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Expires:201809272000;;277242
FPUS51 KBTV 270733
ZFPBTV

Zone Forecast Product for Vermont and Northern New York
National Weather Service Burlington VT
330 AM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018


VTZ006-272000-
Lamoille-
Including the cities of Johnson and Stowe
330 AM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.TODAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. Light and variable
winds. 
.TONIGHT...Cloudy. A slight chance of light rain until midnight,
then a chance of light rain after midnight. Lows around 50. Light
and variable winds. Chance of rain 50 percent. 
.FRIDAY...Cloudy with a chance of light rain in the morning, then
partly sunny with a slight chance of light rain in the afternoon.
Highs in the lower 60s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain
50 percent. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 40s. Southwest winds around 10 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the upper 50s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
25 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows around 40. 
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the mid 40s. 
.MONDAY...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs in the
upper 50s. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers.
Lows in the upper 40s. 
.TUESDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the lower 60s. Chance of rain
70 percent. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Showers likely. Lows in the lower 50s. Chance of
rain 70 percent. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers. Highs
in the mid 60s. 

$$


Expires:201809271100;;284789
ASUS41 KBTV 271030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2018

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.

* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
  REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.


VTZ001>019-271100-
_____VERMONT_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURLINGTON     FAIR      54  49  83 CALM      30.12R                  
MONTPELIER     FAIR      48  48 100 CALM      30.14R                  
MORRISVILLE    FAIR      47  47 100 CALM      30.12R                  
ST. JOHNSBURY*   N/A     49  49 100 MISG      30.10R                  
LYNDONVILLE*   FAIR      47  45  93 CALM      30.13R                  
MIDDLEBURY*    MOCLDY    49  49  97 CALM      30.13R                  
RUTLAND*       FAIR      51  51 100 CALM      30.12R                  
SPRINGFIELD    FAIR      51  51 100 CALM      30.11R                  
HIGHGATE*      CLOUDY    50  47  88 CALM      30.13R                  
NEWPORT*       FAIR      43  43 100 CALM      30.14R                  
BENNINGTON     FAIR      50  48  93 CALM      30.12R                  
ISLAND POND*     N/A     43 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   
GALLUP MILLS*    N/A     43 N/A N/A MISG        N/A                   
LAKE EDEN*       N/A     45 N/A N/A CALM        N/A                   

_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____

  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BURTON ISLAND*   N/A     57  50  77 NW1         N/A                   
COLCHESTER RF*   N/A     57  50  77 NW10        N/A                   
DIAMOND ISL*     N/A     57  46  67 W10         N/A                   

$$


Expires:No;;280028
FXUS61 KBTV 270828
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
428 AM EDT Thu Sep 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will be near normal today with dry conditions
prevailing as mid and high level clouds impact the region.
Tonight these clouds will lower with light rain overspreading
central and southern Vermont into parts of the northern
Adirondack Mountains by Friday morning. This light rain will
exit our forecast area by midday Friday with temperatures
holding mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Another weak front
produces additional showers late Friday night into Saturday,
with fall like temperatures prevailing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...1022mb high pres builds into our cwa
today, but southwest flow aloft will continue to advect mid and
upper level clouds, especially across our central/eastern fa.
The sky cover will be very challenging today with models showing
deep 850 to 500mb dry layer, but soundings show increasing upper
level moisture on progressive southwest flow aloft. So thinking
partly to mostly sunny this morning, will become mostly cloudy
this aftn, especially central/eastern cwa. Temps will be very
close to normal today with highs upper 50s to upper 60s
depending upon elevation. Some changes to forecast tonight into
Friday, which include increasing pops. Latest trends have been
to shift energy/moisture further north, which results in likely
to cat 60 to 80% pops central/southern cwa. Water vapor shows
short wave energy across the central MS Valley will race
northeast in the progressive southwest flow aloft, while weak
sfc low pres develops over the mid Atlantic into southern New
England. In addition, GFS/NAM show a band of moderate fgen
forcing lifting from eastern NY into Rutland/Windsor Counties
late tonight into Friday, helping to enhance lift for precip.
Thinking a sharp south to north qpf gradient will occur with
this system, given progged rh and omega fields. I have <0.05
near the international border to 0.25 to 0.50 across
Rutland/Windsor Counties thru midday Friday. Temps will be based
on clouds/precip with lows mainly upper 40s to mid 50s tonight
and mid 50s to near 70f on Friday. Warmest values over the slv,
where clouds/precip will be limited and coolest southern
sections.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 424 AM EDT Thursday...Another short wave will move through the
region late Friday night into Saturday morning. At the surface a
cold front will be passing through the north country reaching BTV
around 9z Sat accompanied by a decent chance of showers especially
across northern NY with lesser chances across northern VT. The low-
level flow quickly becomes NW with cold dry advection which 
should put a quick end to most of the showers by 12z Sat. Low 
temperatures with the clouds and showers will be close to normal
in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

With the NW flow early Saturday there could be some upslope showers
lingering behind the front but things should dry out rather quickly
leaving a thin layer of stratocumulus clouds from the cold slightly
unstable profiles so the clouds could persist into the afternoon
across the north. Have NW winds around 10 knots with some peak gusts
near 20 kts in the morning to early afternoon. High temps will be in
the mid 50s to lower 60s as 925mb temps range from 6C in the north
to 10C in the south and 850 temps drop to around 0C north and 4C
south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 424 AM EDT Thursday...High pressure will move over the region
by Sunday for a crisp cool late September day with lows in the 30s
and highs in the 50s to around 60 with light winds.

Eventually by Monday a large slightly anomalously warm upper level
ridge bridges across the southern US forcing the large slightly
anomalously cool Canadian vortex to retreat northward leaving 
our region in a fast westerly flow aloft. The clash of the cool 
airmass across to the north and warm airmass over the southern 
US takes up residence over our area with a quasi-stationary 
frontal system which oscillates north and south across the 
region Monday through Wed. Periods of temperature and moisture 
advection will lead to chances of rain/showers for the period. 
With the front in the region there will be a large spread 
surface temperature possibilities depending what side of the 
front we are on. For now just forecasting a blend forecast 
temperatures with highs mainly in the mid 50s to mid 60s and 
lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions are anticipated the next 24
hours at all taf sites. The combination of high clouds and low 
level cold air advection on northwest winds should prevent 
fog/low clouds from developing this morning. Expect maybe a 
brief period of mvfr cigs at slk early this morning. Otherwise,
soundings and ir sat shows plenty of mid/upper level clouds 
streaming across our taf sites today, with cigs lowering toward 
sunset this evening. Winds northwest at 5 to 15 knots will 
become light and variable as sfc high pres builds into our taf 
sites. 

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Sisson
LONG TERM...Sisson
AVIATION...Taber

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