Expires:201805192000;;185554 FPUS51 KBTV 190731 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York National Weather Service Burlington VT 329 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018 VTZ006-192000- Lamoille- Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe 329 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018 .TODAY...Partly sunny this morning, then rain showers this afternoon. Highs in the lower 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. .TONIGHT...A slight chance of thunderstorms. Showers. Lows in the upper 40s. South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent. .SUNDAY...Cloudy with occasional showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then partly sunny with a chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 60s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. .MONDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. .MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. .TUESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 50s. .WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 60s. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 40s. .THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. .FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. $$ Expires:201805191100;;193011 ASUS41 KBTV 191030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2018 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-191100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON MOCLDY 50 38 63 SE9 30.33F MONTPELIER FAIR 43 34 70 SE3 30.43R MORRISVILLE FAIR 35 34 96 CALM 30.39S ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 37 35 92 MISG 30.40S LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 40 32 71 CALM 30.41S MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 52 32 46 S5 30.35S RUTLAND* FAIR 51 25 36 S10 30.36F SPRINGFIELD FAIR 40 38 93 CALM 30.42S HIGHGATE* FAIR 44 37 78 SE5 30.32F NEWPORT* FAIR 44 33 66 CALM 30.38S BENNINGTON FAIR 52 20 28 E7 30.34S ISLAND POND* N/A 32 N/A N/A CALM N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 32 N/A N/A MISG N/A UNION VILLAGE* N/A 39 N/A N/A MISG N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 41 N/A N/A SE21 N/A WCI 32 _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 50 45 81 S7 N/A COLCHESTER RF* N/A 46 39 76 S15 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 48 41 76 S7 N/A $$ Expires:No;;186027 FXUS61 KBTV 190748 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 348 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will bring widespread rain showers to the North Country mainly this afternoon. Scattered showers and a slight chance of thunder are expected tonight as temperatures warm overnight. Sunday morning a frontal system will pass through the region with showers ending and some clearing behind it for Sunday afternoon with temperatures in the 60s to around 70. High pressure quickly builds back in to start the work week with above normal temperatures and dry weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 248 AM EDT Saturday...Clouds starting to increase this morning ahead of a warm front. Expecting breezy south winds associated with developing low level jet of 20 to 30 knots at 1000 feet. This jet will help to increase moisture with clouds lowering and thickening during the late morning. Mainly light rain showers should arrive between 10-noon south and noon-2pm central and 2-4pm near the international border. Some downslope shadowing is possible in the Champlain valley with developing 850mb southwest jet of 40 to 50 knots off the Adirondacks. Temps warm into the 50s south to mid 60s north through midday, but cool back into the lower to mid 50s this afternoon after the rain arrives and wet bulb cooling takes place. Rain will become more showery in nature Saturday night as the best warm advection and overrunning lifts northeast of the area by the evening hours. Some of the area, especially in northern NY may get into the warm sector while east of the Greens its less likely. South to southwest winds pick up in the Champlain Valley westward with a low level jet aloft with gusts of 20-30 mph. Shower chances become less early tonight as the warm sector aloft and dry slot moves in tonight there could be a period during the night without much going on before a cold front approaches the St. Lawrence Valley by early Sunday with an increase in precip probabilities. Models continue showing some CAPE to around 250 J/kg, mainly elevated, while the GFS is less. The Showalter index is slightly negative and Ks in the 30s, so a rumble of thunder is not out of the question and have slight chance in the forecast but coverage is low. Simulated satellite from the BTV WRF continues to show some embedded convective cells in the warm sector on the edge of the warm front aloft and the cold front closer to the St Lawrence Valley. The cold front on our doorstep by 12z Sun with showers ahead and along the front but clearing behind. The front will move steadily southeast Sunday with a decreasing probability of precipitation from northwest to southeast but should clear most of our area by early afternoon. Timing will play a role in the instability ahead of the front and indications are that some weak instability will develop mainly southeast VT (near VSF) and points south. Again MUCAPE only near 250 J/kg so not including thunder for Sunday morning. Looking like about a half inch of rain is expected with locally 0.75 in any heavier showers or embedded thunderstorms. Temperatures Saturday night will be steady or rising ranging from early evening lows the upper 40s east of the Greens to mid to upper 50s in the St. Lawrence valley rising through the 50s to around 60 by Sunday morning. Gradual clearing is expected on Sunday afternoon behind the front with NW winds of 10 to 20 kts and high temperatures close to normal with readings in the mid 60s mountains to lower 70s in the lower Champlain and CT valleys. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 AM EDT Saturday...Pretty quiet 24 or so hour period. Should be mostly clear Sunday night in the wake of the front. Overnight low temperatures will be seasonable for this time of year. Monday the region will still be under dry northwest flow. With the strong late May sunshine heating the ground, that should result in a super-adiabatic lapse rate near the surface and excellent boundary layer mixing. Thus I leaned more toward the warmest guidance I could find. We should top out in the mid to upper 70s in most areas, with a spot 80F not out of the question either. Given the boundary layer mixing, did opt to lower the dewpoints given the progged dry air aloft. Should see afternoon relative humidities in the lower 20s% range, so it will be something for the fire community to monitor. Monday night should be similar to Sunday night -- lots of clear skies and light winds. Lows will range from the 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 340 AM EDT Saturday...00z guidance suite in "okay" agreement, and at the very least it doesn't appear that any significant storms will affect the area for the period. Just a couple of minor systems. The model blend guidance appeared fairly reasonable, and only made a few tweaks from that. My commentary, if you wish to read it, for each of the days follows... Tuesday: a weak shortwave combined with southwest flow will result in an increase in clouds and the potential for showers, especially later in the day and into Tuesday night. As the previous forecaster noted, guidance hints at a little bit of instability, mainly elevated Tuesday night. So although a thunderstorm can't be ruled out, given any strong signals, I have opted to keep mention out of the forecast at this point. With 925mb temperatures on the rather warm side (15-18C), we should again be well above normal for temperatures, with highs in the 70s. Could make a run at 80F in northern areas where the clouds will hold off til later in the day. Despite the talk of showers, the PoPs aren't all that high - just 25-35% late Tuesday and Tuesday night. That means most of the time for most of us it will be rainfree. The clouds Tuesday night will also keep lows well above normal (mainly 50s). Wednesday: as the shortwave passes by early in the day, an associated weak surface low will pass by to our north. As that happens, winds switch to the northwest and some cooler air comes in. GFS has a fairly noticeable cold front, while the Euro is weaker and keeps most of the cooler air to the north. Played middle of the road for temperatures at this point with highs upper 60s to lower 70s. Not a lot of dynamics or instability around, so although there could be a few showers with the front, not expecting any t-storms. Kept the PoPs generally in the 25-30% range. Thursday: GFS and ECMWF both offer solutions which suggest a mostly sunny and dry day with northwest flow aloft and a ridge of high pressure at the surface. Big differences in temperatures. The cooler GFS has 925mb temperatures of 8-10C (which equate to highs in the 60s), while the EC is already pushing away the slight bit of cool air from Wednesday and has 925mb temperatures in the 16-18C range (which equates to highs well into the 70s if not lower 80s). However the EC solution is a fairly big change from it's previous runs which were considerably cooler. So I stuck with the model blend which at this point still skews toward the "cooler" solution, which is still near normal. Obviously a fairly large forecast error bar exists. Friday: still northwest flow aloft and looks mostly dry. Now it's the 00z GFS that is warmest (925mb temps 16-18C) vs the EC which cools slightly to 14-16C at 925mb. In either case, it's looking like temperatures in the 70s is a good bet, though like Thursday, there is a wide error bar on the forecast, and it could be more summer like as we end the week and transition into the Memorial Day holiday weekend. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z SUNDAY...VFR conditions are expected this morning then trend MVFR this evening with LLWS possible late tonight. A warm front will approach tonight preceded by light rain showers that will move north into the area 15-19z continuing through 23-01z. Flight conditions will trend toward MVFR vsby and cigs as the rain showers taper off. Keeping a chance of showers through 06z with the warm front aloft. There is a slight chance of thunder with instability aloft, but not enough to include in the TAFs. Winds will be light except for a SE drainage wind at RUT through the morning. Expected S-SE winds around 6-8 kt at all TAF sites by morning. Winds will increase out of the S around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt or so from 14-18z. Gusts should be limited after 18z during the rain, however the exception may be RUT with may maintain gusty SE winds through 00z. Areas of LLWS and turbulence area expected around 2000 ft but lowering to 1000 ft with the warm front aloft with a strong 35-50 kt SW jet just above the surface. Showers will move back in late as a cold front approaches Sunday morning. Outlook... Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sisson NEAR TERM...Sisson SHORT TERM...Nash LONG TERM...Nash AVIATION...Sisson - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html