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Expires:201803272000;;005381
FPUS51 KBTV 270723
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
320 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018


VTZ006-272000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
320 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018

.TODAY...Sunny this morning, then becoming partly sunny. Highs in
the upper 40s. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
this afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...Rain or snow likely. Snow accumulation a dusting to
1 inch. Lows in the lower 30s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow or sleet or a slight
chance of rain in the morning. Highs in the upper 40s. Light and
variable winds. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Light and
variable winds. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of rain showers.
Highs around 50. South winds around 10 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Rain. Lows in the upper 30s. Chance of rain
80 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Highs in
the lower 50s. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Lows in
the upper 20s. Chance of rain 40 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain
showers. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs
in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of snow or rain showers.
Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs
around 40. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 

$$


Expires:201803271100;;013379
ASUS41 KBTV 271030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-271100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      27  15  61 SE8       30.56F WCI  19          
MONTPELIER     FAIR      18  13  80 CALM      30.60F                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      14  12  92 CALM      30.59F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     19  17  92 MISG      30.59F                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      22  12  66 CALM      30.59S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      24  15  66 S5        30.56F WCI  18          
RUTLAND*       FAIR      23  13  65 SE12      30.58S WCI  12          
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      18  16  92 CALM      30.62F                  
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      23  15  72 CALM      30.56S                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      15  10  80 CALM      30.58S                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      28  12  51 CALM      30.56F                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A      9 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     14 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     19 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     23 N/A N/A SE8         N/A  WCI  14          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     30  18  59 S9          N/A  WCI  22          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     32  27  80 SW8         N/A  WCI  25          

$$


Expires:No;;007940
FXUS61 KBTV 270814
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
414 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region will weaken as it shifts northeast
today. A front will move through tonight, triggering a cold rain
that will taper off during the day Wednesday. Areas of the
northern Adirondacks and Green Mountains along with eastern
Vermont could see some wintry mix/snow out of this system
tonight that will transition to rain Wednesday morning.
Temperatures will warm to near 50 today and stay well above
normal through most of the work week before a cold front pushes
through Friday, accompanied by more precipitation and a shift to
cooler temperatures for the weekend. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 409 AM EDT Tuesday...High clouds will move in from west to 
east through the morning, thickening and lowering throughout 
the day. The general flow will become increasingly southwesterly
today as the surface high departs to the northeast and the 
upper level ridge axis moves offshore to our east. Winds will 
increase and temperatures will be seasonably warm, topping out 
in the upper 40s to around 50 in most locations. Tonight, a warm
front will push through the North Country, transporting a warm,
moist air mass with Gulf origins to the forecast area. As this 
moisture pushes into the region, Q-Vectors indicate the best 
synoptic-scale forcing for ascent will be this evening for 
northern New York and overnight for Vermont. Expecting 
precipitation to start generally around dinner time for the 
Saint Lawrence Valley/northern Adirondacks, then later this 
evening in the Champlain Valley, and overnight into eastern 
Vermont.

Precipitation type with this event is tricky in some areas,
although amounts/impacts of any mixed precipitation that does
occur are expected to be fairly small. Feel confident that the 
Saint Lawrence Vally and Champlain Valley will see predominantly
a cold rain out of this system. The northern Adirondacks/eastern
Vermont pose a more challenging forecast however as overnight 
surface temperatures are expected to drop to the upper 20s. 

For the northern Adirondacks, Bufkit soundings indicate a warm nose 
of +1 to +3 degrees C developing as warm air pumps in from the 
southwest. With plenty of dry air in place however, expecting 
some evaporational wet bulb cooling to occur, which could setup 
a freezing rain scenario if the warm nose is pronounced enough. 
However, any freezing rain that does fall in this area will 
likely be short-lived and confined to the overnight hours, so 
impacts look fairly minimal. If you are traveling during the 
overnight hours however, use some extra caution as there could 
be a little ice on the surfaces in the northern Adirondacks. 
Shortly after sunrise, expect any mixed precipitation to 
transition to a cold rain that will taper off throughout the 
day.

For the Green Mountains of Vermont and eastern Vermont, overall 
precipitation will be lighter and later to start than areas 
further west. Forecast soundings do not indicate the warm nose 
developing here that we will see over New York. Temperature 
profiles will instead be fairly isothermal below 800 mb. This 
translates to more of a rain/snow mix instead of a freezing rain
scenario. However, the best moisture will really not make it 
east of the Champlain Valley as the front will weaken 
significantly over the North Country. As such, though some 
rain/snow mix is possible for eastern Vermont, expecting very 
little in terms of accumulation. 

During the day Wednesday, any remaining mixed precipitation will 
have transferred to rain and will taper off as the day 
progresses. The remainder of Wednesday will be cloudy but still 
seasonably warm with highs once again in the upper 40s. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 317 AM EDT Tuesday...Weak high pressure in place Wednesday night 
is expected to provide dry conditions to the North Country. With
light low-level winds, and potential inversion layer near 900mb
per NAM/GFS model soundings, anticipate mostly cloudy to cloudy
conditions with trapped moisture/stratus layer. Quite a 
disparity noted in GFS-MOS (39F) vs. NAM-MOS (29F) for overnight
lows at BTV, but leaned toward the higher end of the guidance 
suite given expected cloud cover mitigating radiative cooling 
effects. Winds generally light S-SE at 5 mph or less. 

Better consensus has emerged on Thursday/Thursday with 00Z NWP model 
suite. With deep-layer SW flow in place, expect next low pressure 
system to track from ern OH at 12Z Thursday newd across wrn/nrn NY 
during the late afternoon and evening hours. Region of isentropic 
ascent/850-700mb WAA will result in developing stratiform rainfall 
late in the afternoon or evening, and into Thursday night. Low-level 
back trajectories per HYSPLIT indicate fetch from nrn Gulf of 
Mexico, contributing in PW values rising to 0.8-1.0" with low-level 
WAA surge. Combined with moderately strong QG forcing, anticipate 
widespread 0.30-0.50" rainfall totals across the North Country. 
Should see temperatures in the low-mid 50s in advance of the 
developing rainfall Thursday afternoon, with lows Thursday night 
mainly in the upr 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 317 AM EDT Tuesday...Low pressure departs quickly Friday 
morning across Maine/New Brunswick, and open shortwave trough 
aloft suggests little in the way of lingering precipitation. 
Maintained 30-40 PoPs early with slower GFS soln, but overall 
trend will be toward drier conditions. Will see a westerly wind 
shift with modest low-level CAA during the daylight hrs. 
Generally looking for highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Will 
see sfc high pressure return for Saturday with generally dry 
weather conditions and highs in the mid-upper 40s. The 00Z ECMWF
and GFS diverge thereafter, with a fast northern stream 
westerly upper flow pattern dominating. Appears a modest area of
low pressure will pass north of nrn NY/VT Saturday night or 
Sunday, resulting in a period of light rain/snow showers. The 
00Z ECMWF shows a more significant amplification of the 
700-500mb flow pattern toward Monday, with a possible frontal 
wave developing across the Central Appalachians before tracking 
across sern NY and srn New England while strengthening. This 
feature is absent from the 00Z GFS, with generally high pressure
in place to start Monday. With low predictability, carried low 
PoPs for rain/snow showers at the moment. 

See Hydro section below for details on snowmelt and river rises 
during Friday/Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will continue through 
the early overnight hours. However, conditions will deteriorate 
throughout the TAF period from west to east, with MSS/SLK/BTV 
expected to see MVFR CIGs and VSBYs by 06Z.

Satellite imagery shows the next weather system to impact the
forecast area quickly approaching from the southwest. High
clouds will reach MSS by 09Z, spreading east to the rest of the
TAF sites through the night. These clouds will increase in
coverage and lower through the TAF period. Precipitation will
start at NY TAF sites between 21Z and 02Z, BTV/RUT between 23Z
and 03Z, and MPV after 04Z. Precipitation type at
MSS/PBG/BTV/RUT should stay predominantly rain through 06Z.
SLK/MPV will see more of a rain snow mix in the overnight hours
tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance FZRA,
Slight chance RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Regional snow melt will accelerate as temperatures warm into the 50s 
mid to late week. NAEFS ensemble river forecasts suggest sharp - 
mainly within band rises - Friday into Saturday owing to runoff from 
combination of rainfall and snowmelt. NAEFS median river levels 
reach action stage (i.e., just below minor flood stage) at a 
few sites, including the Winooski at Essex Jct. (ESSV1) and the 
Otter Creek at Center Rutland (CENV1). Rainfall amts currently 
fcst around 0.40-0.50" with low pressure Thursday night, 
accompanied by valley temps reaching the upper 40s to 50s WED-
SAT. Fortunately, rivers are starting near base levels, which 
mitigates overall potential for flooding with just light to moderate
rainfall. Situation will continue to be monitored thru the end 
of the week.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RSD
NEAR TERM...RSD
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...RSD
HYDROLOGY...Banacos

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