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Expires:201804112000;;301869
FPUS51 KBTV 110805
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
401 AM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018


VTZ006-112000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
401 AM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

.TODAY...Mostly sunny this morning, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Highs in the mid 40s. Light and variable winds, becoming south
around 10 mph this afternoon. 
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain or snow showers until
midnight, then a chance of snow showers after midnight. Lows in the
upper 20s. Southwest winds around 10 mph until midnight, becoming
light and variable. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then cloudy with rain
showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s. Light and variable
winds, becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain
80 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Rain showers. Lows in the mid 30s. Southwest winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain near
100 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with scattered rain showers. Highs in the
upper 40s. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Snow or sleet or rain. Lows in the upper 20s.
Chance of precipitation 80 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Rain or sleet or snow. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of
precipitation 80 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain or freezing rain likely. Lows in the lower 30s.
Chance of precipitation 80 percent. 
.MONDAY...Rain or freezing rain likely. Highs in the upper 40s.
Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Rain or snow likely. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of
precipitation 90 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Rain or snow likely. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of
precipitation 70 percent. 

$$


Expires:201804111100;;307756
ASUS41 KBTV 111030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT WED APR 11 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-111100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      26  22  84 CALM      30.15S                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      19  18  95 CALM      30.16S                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      19  17  92 CALM      30.15R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     24  24 100 MISG      30.14R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      20  18  94 CALM      30.14S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    FAIR      26  22  85 SE5       30.14F WCI  20          
RUTLAND*       FAIR      22  20  92 SE9       30.15S WCI  12          
SPRINGFIELD    FOG       23  23 100 CALM      30.18S VSB 1/4          
HIGHGATE*      FAIR      26  25  94 S5        30.14S WCI  20          
NEWPORT*       FAIR      21  20  97 SW5       30.13R WCI  15          
BENNINGTON     FAIR      22  17  81 CALM      30.15S                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     18 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     14 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     25 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     19 N/A N/A W16         N/A  WCI   5          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     30  30 100 S5          N/A  WCI  25          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     32  30  93 S15         N/A  WCI  22          

$$


Expires:No;;304461
FXUS61 KBTV 110858
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
458 AM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds today ahead of approaching upper level
shortwave which will bring light rain and snow showers to the
North Country today. Moderating temperature trend continues
through Friday. A clipper low pressure system will bring
widespread rain on Thursday. There is more active weather in
store continuing through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 446 AM EDT Wednesday...Clear skies this morning will be
short lived with moisture overspreading the region with an upper
level trough axis approaching from the west. Temperatures will
warm today into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Upper level trough
approaches from the Eastern Great Lakes, and will tap into some
moisture and warmer air, advecting it northward through the day.
Upper level dynamics are not terribly strong with this feature,
therefore precipitation will be scattered and rather light.
Chance for showers will spread west to east across our forecast
area from this afternoon into the overnight. Highest pops are in
the Dacks, the precip will fall apart a bit as it tracks into
Vermont. Rain showers will dissipate overnight and end by
Thursday morning. On Thursday a clipper low pressure system will
approach from the Great Lakes region and pass North of our
region Thursday night. Precipitation will be more widespread
with this feature, spreading across our forecast area after 15z
Thu. Best upper level forcing will remain North of our forecast
area with strong shortwave energy North of the international
border. Temperatures on Thu will reach 50 in some spots, 40s
elsewhere.This means precipitation will mainly be in the form of
rain showers after a quick bit of snow showers at the onset
Thursday morning. Generally half an inch or less of
precipitation is expected, with some notable shadowing in the
Champlain valley. Will have some breezy south southwesterly
winds during the afternoon, especially in the deeper valleys and
high peaks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 458 AM EDT Wednesday...Clipper low passing north of the 
CWA Thursday night will continue to bring fairly widespread 
light rain to the region through the evening hours until the 
trailing cold front passes after midnight where thereafter cold 
air advection on west/northwest flow will allow for some snow to
mix in across the higher elevations before precip ends before 
dawn Friday. Summits could pick up a couple of inches, while 
nothing is expected below 2500 feet. Lows will range through the
30s. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 458 AM EDT Wednesday...All eyes continue to look to the 
weekend where a thermally complex system will impact the North 
Country with a myriad of hazards possible including mixed 
precipitation, gusty southeast winds, and sharp river rises. 
Long range guidance is coming into better agreement with each 
model run increasing forecaster confidence that we're in for an 
extended period of precipitation from Friday afternoon through 
Tuesday, but confidence remains very low as to exactly what type
of precip we see, especially Saturday through Sunday night.

Synoptically the big picture hasn't changed from the previous 
days thinking where low pressure develops in the lee of the 
Rockies over the central Plains late Thursday into Thursday 
night, while a mid/upper level ridge builds out ahead over the 
southeast CONUS and high pressure builds eastward out of the 
Canadian Prairies into Ontario. A sharp thermal boundary 
develops eastward out of the Plains low from the upper mid-west 
through the Great Lakes and across the northeast, fueled from 
the south by increasing south/southwest flow from high pressure 
anchored off the southeast coast, while the Canadian high drives
a cold northerly flow from the other side of the boundary. This
competing flow results in the boundary remaining fairly 
stationary directly over the North Country for Friday and Friday
night with showers developing from west to east through the 
night.

On Saturday, models continue to trend towards a scenario where 
high pressure to the north wins out and the aforementioned 
surface boundary shifts southward through the day with strong 
cold air advection dropping low level temps from the 30s north 
to 50s south to start the day, to the upper 20s north and mid 
30s south by midnight, and further into the 20s area-wide 
Saturday night. Aloft, a deep warm nose persists from 850-700mb 
of +1-2C supporting precipitation becoming a wintry mix of snow,
sleet and possibly freezing rain Saturday night before boundary
layer temps rise into the mid 30s to mid 40s Sunday 
transitioning ptype back to mainly rain. As the boundary layer 
cools again Sunday night, the threat for additional mixed precip
exists mainly east of the Greens as cold air remains dammed at 
the surface.

Moving into Monday the system becomes vertically stacked and 
negatively tilted across the Mississippi/Ohio Valley region and 
the mid/upper level flow increasing dramatically from the 
south/southeast with 850mb winds up towards 70 knots noted 
across the region Monday afternoon. This will finally drive the 
surface boundary northward as a warm front with temps rising 
into the upper 40s. Occluded front quickly approaches Monday 
afternoon with a deep Gulf connection surging PWATs to over 1" 
supporting the idea of moderate to locally heavy rain developing
through Monday night where rainfall combined with snow melt 
from the higher terrain will likely cause some sharp river rises
across the region. Quick glance and the GEFS MMEFS shows a few 
rivers going into minor/moderate flood so that situation will 
need to be closely monitored. In addition, ahead of the front 
some uncertainty still exists on the development and location of
a potential dry slot which could support a brief period of 
strong southeasterly winds mixing to the surface, localized 
across the western slope of the Adirondacks and Greens. Finally 
by Monday night into Tuesday the surface front moves through the
region, but with the parent low moving overhead precipitation 
looks persist, but changes to a mix of rain and snow. 

All told, several hazards to keep an eye on over the next few 
days so stay tuned to future forecasts as we iron out the finer 
details.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Clear skies along with light and 
variable winds overnight. Will have an increasing of mid and 
high level clouds as the day wears on...but any ceilings will 
remain in the VFR category. Winds will be picking up after 14z 
from the south and southwest with gusts in the 10 to 20 knot 
range...especially over northern New York. There will be some 
snow showers moving into northern New York after 20z but VFR 
conditions are still expected.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely RA, Likely SN.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely RA, Likely SN.
Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN,
Chance RA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA, Likely
SN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Neiles

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