Expires:201801312100;;811047 FPUS51 KBTV 311142 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York National Weather Service Burlington VT 640 AM EST Wed Jan 31 2018 VTZ006-312100- Lamoille- Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe 640 AM EST Wed Jan 31 2018 .TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow this afternoon. Highs around 20. Northwest winds around 10 mph, becoming south this afternoon. Chance of snow 50 percent. .TONIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of light snow until midnight. Lows around 20. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 50 percent. .THURSDAY...Cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers in the morning, then a chance of rain or snow showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely with possible snow squalls likely. Snow may be heavy at times. Light snow accumulation possible. Lows around 15. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs around 18. Temperature falling to around 6 above in the afternoon. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Much colder with lows 5 below to zero. .SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs 15 to 20. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Snow showers likely. Lows around 10 above. Chance of snow 60 percent. .SUNDAY...Snow showers likely. Highs in the mid 20s. Chance of snow 60 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Lows zero to 5 above zero. .MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Highs around 20. .MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. Lows around 5 above. .TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 20s. $$ Expires:201801311200;;810523 ASUS41 KBTV 311130 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EST WED JAN 31 2018 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-311200- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON FAIR 10 1 67 NE6 30.21R WCI 0 MONTPELIER CLOUDY 8 3 80 NW6 30.12R WCI -2 MORRISVILLE CLOUDY 8 1 73 N7 30.14R WCI -3 ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 11 5 77 MISG 30.10R LYNDONVILLE* FLURRIES 7 2 80 CALM 30.10R MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 8 4 84 CALM 30.19R RUTLAND* FAIR 7 2 80 CALM 30.15R SPRINGFIELD FAIR 12 3 67 VRB5 30.15R WCI 4 HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 6 -1 75 NW3 30.24R NEWPORT* LGT SNOW 7 4 86 CALM 30.12R BENNINGTON FAIR 10 2 69 SW3 30.16R SUTTON* N/A 3 N/A N/A MISG N/A ISLAND POND* N/A 5 N/A N/A NW1 N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 5 N/A N/A MISG N/A UNION VILLAGE* N/A 5 N/A N/A MISG N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 0 N/A N/A W12G40 N/A WCI -18 _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 9 3 78 N6 N/A WCI -1 COLCHESTER RF* N/A 14 5 67 NW12 N/A WCI 0 $$ Expires:No;;805481 FXUS61 KBTV 310913 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 413 AM EST Wed Jan 31 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A changeable weather pattern is in store for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. High pressure will be in control overnight and Wednesday morning. Low pressure will affect the region Wednesday night into Thursday with widespread light snow that will mix with light rain on Thursday as southerly winds bring in warmer air. A cold front will bring another round of cold weather to end the week. Another fast moving storm system will bring the potential for additional snow this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 329 AM EST Wednesday...This morning will start out dry with surface high pressure over the region, and sliding east by about noon. A low pressure centered over Western Ontario will slide Eastward. This brings breezy southerly winds to our area with the increased pressure gradient. It will be windiest in the Champlain valley with the channeling out of the south. Warm air advection associated with aforementioned high exiting and low approaching will cause some light snow to develop during the afternoon from west to east across the North country. There is not a lot of moisture associated with this system and strongest energy will remain well north of the region, but still feel pretty confident that we will have some light snow. There's also a bit of shortwave energy which will ride along international border increasing our chances for some light snow. The highest pops are across our Northern zones for this reason. Strong winds in the Champlain valley will aid to shadow that area. Generally a half an inch to two inches of snow is expected this afternoon and overnight with the highest totals in the Saint Lawrence Valley. Weak cold front associated with aforementioned low will finally edge into our area Thursday afternoon, therefore still a chance for some rain and snow showers with this features approach and eventual passage overnight. Upper level trough will also be approaching the north country by late in the day Thursday. Thursday will probably be the warmest day of the whole week with temperatures warming into the mid to upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 409 AM EST Wednesday...Thursday night a strong arctic front will be dropping south through the North Country as an upper level trough digs into the eastern CONUS. The main concerns with the front will be twofold. First the potential for a flash freeze as temps drop rapidly and second, the potential for snow squalls to develop as latest runs of the hires CAM models continue to show non zero instability values along with low level fgen and steep lapse rates. The snow squall parameter is also picking up on the potential and while I'm not confident we'll see a squall I agree with previous forecaster on mentioning of snow squalls in the forecast grids. Behind the front it's just cold. High pressure and cold air advection return and we see well below normal temps with lows in the single digits to mid teens Thursday night and highs only in the teens Friday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 409 AM EST Wednesday...Heading into the weekend, surface high pressure builds in behind the arctic front for Friday night and Saturday. Temps will run well below seasonal normals under dry conditions, with lows in the single digits above and below zero, and highs in the teens to low 20s. A clipper system tracks across the Great Lakes through the Saint Lawrence valley on Saturday evening and will bring between 1-4 inches of snow which is sorely needed across our higher terrain. Feels like its been too long without some decent snow across the North Country. Behind the clipper more cold air moves in and we'll see close to or just below normal days with highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits. Coming out of the weekend we'll be under a general long wave trough with both the GFS and EC are starting to depict a coastal low forming off the Carolinas and tracking inside of the benchmark. If that track holds, it would lead to some decent snow across the North Country but that far out I dont have much confidence in track. Thus I've maintained just a general chance for snow showers through Monday and Tuesday. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...Currently light snow at MPV with MVFR conditions. Otherwise VFR across the area. Around 18Z Wednesday we will have light snows starting to push into the St Lawrence Valley. Eventually that snow will overspread the region, bringing with it MVFR/IFR conditions. Conditions will improve to VFR again after about 00z. Winds will be light out of the northwest overnight before switching to the south after 18Z and eventually gust 10-20 knots by the end of the period. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. Likely SHSN, Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Isolated SHSN. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Nash NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...Neiles - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html