Expires:201807312000;;327496 FPUS51 KBTV 311025 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York National Weather Service Burlington VT 621 AM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018 VTZ006-312000- Lamoille- Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe 621 AM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018 .TODAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers this morning, then partly sunny with a slight chance of showers this afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 40 percent. .TONIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Light and variable winds. .WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds, becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms. Humid with lows in the upper 60s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. .THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 40 percent. .FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 70s. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 60s. .SATURDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 80s. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 80s. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. .MONDAY...Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs in the upper 80s. $$ Expires:201807311100;;327554 ASUS41 KBTV 311030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2018 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-311100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON MOCLDY 67 64 90 NE5 30.12S MONTPELIER MOCLDY 60 60 100 CALM 30.19S ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 60 60 100 MISG 30.14R LYNDONVILLE* CLOUDY 58 57 97 CALM 30.18S MIDDLEBURY* CLOUDY 64 63 96 CALM 30.14S RUTLAND* CLOUDY 62 60 93 SE5 30.16R SPRINGFIELD FAIR 61 61 100 CALM 30.16R HIGHGATE* LGT RAIN 66 64 93 SE3 30.11S NEWPORT* FAIR 59 58 96 S3 30.15S BENNINGTON MOCLDY 62 60 93 CALM 30.16R FOG ISLAND POND* N/A 55 N/A N/A CALM N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 57 N/A N/A MISG N/A UNION VILLAGE* N/A 61 N/A N/A MISG N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 57 N/A N/A NW10 N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 70 64 83 S9G15 N/A COLCHESTER RF* N/A 70 64 83 S9 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 68 68 100 S3 N/A $$ Expires:No;;323082 FXUS61 KBTV 310825 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 425 AM EDT Tue Jul 31 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Strengthening high pressure across the western Atlantic will keep warmth across the region well into next week along with increasing humidity levels. The best threat of showers will occur across northern portions of New York and Vermont this morning, then across the entire area on Wednesday and again by Friday. By next weekend generally dry weather returns, though with increasing confidence of very warm to hot temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 333 AM EDT Tuesday...A mainly cloudy morning is unfolding across the area as mid level moisture returns on strengthening southwesterly flow aloft. Indeed, a fairly impressive 100 knot jet near 250 mb continues to build into the northeast this morning. This along with a weaker surge near 850 mb are bolstering modest isentropic lift from 850-700 mb beneath which scattered shower activity has blossomed across northern NY into far western VT. Expect this activity to continue across these areas and into portions of northern VT this morning before waning in coverage by this afternoon as advective processes weaken somewhat. Given a general lack of large scale instability, precipitation will fall mainly as showers, though by this afternoon a few/isolated storms may pop as clouds thin and buoyancy peaks. Areas across the northern SLV and across far southern VT counties to largely stay rain-free today. Given the abundance of morning clouds, I did temper high temperatures back just a bit, going about 2 degrees below blended guidance. This supports readings from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Isolated late afternoon showers then wane for a brief period this evening under partly cloudy skies before a stronger surge of warm advection pushes northeast later tonight when precipitation chances will rise once again. The latest model trends keep the best dynamical forcing across our northern NY counties and points immediately west and highest chance PoPs will be offered in these areas accordingly with VT counties holding mainly dry overnight. Low temperatures to range through the 60s with a few upper 50s far northeast, and a few spot 70F readings in the Champlain Valley. By Wednesday a deeper moisture surge spreads across the area under persistent southwesterly flow aloft. This factor along with weakly diffluent flow ahead of a dampening longwave trough across the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes and some modest instability should be sufficient for better coverage of showers and a few thunderstorms. Deep layer shear will also be fairly robust, though with rather paltry lapse rates aloft convective buoyancy will be modest at best. SPC maintains a marginal severe risk across our area, which seems reasonable at this point with most storms remaining below severe limits. Highs to run seasonably warm from the upper 70s to mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 420 AM EDT Tuesday...Showers will continue into the evening hours Wednesday as a deep moisture plum continues to push north into the region. High pressure from the Bermuda high and an upper level trough will squeeze higher PWATs over the region and lead to some potential of some higher precipitation efficiency from any showers. Anticipated totals range from between 0.1" to as much as 0.5" of rainfall. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to linger into Thursday and Thursday night as the positively tilted trough drifts east. I'd anticipate most of the showers being scattered and not necessarily a washout. The flow at this time will remain out of the southwest and will continue to just pump warmer air into the North Country. 925mb temps support temps in the mid to upper 80s with a spot 90 not really out of the question. A weak cold front finally drags through the Thursday night into Friday and should bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. There's some potential for another surge of rainfall across southern Vermont but I'd like to see some more consistency in that axis of heavy precip. Humidity values will creep up during daytime hours as dew points move into the upper 60s. Unfortunately that will push temps up into the somewhat uncomfortable levels. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 420 AM EDT Tuesday...High pressure dominates into the weekend as chances for showers dwindle over the area. With the high pressure building and warm air advection continuing expect the Champlain Valley to make another run at a heat wave with temps warming into the upper 80s to low 90s. The challenge will be if and how much precip actually falls. The GFS is convecting quite a bit and leads to more showers but I think thats slightly over done. So I've maintained the idea of between 10-20% chances for showers. There's some indication that the ridge will break down coming out of the weekend which may lead to some showers early next week. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Through 00Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR expected through the forecast period as area of BKN/OVC mid level cigs in the 060-120 AGL range affect the area. Within this area of clouds scattered showers to affect KSLK/KPBG and possibly KBTV in the 06-14Z time frame. Brief reductions to visibility into the MVFR range possible with any showers with confidence on occurrence highest at KSLK during this period. Elsewhere mainly dry wx expected. After 18Z skies trend SCT VFR with perhaps a lingering pop-up shower across northern NY. Winds light and variable, trending light southerly in the 4-8 kt range after 12Z before becoming light once again by 00Z Wed. Outlook... Wednesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...JMG - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html