to outdoor activities.
Temps remain mild through the day, warming a couple degrees 
from Friday's maxes in the low/mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 326 AM EST Friday...00Z guidance all still indicating a 
shortwave moving across the region Saturday night, but have 
backed off a bit on its intensity. Still looking at a period 
where scattered snow showers will increase in coverage, 
especially across the higher terrain of northern NY and northern
Vermont. The primary tweak to the going forecast is to decrease
the PoPs a few hours quicker on Sunday. Could still have a few 
high terrain snow showers Sunday morning, but think by noon 
those will be all gone. Still only expect minor accumulations, 
perhaps 1-2" at the higher elevations, and a dusting at low 
elevations. Once the snow showers across the north diminish, it 
will be a dry but rather cloudy afternoon with northwest winds 
occasionally gusting to 20 mph. Highs will be slightly below 
normal, generally low-mid 30s. 

Sunday night we should see another round of scattered snow showers 
or periods of light snow across the region as a weak Alberta Clipper 
and it's associated upper level trough zips by just to our north. 
This system will also not have a lot of moisture to work with, 
basically what it can tap from the Great Lakes. So it looks like 
another situation where we have 1-2" at higher elevations, with a 
dusting at lower elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 326 AM EST Friday...00Z guidance still pointing at a rather 
progressive synoptic pattern next week. We'll start off with a 
brief shot of cooler northwest flow for Monday, but quickly 
transition to a westerly flow pattern that turns more southwest 
by mid/late week. So it looks like from Tuesday onward, 
temperatures will be above normal. 00Z GFS and ECMWF are in 
decent agreement with the overall pattern. The main "weather" 
features will be a weak front late Tuesday/early Wednesday, and 
then the next low pressure approaching late Thursday. A few 
notes on each day follow...

Monday: Looks to be the coldest day of the week. Perhaps a few 
morning mountain snow showers, but some prospects for some sun by 
afternoon.  925mb temperatures drop to -8 to -10C, so expecting 
highs only in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with mid 30s in southern 
valley locations. 

Tuesday:  Looks dry. Flow turns southwest ahead of an approaching 
front, with warmer air advecting in. 925mb temperatures should warm 
to about +5C by late in the day. This will support temperatures well 
into the 40s for most areas - perhaps a few places nearing 50F. 
Reasonably tight pressure gradient will support 40-50kts of wind 
around 850mb. So it will likely be a bit breezy (20-30 mph gusts) 
especially in the St Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. Did try to 
enhance the winds some in the gridded forecast as base model data 
that far in the future typically underestimates wind speeds. 
Weakening front comes through Tuesday night. Temperatures should be 
warm enough aloft and in the boundary layer that we are looking at 
light rain as the dominant precipitation type. 

Wednesday: 00z guidance is a little faster with previous model runs 
and suggests that it will be mostly dry for the day. However, given 
uncertainty in timing, maintained some PoPs in the event the front 
comes through during the morning. Temperature profiles would suggest 
rain showers ending as a little bit of higher elevation snow 
showers. Not a very robust front, so we aren't talking about a lot 
of rain or snow.  Also not a lot of cold air behind the front, so 
temperatures will still be above normal with highs in the lower
40s.

Thursday: Uncertainty in the forecast increases as GFS and ECMWF 
have more significant timing differences. Both indicate high 
pressure moves off the coast with flow turning southwest ahead of 
the next low pressure system. However GFS is faster with bringing in 
moisture and precipitation by later in the day. ECMWF is about 12 
hours slower. Do have some 15-25% PoPs in for Thursday and at 
the very least increasing clouds. In any event, highs will again
be slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Widespread OVC VFR ceilings with a few
areas of MVFR will lift from south to north and scatter out to 
FEW200/SKC this afternoon and remain VFR through the rest of 
the period.

Winds will be mainly south/southeast at 6-10kts from KPBG 
eastward with some gusts this afternoon and evening up to 20kts
at KBTV. Westward at KSLK and KMSS southwesterlies will prevail
at 08-12kts with gusts to 20kts and likely some LLWS and
turbulence after 23Z as a low level jet streaks in. Approaches
over Lake Champlain will also be quite bumpy this afternoon and
overnight with low level winds in excess of 30kts likely over
the open waters.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Scattered SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 257 AM EST Friday...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY is in effect for
increasingly strong winds over the open waters of Lake 
Champlain this afternoon through Saturday morning. South winds 
of 10 to 20 knots over the lake this morning will increase 
markedly this afternoon and especially overnight, where winds 
will likely top 30 knots with some gusts to 40 knots possible. 
This will produce very hazardous conditions with wave heights 
building to peak heights of 5 to 7 feet for a period tonight. 
Behind a cold front passage, winds will shift to the west and 
decrease Saturday afternoon.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Nash
LONG TERM...Nash
AVIATION...Lahiff
MARINE...Lahiff

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