 |
 |
Expires:201804112000;;301869 FPUS51 KBTV 110805 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York National Weather Service Burlington VT 401 AM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018 VTZ006-112000- Lamoille- Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe 401 AM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018 .TODAY...Mostly sunny this morning, then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 40s. Light and variable winds, becoming south around 10 mph this afternoon. .TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain or snow showers until midnight, then a chance of snow showers after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s. Southwest winds around 10 mph until midnight, becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. .THURSDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then cloudy with rain showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 40s. Light and variable winds, becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Rain showers. Lows in the mid 30s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. .FRIDAY...Partly sunny with scattered rain showers. Highs in the upper 40s. West winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Rain likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .SATURDAY...Rain likely. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of rain 70 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Snow or sleet or rain. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. .SUNDAY...Rain or sleet or snow. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Rain or freezing rain likely. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. .MONDAY...Rain or freezing rain likely. Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT...Rain or snow likely. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. .TUESDAY...Rain or snow likely. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. $$ Expires:201804111100;;307756 ASUS41 KBTV 111030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT WED APR 11 2018 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-111100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON FAIR 26 22 84 CALM 30.15S MONTPELIER FAIR 19 18 95 CALM 30.16S MORRISVILLE FAIR 19 17 92 CALM 30.15R ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 24 24 100 MISG 30.14R LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 20 18 94 CALM 30.14S MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 26 22 85 SE5 30.14F WCI 20 RUTLAND* FAIR 22 20 92 SE9 30.15S WCI 12 SPRINGFIELD FOG 23 23 100 CALM 30.18S VSB 1/4 HIGHGATE* FAIR 26 25 94 S5 30.14S WCI 20 NEWPORT* FAIR 21 20 97 SW5 30.13R WCI 15 BENNINGTON FAIR 22 17 81 CALM 30.15S ISLAND POND* N/A 18 N/A N/A CALM N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 14 N/A N/A MISG N/A UNION VILLAGE* N/A 25 N/A N/A MISG N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 19 N/A N/A W16 N/A WCI 5 _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 30 30 100 S5 N/A WCI 25 COLCHESTER RF* N/A 32 30 93 S15 N/A WCI 22 $$ Expires:No;;304461 FXUS61 KBTV 110858 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 458 AM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Increasing clouds today ahead of approaching upper level shortwave which will bring light rain and snow showers to the North Country today. Moderating temperature trend continues through Friday. A clipper low pressure system will bring widespread rain on Thursday. There is more active weather in store continuing through the weekend and into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 446 AM EDT Wednesday...Clear skies this morning will be short lived with moisture overspreading the region with an upper level trough axis approaching from the west. Temperatures will warm today into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Upper level trough approaches from the Eastern Great Lakes, and will tap into some moisture and warmer air, advecting it northward through the day. Upper level dynamics are not terribly strong with this feature, therefore precipitation will be scattered and rather light. Chance for showers will spread west to east across our forecast area from this afternoon into the overnight. Highest pops are in the Dacks, the precip will fall apart a bit as it tracks into Vermont. Rain showers will dissipate overnight and end by Thursday morning. On Thursday a clipper low pressure system will approach from the Great Lakes region and pass North of our region Thursday night. Precipitation will be more widespread with this feature, spreading across our forecast area after 15z Thu. Best upper level forcing will remain North of our forecast area with strong shortwave energy North of the international border. Temperatures on Thu will reach 50 in some spots, 40s elsewhere.This means precipitation will mainly be in the form of rain showers after a quick bit of snow showers at the onset Thursday morning. Generally half an inch or less of precipitation is expected, with some notable shadowing in the Champlain valley. Will have some breezy south southwesterly winds during the afternoon, especially in the deeper valleys and high peaks. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 458 AM EDT Wednesday...Clipper low passing north of the CWA Thursday night will continue to bring fairly widespread light rain to the region through the evening hours until the trailing cold front passes after midnight where thereafter cold air advection on west/northwest flow will allow for some snow to mix in across the higher elevations before precip ends before dawn Friday. Summits could pick up a couple of inches, while nothing is expected below 2500 feet. Lows will range through the 30s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 458 AM EDT Wednesday...All eyes continue to look to the weekend where a thermally complex system will impact the North Country with a myriad of hazards possible including mixed precipitation, gusty southeast winds, and sharp river rises. Long range guidance is coming into better agreement with each model run increasing forecaster confidence that we're in for an extended period of precipitation from Friday afternoon through Tuesday, but confidence remains very low as to exactly what type of precip we see, especially Saturday through Sunday night. Synoptically the big picture hasn't changed from the previous days thinking where low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies over the central Plains late Thursday into Thursday night, while a mid/upper level ridge builds out ahead over the southeast CONUS and high pressure builds eastward out of the Canadian Prairies into Ontario. A sharp thermal boundary develops eastward out of the Plains low from the upper mid-west through the Great Lakes and across the northeast, fueled from the south by increasing south/southwest flow from high pressure anchored off the southeast coast, while the Canadian high drives a cold northerly flow from the other side of the boundary. This competing flow results in the boundary remaining fairly stationary directly over the North Country for Friday and Friday night with showers developing from west to east through the night. On Saturday, models continue to trend towards a scenario where high pressure to the north wins out and the aforementioned surface boundary shifts southward through the day with strong cold air advection dropping low level temps from the 30s north to 50s south to start the day, to the upper 20s north and mid 30s south by midnight, and further into the 20s area-wide Saturday night. Aloft, a deep warm nose persists from 850-700mb of +1-2C supporting precipitation becoming a wintry mix of snow, sleet and possibly freezing rain Saturday night before boundary layer temps rise into the mid 30s to mid 40s Sunday transitioning ptype back to mainly rain. As the boundary layer cools again Sunday night, the threat for additional mixed precip exists mainly east of the Greens as cold air remains dammed at the surface. Moving into Monday the system becomes vertically stacked and negatively tilted across the Mississippi/Ohio Valley region and the mid/upper level flow increasing dramatically from the south/southeast with 850mb winds up towards 70 knots noted across the region Monday afternoon. This will finally drive the surface boundary northward as a warm front with temps rising into the upper 40s. Occluded front quickly approaches Monday afternoon with a deep Gulf connection surging PWATs to over 1" supporting the idea of moderate to locally heavy rain developing through Monday night where rainfall combined with snow melt from the higher terrain will likely cause some sharp river rises across the region. Quick glance and the GEFS MMEFS shows a few rivers going into minor/moderate flood so that situation will need to be closely monitored. In addition, ahead of the front some uncertainty still exists on the development and location of a potential dry slot which could support a brief period of strong southeasterly winds mixing to the surface, localized across the western slope of the Adirondacks and Greens. Finally by Monday night into Tuesday the surface front moves through the region, but with the parent low moving overhead precipitation looks persist, but changes to a mix of rain and snow. All told, several hazards to keep an eye on over the next few days so stay tuned to future forecasts as we iron out the finer details. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...Clear skies along with light and variable winds overnight. Will have an increasing of mid and high level clouds as the day wears on...but any ceilings will remain in the VFR category. Winds will be picking up after 14z from the south and southwest with gusts in the 10 to 20 knot range...especially over northern New York. There will be some snow showers moving into northern New York after 20z but VFR conditions are still expected. Outlook... Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA. Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely RA, Likely SN. Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely RA, Likely SN. Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance RA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA, Likely SN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Neiles SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...Neiles - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html