FPUS51 KBTV 140717

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
314 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
314 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018


.TODAY...Cloudy. A chance of sleet or rain this morning, then sleet
likely or snow this afternoon. Snow and sleet accumulation a dusting
to 2 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. North winds 10 to 15 mph.
Chance of precipitation 80 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Snow. Additional snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Lows
in the lower 20s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow
80 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Snow likely in the morning, then snow or sleet or rain or
freezing rain likely in the afternoon. Total snow accumulation of
3 to 5 inches possible. Ice accumulation around a trace. Highs in
the lower 30s. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation
70 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Freezing rain likely. Lows in the upper 20s.
Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. 
.MONDAY...Rain or a chance of freezing rain. Breezy with highs in
the mid 40s. Southeast winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.
Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Rain, breezy with lows in the mid 30s. Chance of
rain near 100 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Rain or snow showers likely. Little or no snow
accumulation. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation
80 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers. Lows
around 30. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow
showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers.
Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow
showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain or snow showers. Highs
in the mid 40s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 


ASUS41 KBTV 141030
600 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2018




BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  39  33  79 N10       30.07R                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  37  37 100 N5        30.06R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     39  39 100 MISG      30.01R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    35  32  90 NW15G21   30.04R WCI  25          
MIDDLEBURY*    DRIZZLE   39  37  92 N10G18    30.05R WCI  32          
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  40  39  97 NW9       30.00R                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    45  41  86 VRB7      29.97R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    34  22  63 N9G23     30.15R WCI  26          
NEWPORT*       CLOUDY    32  26  77 N13G21    30.09R WCI  22          
BENNINGTON     MOCLDY    44  40  85 VRB3      29.96R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     32 N/A N/A NW7         N/A  WCI  26          
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     36 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     43 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     30 N/A N/A NW21        N/A  WCI  17          


BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     36  27  69 NE6G18      N/A  WCI  31          
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     37  25  60 N24         N/A  WCI  26          


FXUS61 KBTV 140842

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
442 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018

An active and dynamic weather pattern will be in place across the 
North Country through Monday night. An intensifying cold front will 
continue to slide southward across the region today, changing rain 
early this morning to a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain from 
north to south by early afternoon. The front will stall to our south 
through early Sunday, keeping wintry mixed precipitation across the 
region. The front will then lift back north as a warm front Sunday 
afternoon, allowing the mixed precipitation to change back over to 
all rain from the Champlain Valley west. We may see some areas of 
snow covered and/or icy road conditions through the weekend, 
especially during the nighttime periods. Briefly warmer temperatures 
arrive on Monday with gusty southeast winds, and the threat for 
minor flooding on the rivers due to the combination of rain and 
snowmelt. Thereafter, continued unseasonable cool conditions 
expected through the middle of next week, though overall chances for 
precipitation will diminish.


As of 431 AM EDT Saturday...A very challenging forecast 
with a prolonged mixed precipitation event to persist through the 
weekend. The Winter Weather Advisory remains in place for the entire 
forecast area. 

Low pressure currently positioned near the KS/MO/NE/IA borders will 
slowly push eastward today and tonight, reaching the Ohio Valley 
Sunday morning. A cold front stretches from this low eastward across 
northern NY into New England. This front will gradually sag 
southward through the North Country through the morning hours today, 
eventually settling near coastal New England this afternoon and 
tonight. The below-freezing air at the surface has been slow to make 
much southward progress early this morning and still lies poised 
just north of the international border, but it will make more 
headway in the next few hours, undercutting warmer air aloft. 
Moisture streaming northward around a digging upper trough over the 
Central Plains will interact with this front, resulting in 
widespread precipitation across the area. Precipitation is still 
mostly in the form of rain this morning and has become more showery 
in nature, but it will quickly transition to a mix of snow, sleet, 
and freezing rain and reintensify this afternoon as an upper 
shortwave skirts across the Northeast. With the cold air diving 
south, expect the warm nose aloft to become sufficiently shallow to 
allow much of the precipitation to fall as sleet across a good 
portion of the area; the northern tier will turn to all snow while 
far southern sections will see freezing rain and a deeper warm 
layer. Expect this mixed precipitation will continue in earnest 
tonight with the aforementioned shortwave, and this is likely when 
the most impacts will be felt as ground temperatures drop below 
freezing; given the time of year expect snow/sleet/ice accumulations 
will mainly be on elevated surfaces through the daylight hours. 

The frontal boundary will lift back north as a warm front on Sunday 
as warmer air streams northward ahead of the digging upper trough. 
It's hard to discern exactly how quickly (or slowly) the cold air at 
the surface will scour out, but anticipate wintry mixed 
precipitation will prevail through at least a good chunk of Sunday 
morning. Additional snow/sleet/ice accumulation will be possible, 
even on ground surfaces as temperatures will be cold. Then warm air 
will gradually filter in through the afternoon, mainly in the wider 
valleys. This will allow precipitation to change back over to rain. 
Still, highs are only expected to reach the mid 30s in these 
locations.  The mountain areas will remain freezing rain through 
much of the day, especially east of the Greens where the cold air 
will be hard to remove and highs will only top out around 30. All 
told, snow/sleet accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are anticipated over 
northern NY/VT, with local amounts in excess of 5 inches in the far 
northern Adirondacks/Greens. Ice accumulations will range from just 
a few hundredths in the far north (where precip will fall mainly as 
snow/sleet) to around quarter of an inch in the central 
Adirondacks/southern Greens. These amounts will result in difficult 
travel conditions, especially overnight/early Sunday. Power outages 
will also be possible.


As of 433 AM EDT Saturday...A very active period of weather
anticipated with multiple impacts expected from ice 
accumulation Sunday Night to strong/gusty winds Monday...and 
some hydro concerns Monday into Tuesday. A couple of trends 
noted in the latest 00z guidance...the low level jet on Monday 
is increased to 60 to 75 knots along with the threat for 
localized damaging winds along the central/southern western 
slopes. In addition...00z guidance has trended colder with 2m 
and 925mb temps Sunday Night into Monday...supporting more 
freezing rain/sleet...with some additional ice accumulation 
likely, especially central/eastern VT and parts of northern NY. 
Winter wx advisory will likely need to be extended for parts of 
the area into Monday. Isolated to scattered power outages are 
possible from the combination of ice accretion on tree 
limbs/power lines and strong gusty southeast winds. Difficult to
determine if temps warm enough to melt ice on limbs/power lines
before the gusty southeast winds develop on Monday. 

Large scale synoptic pattern shows a complex surface and upper air 
system across the eastern CONUS, with 1045mb high pres over central 
Canada and 998mb low pres across the Ohio Valley into the Mid 
Atlantic States and associated boundary draped across our cwa. 
Meanwhile...aloft we have a deeply closed and negatively tilted 
mid/upper level system with potent short wave energy rotating thru 
trof axis. Developing south/southeast 850mb winds of 45 to 55 knots 
will help to push 0c isotherm toward the international border by 06z 
Monday...but 925mb and 2m temps still below 0c supporting a mix of 
sleet/freezing rain. I still have difficulties believing boundary 
layer temps don't warm above freezing along the western slopes/cpv 
and parts of the western downslope winds develop and 
compressional warming occurs...especially in mid April. I tried to 
show a quicker warming trend in these areas...however with easterly 
sfc winds and cold air damming from high pres to our 
north...thinking eastern/central Vt including the northeast kingdom 
will stay locked to support a mix of sleet/freezing rain overnight 
into midday Monday. Additional ice accumulation of 0.10 to 0.20 
is possible...mainly Sunday Night with some difficult travel 
expected. Roads should quickly improve on Monday Morning with 
warming pavement temps in high April sun angle with only minor 
additional ice accumulation expected after 12z. Soundings show 
pocket of cold air between 1500 and 3000 feet on Monday...which 
is fairly common in winter months with cold air damming and 
strong se flow helping to cool windward side of mountains. This 
midslope elevation could see addition ice accumulation on tree 

Next major concern is for strong and potentially damaging southeast 
downslope winds on Monday. Latest guidance shows a potent 925mb to 
850mb jet of 60 to 75 knots lifting from south to north across our 
region...with highest values from Ripton/East Middlebury south 
toward Rutland/Danby. Soundings show a sharp low level inversion 
around 2000 feet, with winds of 50 to 60 knots at this level...with 
some mixing of winds below ridgetop and localized bursts of winds 
between 50 and 60 mph possible. A high wind watch maybe needed for 
western slopes if current trends continue. Still some uncertainty on 
amount of mixing with cold sfc temps and if strongest winds occur 
with heaviest precip...which could offset surface winds. 

Otherwise...occluded front will move from southwest to northeast 
across our cwa on Monday with a period of moderate to isolated heavy 
rainfall. Soundings show some elevated instability with showalter 
values between -1 and -2...which will support stronger convective 
elements and maybe a rumble of thunder. Southeast low level jet will 
greatly impact qpf on western slopes/parts of the NEK and western have tried to show this detail in grids. Thinking event 
total from today through late Monday will be 1 to 2 inches with 
isolated higher amounts. Remember first part will fall as frozen amount of runoff will be tricky and mainly on Monday 
when temps warm above freezing. More on hydro section below. Temps 
warm into the upper 30s to upper 40s with some lower 50s 
possible...before quickly dropping back into the 20s mountains and 
30s valleys on Monday Night.


As of 433 AM EDT Saturday...Updated grids with superblend guidance 
and made necessary changes to weather grids. Otherwise...very 
little time was allocated for the long term. Expect mid/upper 
level trof continues with below normal temps and unsettled wx 
prevailing. Daily rain and mountain snow showers looks likely on
Tuesday into Weds with some snow accumulation possible above 
1500 feet. Temps mainly upper 20s to mid 30s mountains to 
mid/upper 40s valleys with lows 20s and 30s. 


Through 06Z Sunday...A cold front will drop south through the 
region from about 08z through 16z Sat, with temperatures 
quickly dropping through the morning hours. Drier air will
briefly follow the front, allowing for a break in the steady
precipitation. Widespread IFR/LIFR will gradually give way to
MVFR and perhaps even some VFR for a time this morning/early
afternoon. Any lingering rain will change over to a mix of snow,
sleet, and freezing rain through the day today, with all but RUT
and MPV changing over to all snow by 00z Sun. Precipitation will
reintensify around 21z today, with conditions dropping back to
MVFR and eventually IFR by late this evening. 


Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely FZRA, Chance
RA, Chance SN, Chance PL.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Likely RA, Likely FZRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Strong winds with
gusts to 40 kt. Definite RA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Likely SHRA, Likely RA, Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance SHSN.


As of 445 AM EDT Saturday...A flood watch continues for Monday 
afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. Moderate to localized heavy
rainfall on Monday will combine with snow melt to cause sharp 
rises on local waterways. Current forecasts indicate some rivers
may reach minor; those river gages with the best chances of 
exceeding flood stage include the Winooski River at Essex 
Junction (ESSV1), Otter Creek at Center Rutland (CENV1), the Mad
River at Moretown (MOOV1), and the East Branch of the Ausable 
River at Ausable Forks (ASFN6). Persons with interests along 
area waterways should remain alert for rapidly changing river 
conditions and stay tuned to further developments on this 


VT...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon 
     for VTZ001>012-016>019.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for VTZ001>004-
     Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT 
     Sunday for VTZ009>012-019.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT 
     Sunday for VTZ005-007-008-017-018.
NY...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon 
     for NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NYZ026>031-
     Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT 
     Sunday for NYZ034-035.


NEAR TERM...Hastings

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