Or you could wait for mid-to-late October, when there are enough data to accurately forecast general trends for the early winter season, rather than looking for the True Answer in the ENSO like drunks looking under the only streetlight around for their lost car keys .

- Patrick

On Tue, Jul 31, 2018 at 9:52 PM, Mark P. Renson <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
Yeah, yeah, I know - I gotta' outgrow that dum-a$$ mental block I have about Whistler......

As for El Nino/La Nina years: http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm they don't seem to correlate to the Northeast.  El Nino is supposed to cause weak winters in British Columbia but we had deep snow in mid December at Snowfall Lodge in 2015 (Very Strong El Nino). 

I see some weak El Ninos associated with lousy snow years in the American West: 1977, 2005, 2015. I've never been really too confident of El Nino/La Nina connection with winters though it's been know to be spot on ...... though not always.
 
Mark P. Renson


On Tuesday, July 31, 2018 4:20 PM, Miguel Naughton <[log in to unmask]> wrote:


Leigh wrote:

>El Nino years are usually slow-starting warm wipe-outs seasons in the east, intermountain west (scarce snow and warm in northern CO through Banff), OR and WA (warm and rainy).

As far as I can tell, it's not sure that it will be an El Nino winter.  If the El Nino develops, it seems likely to be a weak El Nino.  Most of what I know comes from this: https://twitter.us18.list-manage.com/track/click?u=92fd2e3ec7962cda008f0732a&id=6a3eb8baf7&e=f3a9e19db3

Please elaborate if you disagree.

Mig

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