Expires:201805152000;;980901 FPUS51 KBTV 150649 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York National Weather Service Burlington VT 246 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018 VTZ006-152000- Lamoille- Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe 246 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018 .TODAY...Occasional showers. Highs in the mid 60s. Southwest winds around 10 mph, becoming northwest this afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. A chance of showers until midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows in the upper 30s. Northwest winds around 10 mph until midnight, becoming light and variable. Chance of rain 30 percent. .WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs around 70. Light and variable winds, becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. .THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 40. .FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. .SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain 60 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows around 50. .SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows around 50. .MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s. $$ Expires:201805151100;;989868 ASUS41 KBTV 151030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-151100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON MOCLDY 66 56 70 S8 29.74F MONTPELIER MOCLDY 53 51 93 CALM 29.81F MORRISVILLE FAIR 49 47 93 CALM 29.77F ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 49 47 93 MISG 29.78S LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 49 46 88 CALM 29.80F MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 64 56 75 S9 29.79R RUTLAND* CLOUDY 56 51 84 SE8 29.81S SPRINGFIELD FAIR 51 50 96 CALM 29.83R HIGHGATE* CLOUDY 62 54 74 S5 29.75R NEWPORT* FAIR 51 47 88 CALM 29.77F BENNINGTON FAIR 54 52 93 CALM 29.83R ISLAND POND* N/A 43 N/A N/A E2 N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 46 N/A N/A MISG N/A UNION VILLAGE* N/A 50 N/A N/A MISG N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 55 N/A N/A SW22 N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 55 50 82 SW9G15 N/A COLCHESTER RF* N/A 59 48 67 S20 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 59 54 82 SW8 N/A $$ Expires:No;;983607 FXUS61 KBTV 150808 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 408 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front across southern Quebec and Ontario will settle southward across the North Country today. Combined with a mid-level disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes, periods of showers are expected across the region today, with a chance of thunderstorms, mainly across south-central Vermont. Cooler and drier conditions return tonight with light north winds. Will see areas of fog tonight as skies become mostly clear. Dry and seasonable weather conditions are expected Wednesday through Friday. Additional rain is expected to accompany a warm front during the day Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 338 AM EDT Tuesday...At 0730Z, a cold front extended from north of Quebec City wswwd into the northern Great Lakes region. Strong 300mb jet extends along and north of the front, with right entrance region enhancing upper tropospheric divergence and helping to drive convective storms early this AM across Lake Erie and southeastern Ontario into srn lower Michigan. It's a relatively warm pre-dawn period across the North Country. South of the frontal bndry, south winds and mid-upper level clouds overspreading the region from WSW-ENE are keeping temperatures mainly in the 50s, though better mixing in the Champlain Valley has BTV at 67F at 0730Z. Overall expectation for today is that mid-upr level forcing across the ern Great Lakes will shift enewd into our region this morning, driving widespread clouds and numerous showers crossing the nrn half of the CWA during the 12-18Z period...mainly across nrn NY and nrn VT. There is some modest moistening of the low- mid levels with PW values climbing to 1.2-1.4" per 00Z NAM. Raised PoPs to 80-90% for light to moderate showers...should see QPF mainly in the 0.25-0.50" range. A bit further south, surface-based instability axis develops with daytime heating from central PA newd into western New England. South-central VT is on the northern fringe of the instability, with SBCAPE values reaching 400-600 J/kg across Rutland/Windsor counties around 18Z per NAM and 3km NAM- Nest. As surface boundary settles southward across the North Country this afternoon, will see increasing likelihood of some embedded convective elements across across Windsor/Rutland/Orange counties 18-22Z time frame. While activity is not expected to become severe, dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning and brief heavy rainfall will be possible. Included mention of this in the morning Hazardous Weather Outlook for Rutland/Windsor/Orange counties. Further north, will generally see showers ending once front pushes thru the area around 18Z. Abundant clouds will keep temperatures near seasonal averages for mid-May, with highs today generally be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Light northerly flow and ridge axis building into nrn NY and VT will bring drier air tonight with dewpoints dropping back into the 40s. With the expected 0.25-0.50" rainfall today and clearing skies/light winds tonight, anticipate areas of fog, especially in the favored valleys. Overnight lows mainly in the low-mid 40s, except as low as the mid 30s across the nrn Adirondacks and far nern VT. Once fog dissipates, should see mostly sunny conditions on Wednesday with a return of southerly winds 10-15 mph. Temperatures will moderate back into the low-mid 70s for highs. PoPs NIL overnight thru Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 338 AM EDT Tuesday...High pressure remains over the area for Wednesday night into Thursday as dry weather continues. Seasonal temperatures are expected with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s and highs in the mid 60s to the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 338 AM EDT Tuesday...Thursday night into Friday will continue to see dry weather with high pressure remaining over the northeast United States. Models have slowed a bit as deeper moisture looks to begin moving into the region Friday night into early Saturday morning. Periods of rain showers are expected across most of the region Saturday afternoon and into Sunday. Plenty of cloud cover...precipitation...and deeper moisture will result in daytime temperatures slightly below normal temperatures for the weekend. Higher precipitable water values are expected in this flow pattern and the idea of fairly widespread rainfall totals of a half inch to an inch continues to looks good. Deeper moisture pushes east Sunday night into Monday for a return toward drier weather next week. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 12Z Wednesday...Will see a gradual increase in mid- level VFR cloudiness (9-12kft) across the region through sunrise. Thereafter, will see region of light to moderate rain showers move across the TAF sites between 12-18Z, with periods of MVFR ceilings and vsby possible. There is also a chance of a thunderstorm, mainly for KRUT between 16-20Z where surface-based instability will be greatest. Frontal zone shifts sewd across the area with nwly wind shift expected 17-19Z (18Z at BTV). Overall wind speeds will not be strong...generally 5-10kts thru the daylight hrs. Diminishing winds with weak high pressure building in tonight. With clearing skies and wet ground, anticipate areas of fog 02-12Z tonight. Currently carrying 3-4SM BR at SLK/MPV/RUT after 02Z Wednesday...and will need to monitor for possible BR or FG at the remaining TAF locations as well. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Banacos NEAR TERM...Banacos SHORT TERM...Verasamy LONG TERM...Verasamy AVIATION...Banacos - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html