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Expires:201806042000;;410049
FPUS51 KBTV 040723
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
321 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018


VTZ006-042000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
321 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

.TODAY...Showers. Highs in the mid 50s. South winds 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 40s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph until
midnight. 
.TUESDAY...A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely
in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 50s. Light and variable winds.
Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 40s. Light and
variable winds. Chance of rain 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the lower 60s. Light and variable winds. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the lower 50s. 
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs
around 70. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 50. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. 

$$


Expires:201806041100;;417597
ASUS41 KBTV 041030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT MON JUN 04 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-041100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     LGT RAIN  50  42  74 S12       29.84R                  
MONTPELIER     LGT RAIN  45  44  97 S12       29.90S                  
MORRISVILLE    CLOUDY    47  42  83 S7        29.86S                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     49  43  80 MISG      29.86R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   DRIZZLE   46  40  79 SE8       29.89R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    RAIN      46  44  93 S6        29.86F                  
RUTLAND*       LGT RAIN  45  43  93 S12G17    29.88F                  
SPRINGFIELD    RAIN      46  45  96 CALM      29.92R FOG              
HIGHGATE*      LGT RAIN  47  45  90 S5        29.82R                  
NEWPORT*       LGT RAIN  45  44  95 CALM      29.86S                  
BENNINGTON     LGT RAIN  47  43  86 SE5       29.85F FOG              
ISLAND POND*     N/A     46 N/A N/A E5          N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     45 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
UNION VILLAGE*   N/A     46 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
MT. MANSFIELD*   N/A     36 N/A N/A E29         N/A  WCI  23          

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     50  46  87 S15G23      N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     50  43  76 S36         N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     48  43  81 S18         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;411093
FXUS61 KBTV 040752
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
352 AM EDT Mon Jun 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A developing trough of low pressure will produce cool and unsettled 
weather across northern New York into Vermont to start the new work 
week. A steady rain this morning will taper off to scattered showers 
this afternoon with temperatures mainly in the 50s to near 60. More 
showers are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday with below normal 
temperatures. Drier and warmer weather returns toward the end of the 
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 351 AM EDT Monday...Water vapor shows deep layer moisture 
with pws btwn 1.25 and 1.50 advecting ahead of negatively 
tilted mid/upper level trof across the northern Great Lakes. 
This deeper moisture axis will shift east of our cwa this 
morning, along with a surface occluded front, as steadier precip
ends by 14z cpv and exits eastern VT by 16z. Well defined dry 
slot will move across our cwa, but with plenty of moisture below
700mb, expect mostly cloudy skies to prevail. Potent short wave
energy will rotate around ulvl trof and impact northern NY this
aftn with additional showers. However, thinking areal coverage 
of precip will be scattered in nature given the lack of deep 
layer moisture. HRRR soundings at KMSS show weak instability 
with sfc based cape values of 200 to 400 j/kg and li's around 
-2c, so a rumble of thunder is possible, especially given the 
strong upper level forcing associated with vort. Best chance 
would be slv/western dacks btwn 20z-00z this aftn. Soundings 
also support some breezy winds across the slv and parts of 
northern ny/cpv this aftn, especially in the aligned sw to ne 
slv. Thinking localized gusts btwn 25 and 30 knots looks 
reasonable. Temps are tricky today with cooling aloft with trof,
but if some breaks in the overcast develop we could be several 
degrees warmer than forecast. Thinking upper 40s to lower 50s 
eastern/central vt to mid 50/lower 60s cpv/northern ny, 
including the slv. 

Tonight into Tuesday...Little overall change in forecast with 
regards to large scale synoptic features and associated impacts. 
Mid/upper level trof prevails with embedded spokes of energy and 
moisture rotate around trof and impact our fa. This will produce 
unsettled conditions tonight into Tuesday with temps remaining below 
normal. Tuesday will not be a completely washout with many hours of 
dry weather expected, however some scattered showers are likely from 
time to time. Best concentration of shower activity looks to be 
focused over the mountains of central/northern VT as weak upslope 
flow develops from vertically stacked low pres over southern Canada. 
Progged 850 to 925mb thermal profiles change very little from today, 
so highs once again mid 50s to lower/mid 60s for Tuesday with lows 
tonight mainly in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Little diurnal change with 
clouds and winds. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...Mid-level low should become an open 
wave with trough axis expected to translate sewd across NY/VT 
Tuesday night and eventually toward the New England coast by 12Z
Wednesday. Should see scattered rain showers (40-60% PoPs) 
associated with this feature, with shower activity gradually 
becoming more focused across s-central VT toward the latter half
of Tuesday night. N-NW flow develops in the wake of the trough 
by early Wednesday morning, with partial clearing expected from 
north to south. May see just a chance of a lingering shower 
across central/ern VT during the daylight hrs Wednesday (PoPs 
around 20%). Lows Tuesday night expected to be in the mid 40s, 
with highs on Wednesday in the low-mid 60s. 

Generally in northwesterly 700-500mb flow Wednesday night, Thursday, 
and Thursday night. An embedded shortwave trough and associated weak 
sfc cold front may bring isold/sct showers (20-30% PoPs) as it moves 
across the North Country late Thursday or Thursday night. Any 
rainfall should be relatively light (generally 0.10" or less). Highs 
on Thursday should reach the upr 60s to lower 70s, with overnight 
lows in the low-mid 50s for Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 339 AM EDT Monday...The 00Z ECMWF and 00Z GFS are generally 
consistent Friday and Saturday building high pressure across 
the region. Should see generally fair and seasonable conditions,
with valley highs in the low-mid 70s Friday and Saturday, with 
lows Friday night ranging from the mid 40s in the 
Adirondacks/Northeast Kingdom, to the mid 50s in the Champlain 
Valley. The 00Z NWP guidance suite begins to diverge Saturday 
night into Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF has a more robust mid- level 
trough and more northern track to sfc frontal zone suggesting 
widespread rainfall Saturday night into Sunday across northern 
NY and Vermont. The 00Z GFS portrays a weaker system that is 
suppressed to the south. The GFS has shown better run-to-run 
consistency to this point, so kept PoPs in the 20-30% range - 
highest south. Highs on Sunday currently expected in the low-mid
70s, but the ECMWF suggests temperatures could be several 
degrees cooler than the official forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...Crnt obs show a mix of vfr/mvfr with band
of light to moderate rain approaching the cpv. Expect mainly
mvfr cigs to develop with periods of 3-5sm vis in moderate rain
btwn 06-12z this morning. Southeast upslope flow at mpv will 
result in lower cigs developing by sunrise with some ifr 
possible. Also, watching the potential for ifr cigs at mss as 
winds shift to the southwest and low level moisture from lake 
ontario works up the slv. Rain should taper off from west to 
east btwn 10z-15z today, with additional scattered showers 
redeveloping btwn 18z-00z today. Mainly mvfr cigs prevail on 
Monday. Southeast winds this morning at 5 to 15 knots with
localized gusts to 25 knots possible at rutland, will shift to
the southwest on Monday.  

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Banacos
LONG TERM...Banacos
AVIATION...Taber

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