Expires:201808012000;;377617 FPUS51 KBTV 011022 ZFPBTV Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York National Weather Service Burlington VT 619 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018 VTZ006-012000- Lamoille- Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe 619 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018 .TODAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent. .TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely with a slight chance of thunderstorms until midnight, then a chance of showers after midnight. Humid with lows in the upper 60s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent. .THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning, then partly sunny with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Humid with highs in the mid 80s. Light and variable winds, becoming west around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the mid 60s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 50 percent. .FRIDAY...Showers likely. Humid with highs in the upper 70s. Light and variable winds. Chance of rain 70 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the mid 60s. Chance of rain 60 percent. .SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 80s. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 80s. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 60s. .MONDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 80s. Chance of rain 40 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers. Lows in the mid 60s. .TUESDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 80s. Chance of rain 50 percent. $$ Expires:201808011100;;377836 ASUS41 KBTV 011030 RWRBTV VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 600 AM EDT WED AUG 01 2018 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. * THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG. VTZ001>019-011100- _____VERMONT_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURLINGTON FAIR 73 63 70 SE7 30.06S MONTPELIER MOCLDY 61 61 100 CALM 30.16R FOG MORRISVILLE FAIR 60 60 100 CALM 30.11F ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 63 63 100 MISG 30.10F LYNDONVILLE* FAIR 62 60 96 CALM 30.15S MIDDLEBURY* FAIR 68 64 86 CALM 30.10R RUTLAND* FAIR 65 62 90 SE5 30.12S SPRINGFIELD CLOUDY 61 61 100 CALM 30.15R FOG HIGHGATE* FAIR 72 64 78 S8 30.05R NEWPORT* FAIR 61 61 99 SW7 30.12R BENNINGTON FAIR 64 61 90 CALM 30.12S ISLAND POND* N/A 59 N/A N/A CALM N/A GALLUP MILLS* N/A 59 N/A N/A MISG N/A UNION VILLAGE* N/A 61 N/A N/A MISG N/A MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 59 N/A N/A S12 N/A _____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____ CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BURTON ISLAND* N/A 73 64 73 SE15 N/A COLCHESTER RF* N/A 73 66 78 S20 N/A DIAMOND ISL* N/A 72 66 83 S8 N/A $$ Expires:No;;372832 FXUS61 KBTV 010820 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 420 AM EDT Wed Aug 1 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Mid summer conditions will prevail across the region through early next week as strong high pressure remains anchored across the western Atlantic. This will keep warm and humid weather in place through the period, with on and off chances of showers and a few thunderstorms. The highest threat of showers and storms will occur later today, and again by this Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT Wednesday...The forecast remains largely on track for today as southwesterly flow aloft pushes an increasingly moist airmass into our region. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will gradually increase through the day, maximizing into the late afternoon and evening hours as a weak synoptic ripple moves through the flow. SPC maintains a marginal risk for severe weather across our area today, though at this point it appears ambient cloud cover will greatly limit instability. This fact along with rather meager lapse rates aloft warrant omission of any enhanced wording for severe storms in our area with the better threat likely setting up further south down across the northern Mid-Atlantic region. PWAT values surge into the 1.75 to 2 inch range today so any storms that do form have the potential to produce locally heavy downpours. Ambient flow aloft is quite decent however, so they'll be moving along and my feeling is the overall heavy QPF threat isn't overly impressive. Indeed, this morning's global and CAM output shows a real lack in heavier QPF coverage across most of our area today. If one area stands the best potential it would be our far southern VT counties. High temperatures to remain on the seasonably warm side, but not excessively so - mainly mid 70s to lower 80s. With dewpoints climbing well into the 60s to around 70 it will certainly feel quite humid by later this afternoon. Scattered/numerous showers and a few storms this evening then gradually wane in coverage overnight as aforementioned shortwave ripple exits northeast. Clouds will be abundant. There could be some additional activity across the SLV later at night associated with a dampening longwave trough across the eastern Great Lakes, though this appears a conditional threat at this point given lack of agreement in this morning's model output. It will be a warm and muggy night as lows bottom out in the mid 60s to lower 70s with corresponding dewpoints holding in the 60s to around 70. Winds light. By Thursday we remain in deep and moist southwesterly flow aloft on the western side of strengthening high pressure across the western Atlantic. However, large scale forcing mechanisms for convection are rather nondescript and as such have maintained only an outside shot of a widely scattered shower or stray storm through the daylight hours (15-25%). Mean 925 mb thermal profiles warm by 3-5C with maximum surface temperatures responding in kind, climbing through the 80s and a few spots in the Champlain Valley nearing the 90F mark by late afternoon. Variable clouds in the morning should trend mainly partly sunny by afternoon under modest south/southwesterly winds from 6 to 12 mph which will trend a bit gusty in the broad valleys. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...Thursday night will start off with increasing cloudiness and showers. The upper level dynamics significantly improve as an upper level vort max tracks through the region combining with surface lift as we sit under the right entrance region of a 250mb jet. With strong moisture convergence we'll likely see showers and thunderstorms especially across southern Vermont. The overlap of high PWAT (>1.75") and MLCAPE between 1000-1500 J/kg and warm cloud depths of greater than 13,000 feet could lead to some potentially heavy rainfall. The current forecast is for rainfall totals between a half an inch up to an inch across central and southern Vermont. The gradient does look to be quite sharp as the Saint Lawrence Valley might only see a few hundreths whereas southeastern Vermont could see an inch to as much as 1.5" from Thursday night through Friday night. With the cloud cover and rainfall, temperatures will be on the warmer side at night as lows will only fall into the upper 60s to near 70. Those represents departures from normal around of about +10 degrees. During the daytime, highs on Friday should only warm to the low to mid 80s and then again we'll still be above normal Friday night was temps only cool to the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 415 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure starts building Saturday afternoon as the upper level trough flattens out and heights start to build. Warm air advection continues and with mid level moisture drying out it looks like temps will push into the mid to upper 80s to near 90 heading into the weekend. By Sunday I'd anticipate we'll see temps back in the Champlain Valley back into the 90s. Low 90s combined with mid 60s dew points lead to heat indexes creeping back into the 90s again and so I'd imagine A/C will be in full force again. Coming out of the weekend temps will still be uncomfortably warm as 925mb temps 24-25C supporting low 90s again. So we'll be on the verge of another heat wave as we should see at least two days above 90 so we'll see if Tuesday will also end up in the 90s. With that amount of heat we'll see some potential for some diurnally driven showers but we'll start capped and so I tried to downplay the amount of showers that the GFS is depicting on Monday. Towards the middle of next week we'll see another upper level shortwave trough swing through and bring another shot of showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 06Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through 18Z with thickening mid to high clouds across the area. Winds light through 12Z, trending southerly from 6-12 kts and occasionally gusty into the 15-20 kt range at KPBG/KBTV by this afternoon. From 18Z onward cigs continue to slowly lower as scattered showers push into the region. Best shower coverage to generally occur from 20Z onward into the evening hours. Cigs to generally remain VFR at KBTV/KPBG/KMSS with higher probabilities of MVFR at KSLK/KRUT/KMPV. Confidence highest at KMPV. Storm prediction center maintains a marginal risk of severe storms across our area this afternoon/evening, but confidence of severe development remains low at this time, and given stabilizing effects of current cloud cover feel the storm threat in general is on the lower side. As such have omitted any reference to -TSRA and resultant CB in the forecasts at this point. Outlook... Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...Deal LONG TERM...Deal AVIATION...JMG - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - SkiVt-L is brought to you by the University of Vermont. To unsubscribe, visit http://list.uvm.edu/archives/skivt-l.html