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Expires:201806012000;;256583
FPUS51 KBTV 010725
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
322 AM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018


VTZ006-012000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
322 AM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.TODAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms this morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely
this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and heavy
rainfall this afternoon. Highs in the lower 80s. Light and variable
winds. Chance of rain 60 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
until midnight, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a
slight chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Patchy fog after
midnight. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and heavy
rainfall until midnight. Lows in the mid 50s. Light and variable
winds, becoming north around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain
50 percent. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then clearing. Less humid
with highs in the lower 70s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Northeast winds 10 to
15 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Light and variable winds. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 60. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the upper 40s. Chance of
rain 60 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Showers likely. Highs around 60. Chance of rain
60 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of
showers. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 60s. 

$$


Expires:201806011100;;264228
ASUS41 KBTV 011030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT FRI JUN 01 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-011100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     MOCLDY    72  66  81 S12       29.79S                  
MONTPELIER     CLOUDY    68  66  93 SW5       29.86F                  
MORRISVILLE    MOCLDY    70  66  87 VRB3      29.80F                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     69  66  90 MISG      29.81S                  
LYNDONVILLE*   CLOUDY    67  64  91 CALM      29.86S                  
MIDDLEBURY*    CLOUDY    69  66  90 CALM      29.82S                  
RUTLAND*       CLOUDY    68  66  93 SE5       29.84S                  
SPRINGFIELD    CLOUDY    67  65  93 VRB5      29.86R                  
HIGHGATE*      RAIN      71  67  88 S6        29.77S                  
NEWPORT*       MOCLDY    68  65  89 CALM      29.82S                  
BENNINGTON     HVY RAIN  68  65  90 CALM      29.84F FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     68 N/A N/A SE2         N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     66 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     68 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     63 N/A N/A SW24        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     64  63  94 SW10G16     N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     61  61 100 S17         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     66  66 100 SW8         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;259903
FXUS61 KBTV 010838
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
438 AM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Air mass will destabilize this afternoon with development of 
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will be strong 
with locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and dangerous cloud to
ground lightning. A cold frontal passage will provide cooler 
and drier conditions for the weekend, with high temperatures 
mainly in the 70s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Friday...A weak shortwave currently crossing
the area is kicking off some light rain shower activity across
the area. Looks like this weak shortwave will cause light shower
activity pushing west to east across our area and ending by
about noon. Will have partial clearing behind departing
shortwave with some drying evident on water vapor imagery. Then
next area of shortwave energy will cross the area this afternoon
and kick off some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Best
chance for thunderstorms seems to be across our Northern New
York zones probably after about 17-18z. Partial clearing helps
to destabilize the boundary layer this afternoon, and very moist
airmass will see dewpoints reaching the upper 60s, very humid.
Maximum temperatures will reach the lower 80s across the area,
so pretty decent surface based instability. CAPE values should
exceed 1000 J/kg this afternoon, so we should see some
thunderstorm development. Bulk shear and lapse rates fall just
short of favorable, and will likely be a limiting factor to any
organized convection. Storms should be pulse like and may have
locally heavy rainfall, though highest pwat air is currently
over the area and pushing eastward. Model soundings indicate
that storm motions will be weak, and if we have backbuilding or
training with the thunderstorms, one location could receive
significant rain. Average rainfall across the area will be
between a third and a half an inch, more in thunderstorms with
heavy rain. 

Surface cold front finally crosses the area this evening and
will have some light rain showers with the fropa. Will have
decreasing pops overnight with Northwesterly flow behind the
front ushering in some cooler and drier air during the second
part of the overnight. Have mentioned possible patchy fog
development in the typically fog prone spots, especially in any
areas that see heavy rainfall in thunderstorms this afternoon. 

Surface and upper level ridging will take place on Saturday and
a drier air mass sinks down over our area out of Canada.
Temperatures on Saturday will be back closer to seasonal normals
and should have a mix of sun and clouds, especially by the
afternoon with the drier air mass. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 338 AM EDT Friday...The combination of weak short wave
ridge between 700-500mb, along with 1026mb high pres nosing into
the north country will result in dry conditions on Sunday.
Progged 850mb temps btwn 8-10c support highs in the upper 60s to
mid 70s with light north/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. On
Sunday night short wave energy weakens and initial moisture
fields dissipate as mid/upper level trof encounters riding.
Thinking most of the night stays dry, with some increasing
mid/upper level clouds from west to east. Temps with developing
southeast flow will cool into the mid 40s to lower 50s, except
some upper 30s possible northeast kingdom.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 338 AM EDT Friday...Still lots of uncertainty with
development of ne conus trof and timing of potential showers.
Latest guidance has delayed arrival of precip until later Monday
into Tuesday, as ridge/dry air weakens initial surge of
moisture/lift. Given the uncertainty on timing of precip and
areal coverage of moisture fields, have gone with straight
superblend for pops, which shows likely south to chc north on
Monday. Progged 850mb temps are btwn 4-6c with developing low
level easterly/southeast flow...supporting highs mid 50s to mid
60s, but if more sun occurs these temps will be 3 to 6 degrees
too cool. Better dynamics/forcing, along with deeper moisture
associated with mid/upper level cyclonic circulation impacts our
cwa Monday Night into Tuesday. Both GFS/ECMWF agree on showers
and will continue to mention likely pops. As cold pool aloft is
directly overhead on Tuesday afternoon with -20c at 500mb, some
instability driven convective showers will be possible.
Difficult to determine how much sfc heating will occur with
progged 850mb temps only btwn 3-5c and plenty of clouds expected
under upper level trof. Will mention highs lower/mid 50s mtns to
lower 60s warmer valleys on Tues. Little change is anticipated
for Weds, as trof lingers across the ne conus along with the
potential for more showers and cool temps. A slow drying and
warming trend is anticipated by late week, as trof lifts
northeast and building ridge develops.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Mix of VFR and MVFR currently with some
lower ceilings at MPV, SLK, and RUT. So far not much in the way
of showers on radar tonight, save for an area moving from
Ontario into Quebec and staying to our North. Still think storms
will initiate by about 16 or 17z this afternoon. Winds continue
to gust out of the South at BTV to about 20 kts. Heavy 
downpours, brief gusty winds and localized IFR visibilities 
possible with thunderstorm activity after 17z and mainly from
SLK eastward. After 20Z cold front pushes into the region with 
precipitation trending more showery over time as winds gradually
shift to the west/northwest from 5-10 kts.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Neiles

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